Well, I am comforted to learn that Professor Alan Lichtman has predicted that Joe Biden will win the presidency. He’s picked the winner (including Gore in 2000) in every election since 1984, and I see little reason to doubt him now. Watching him go through his 13 keys to winning a presidential election, I can see why it’s difficult for challengers to beat incumbents. Biden barely passed the test, seven to six, in spite of everything.
Lichtman doesn’t look at surveys at all, but Trump’s net disapprovals are currently in the high teens. Even Rasmussen has Biden winning by three points, and the general consensus is considerably higher, sometimes ranging into double figures. Key states are looking uniformly bad for the president and, according to the FiveThirtyEight average of polls, Biden is even ahead by one tenth of one percent in Texas. The Economist says Biden has a 97 percent chance of winning the popular vote and an 88 percent chance of winning the election.
There are certainly things that can still go wrong, but it’s hard to project Trump doing anything to improve his standing with the electorate. Voter suppression, tabulation tampering, foreign meddling, or major missteps by the Biden campaign could make this a close election, but everything points to a Trump loss.
Interestingly, two of Lichtman’s keys focus on the respective charisma of the candidates. He gives both Trump and Biden a failing grade: Biden because he’s too vanilla and Trump because his appeal is too narrow. But Lichtman never mentions running mates. For him, vice-presidential candidates do not have even the slightest significance in his projection.
I can’t say that I’m that indifferent to who Biden chooses, but I agree that his decision is unlikely to change the ultimate outcome of the election. Maybe there’s more negative potential than positive, but I see little reason to fight or obsess over the issue. People tend to cast their vote for or against the person in the top position, and this election more than any other in my lifetime seems to be a pure referendum on the incumbent.
The only reason to care much about Biden’s running mate is that they might become president some day. I doubt they will prevent Biden from becoming president, so I have trouble getting too worked up about it.
I think the VP selection should more or less be the leftist of Republican nightmares. The chances of Biden dying in office aren’t bad and then we could finally get the Trotsky of our dreams. It would desensitize the public even further to the Socialism smear and open up possibilities further down the road.
This is probably tongue in cheek but Trotskyites are some annoying motherfuckers.
Once we eliminate social class inequality, everything else will get sorted out. Our good Comrades have called it a slam dunk. Okay. They didn’t use that term in the 19th century or even early 20th century USSR, but, you get the drift. Besides, who needs Florida?
I hope for Warren or someone else with strong liberal credentials. I’m afraid Biden will pick Harris.
I’d obviously be happy with Warren. But I honestly don’t care much at all.
Trump declared his intention to pick Supreme Court justices approved by the Federalist Society. Biden should declare his intention to pick a black woman to the Court (or Barack Obama), Kamala Harris as Attorney General, Susan Rice as Secretary of State, and his own personal choice as VP. I like Harris, because she knows where the money is, and she knows how to get under Trump’s skin.
I agree, it doesn’t matter much. It generates one news cycle and then people mostly forget and move on. I do like Harris. But I don’t dislike the others.
I hope Lichtman’s streak holds up. My life and livelihood depend on it. I just remember something my dad would say: you’re right until you’re wrong. Whether you use strictly some form of historical evidence or rely on statistical analyses (I’m more likely the latter), I like Biden’s odds. One thing I don’t know, and it’s embarrassing given my love of data analyses, is there any info on the impact of a VP pick? In 2008, I was expecting a much closer contest between McCain and Obama, until McCain picked Palin. She immediately made it known she was nuttier than a fruitcake. Biden has historically not been a great campaigner, and his ability to keep his speech impediment in check is diminishing a bit. It happens. His mental acuity is unchanged, but he’s more gaffe prone than ever. I’ve spent plenty of time with aging relatives, and understand. It’s frustrating to still have the knowledge and skills necessary to function under conditions of stress, and yet no longer quite pull off the appearance of doing so. Since he’s already presented himself as a transitional President (assuming elected, which seems a good bet – and one on which I will put money), the VP pick is a bit more consequential. A solid governmental track record helps a lot, given that’s been lacking for nearly four years. Charisma will matter too. The ability to give the stink-eye to any b.s. opponents try to spew is a definite plus. Age matters too. It’s time to pass the torch to Gen X. Personally, I would love to see Harris get the nod. I’m not really in the K-Hive camp, but she’s probably his strongest choice. I honestly believe Biden has at least one term in him. And I’ve probably stated somewhere on Twitter that I see him as a likely FDR figure, given our circumstances. I want a VP who knows how to hit the ground running. If she can do that, I’m good.
I don’t rate election prediction “models” at all. Lichtman’s prediction is meaningless to me. I will give him credit for actually making predictions, rather than calling post-hoc analyses such.