In a Saturday email, Biden campaign manager Jennifer O’Malley Dillon urges supporters not to be complacent and says the race is much closer than the public polls indicate, “We are not ahead by double digits. Those are inflated national public polling numbers.” She argues that they’re only leading by three points in some key battleground states, and emphasizes that polls can be off, as they were four years ago, and that Trump can still come from behind.
Yet, at one point she relents in her alarmism: “I know we’re going to win Arizona.”
Arizona is a key state. Here’s an example that demonstrates the point. If Biden flips just Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona and all the other results remain the same from 2016, that would result in a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College, and the whole thing would go to the House of Representatives. Of course, if Biden were also to win Maine’s 2nd congressional district, that would be sufficient to give him a 270-268 victory.
It’s not clear that Biden would win in the House of Representatives. Each state will vote based on how many members of each party are in their delegation, and right now the Republicans have more state majorities than the Democrats despite being in a rather deep minority overall. The exact ratio will change after the election, but Biden really can’t rely on winning a tied race.
Still, winning Arizona could get him to a tie even if he loses Pennsylvania, Florida and North Carolina, where he leads, and states like Ohio, Georgia, and Iowa where the race is extremely tight. If Biden has Arizona locked up, he’s in pretty solid shape.
O’Malley Dillon’s advice is both prudent and wise. No one should be complacent. But it’s clear that Trump is facing a very difficult task.
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Plenty of reason for cautious optimism. There’s been tentative good news in the polls and in early voting. Avoid complacency. I made a plan to vote a good while back, and although I realize there is no hope that my deep red state will suddenly turn blue, driving up the popular vote for Biden/Harris will help. And there are some down ballot candidates and initiatives that deserve my attention. Those who live in my state’s second district have a long-shot but credible chance to flip that district blue. There may be some state legislative seats that can flip, thus loosening the GOP’s grip a bit (not having super-majorities would be a start, anyway). For those in more purple states, vote early if possible. Don’t act like this is in the bag. It ain’t until the votes are counted.
It’s a real shame that there hasn’t been better polling in states like UT and AR. They might be silent sleepers this time, like IN in 08.
I’m just curious if you’ve ever been to Utah, and Salt Lake City in particular. It’s beautiful, and the people are very nice.
But there are certain physical characteristics that do not fill a person with confidence in their intellectual capacity.
From 6-9 in the morning every single MacDonalds in the state has a drive through that quite literally goes around the block. I’m not kidding. Around the block, straight through intersections. Or talk to the Park Rangers at the National Monuments. They are surrounded, and they know it.
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Hi Nalbar,
I have only been to eastern Utah very briefly (for 1 day) to visit Arches national park. That’s a great place. I do want to visit SLC one day. I love the Mountain west. Very different scenery to here in the Appalachians.
I was just at Arches last year. One tip……Sept is peach season in that area. Grown in west Colorado, sold through the region, including Moab. You’ll never eat a better peach.
But Utah will be the last state to go blue. They already belong to a cult, so hypocrisy is in their blood. And the grooming they receive from childbirth makes them receptive.
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What to make of THIS?
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Kenehora! That’s what my grandparents would have said. It’s Yiddish, a guttural version of the German, kayn ayin hara — literally “no evil eye”. Basically it means don’t count your damn chickens before the eggs hatch. That’s the literal meaning. It arises from an idea that it’s a form of arrogance to know the mind of God and that when we behave as though we know, God shuffles the deck.
Call it superstition but it’s definitely my experience. Also brings to mind another Yiddish proverb: “Mensch tracht, un Gott lacht”. People make plans and God laughs. In completely practical, secular terms it’s the story of the tortoise and the hair. In other words, let’s just keep our eye on the fucking ball!
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538 has Biden winning 87 out of 100, and also the senate but only on the slimmest of margins but there is a chance in Alaska, Kansas and Montana.
If you have not seen it, get The NY Times today.the Editorial Board has taken all ten pages of the Sunday Review section to make the case against Donald Trump. Awesome. “ A man unworthy of the office he holds.”