Sean Trende of RealClearPolitics doesn’t understand why the media believe the Republicans are favored to win the January 5th runoff Senate elections in Georgia, and I don’t understand it either. I think the races should be considered pure toss-ups.
Trende identifies six reasons to doubt that David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler are in a clear winning position against their respective opponents, filmmaker Jon Ossoff and Rev. Raphael Warnock. It begins with that fact that the Republicans candidates are garbage. Both are implicated in using early insider knowledge about the COVID-19 pandemic to make stock trades while neglecting to warn their constituents about the coming dangers, which have now resulted in a quarter million American deaths. Perdue has only won one political campaign in his life, and he severely underperformed. Loeffler was appointed to her Senate seat and has never run a successful campaign. At least she’s agreed to debate Warnock on December 6th. After Perdue was humiliated in his last debate against Ossoff, he didn’t show up for a scheduled November 1 debate and now refuses to do any more.
The Republicans comfort themselves that their garbage candidates have a big advantage, in that Democrats are traditionally less inclined to vote in runoffs than in general elections, and this is true. But, as Trende points out, the Democratic base is different now than in the past. When Democratic Sen. Wyche Fowler lost a runoff election to Republican Paul Coverdell in 1992, Georgia was not yet a technology hub filled with northern transplants, and when Democrat Jim Martin badly lost a runoff against Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss in 2008, the Atlanta suburbs were a source of GOP strength rather than weakness. The Democrats’ urban base remains the same and may be difficult to mobilize, but white low-propensity voters now make up a big chunk of the Republican base, while reliable suburban voters are key to the Democrats’ success. There’s no convincing reason to believe the GOP still has an inherent turnout advantage, and even if they do it is probably less pronounced than in the past.
As Trende notes, in these particular elections, the Democrats benefit from the fact that Ossoff has natural strength in the suburbs and Warnock, who is the pastor at Martin Luther King Jr.’s Ebenezer Baptist Church, will mobilize the black vote. They complement each other in a way that Loeffler and Perdue do not, particularly after Loeffler abandoned her suburban-focused appeal to fend off a primary challenge from Doug Collins on her right.
Then there is the Trump factor, which can really be broken into two parts. A lot will depend on what Trump does between now and the January 5 elections, and a lot will depend on how the electorate responds when the president is not on the ballot. Before we get into that, though, it’s important to remember that Trump lost Georgia to Joe Biden while Perdue won a plurality against Ossoff and Loeffler and Collins combined got more votes than Warnock and the other Democratic candidates in that contest. Trump may not be much of an asset.
Still, as Byron York points out in the Washington Examiner, the working theory of the GOP is that Trump needs to aggressively campaign for Perdue and Loeffler or they’ll lose. The basic idea is that most Republicans are now taking their cues from the president, and they won’t be nearly as motivated to turn out without him on the ticket. They also have reason to be dispirited about Trump’s loss and are inclined to believe it when he says that the election was rigged against him. If Trump doesn’t make an urgent and sustained case for Perdue and Loeffler, his base may decide not to participate in a vote that may not be winnable because of Democratic cheating.
On the flip side, however, more Democrats express joy about Trump losing than Biden winning, and they too may be less inclined to turn out when the president is not on the ballot. The more Trump takes a personal interest in the two races, the more motivated the Democratic base will be to stick it to him. More importantly, a lot of suburban Georgians voted against Trump but for the Republican Senate candidates. The more they associate Perdue and Loeffler with Trump, the more inclined they’ll be to change their votes in the runoff. Also, the more they realize that Biden’s presidency will be handicapped by a Mitch McConnell-led Senate, the less they may be disposed to want that outcome.
The final wildcard is Trump’s posture as his presidency comes to an end. Will he ever concede? Will he continue to attack Georgia’s Republican governor and Republican Secretary of State? Will his inattention to the COVID-19 outbreak, which is currently surging everywhere, suppress in the in-person (only) vote and further advantage the Democrats’ vote-by-mail advantage?
It seem’s a very unsafe bet to rely on Trump to bring the Georgia Republicans victory.
The most recent poll confirms my suspicion that these contests should be regarded as toss-ups:
In the regular Senate race, Sen. David Perdue (R) and Democrat Jon Ossoff are tied with 49 percent support, with just 2 percent of voters still undecided. And in the special race to fill retired Sen. Johnny Isakson’s seat, Democrat Raphael Warnock narrowly beats Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R), 49-48. Just 3 percent of voters are undecided in that race.
Considering the Republicans over-performance against the polls in the November 3 elections, the Democrats should assume they’ll doing three or four points worse than this, probably from differential response rates from the two respective political bases. Still, the runoff turnout model will be quite different, and anyone who thinks they can make a confident prediction about that is overconfident in their own clairvoyance.
A true wild card is that the timing of certification, and thus a Trump meltdown, aligns with the meat of the campaign. Trump will eat his own first. We can all hope that the two Republican candidates get pulled into defending the biggest whinny ass titty baby America has ever produced.
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I’m concerned that many voters wanted the split party outcome due to a misunderstanding of how checks and balances work. I think a lot of people think that if you have a Democratic president you need to have a Republic House and Senate to keep them in check. And maybe in a situation where you have one party which doesn’t care about the law that’s probably true (as we recently saw). But I think the intention of the design of the system was that members of one’s own party would police you which is obviously not what’s happened recently.
I agree with Rachel Bitecofer that they have to nationalize the elections and connect these two races to control of the Senate. It’s all about turnout.
It’s Georgia, so it’s still safe to bet that Republicans will be picking up both seats. Not guaranteed, but a safe bet.
That said, with Abrams putting in the work getting people registered and educated, hopefully we can pick up both seats and give Harris a full-time job in the Senate.
Honestly, they should just say loud and proud, that the only way anyone is getting any kind of COVID stimulus is if Ossoff and Warnock win…because it’s true. Anyone worried that it sounds like “socialism” is underestimating how many people believe that the government should be helping them during a situation like this.
I know I’ll be voting on December 14th and hoping that the Democratic turnout increases from the November election, and that Republicans stay home because the Democrats have rigged it anyway.
December 14th? Is that when mail in ballot voting starts? I thought the actual voting date is Jan 5?
I vote in-person, because I want my vote to count. That’s when early voting starts for the runoff.
This will be a turnout election. I donated what I could to one of the orgs involved in turnout in GA. I hope it helps. I hope my Georgian friends have got this one under control. Abrams has built one heck of a machine. In the meantime, take nothing for granted. Vote early if at all possible. If mail in is possible, do that. Just get the ballot mailed off very early, as the ponies seem to run a bit slow these days. Show up on more time, and we can put a lid on 2020. Candidates? Please focus on kitchen table issues and COVID-19. Getting the stimulus needed to rebuild the real economy (the actual folks who own small businesses, punch the clock for work in various sectors, etc.) requires the sort of heroic effort only possible if the Senate can have a Democratic majority. It really is that simple. Purdue and Loeffler will be fine. They’ll get lobbyist gigs or thinktank gigs that will allow them to ride out their miserable careers into retirement. We need some new blood, and Georgia’s our shot.
Since Trump doesn’t seem to be conceding and will continue to be the fascist he is, this should keep the Dems energized. The R SoS there I think it was, who said Trump’s attacks on mail in voting cost him 10k votes. I hear that at least 600k people have already requested absentee ballots, keep an eye on this number. I believe in Abrams. But the R side of the picture is whether Trump burns it all down, meaning he attacks the R candidates between now and election day. Nonzero chance of that. He might do it out of spite.
The rationale is pretty clear to me:
1) Perdue won more votes than Trump, and beat Ossoff’s total by ~2%.
2) In the special election, the collective (R) share was 49.3 against the (D) share of 48.4.
These are not unsurmountable margins but you have to conclude that the Republicans hold an edge here.
The rationale is pretty clear to me:
1) Perdue won more votes than Trump, and beat Ossoff’s total by 1.9%.
2) In the special election, the collective (R) share was 49.3 against the (D) share of 48.4.
These are not unsurmountable margins but you have to conclude that the Republicans hold an edge here.
3. It’s Georgia.