McKay Coppins reports for The Atlantic that Republican strategists are planning to pretend that the presidency of Donald Trump never happened. If that’s true, it seems like an impeachment conviction is a prerequisite. If you don’t believe me, consider that Eugene Debs, running on the Socialist Party ticket, won nearly one million votes in the 1920 presidential election, and he was locked up for sedition at the time. If convicted by the Senate, Trump could be denied the right to ever hold another federal position or office. If acquitted, he could run for president again even if he’s in prison.

It won’t be possible for the Republican Party to get beyond Trump if he’s still a candidate for their nomination. In fact, even if he just floats the idea, it will be paralyzing for the GOP. But if he’s precluded from serving, that will make it possible to pretend he never served in the first place.

I honestly can’t see any reason for Mitch McConnell to leave the door open for a Trump comeback, but if he makes that mistake he’ll deserve what comes next. I’m not certain, but I believe McConnell retains enough power and influence in the Senate Republican caucus to get a conviction if he wants one. I think the logic laid out above is pretty compelling and will make sense even to folks like Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley who sided with Trump and helped incite the Capitol insurrection. They did so because they have presidential aspirations, and Trump stands in the way of those aspirations.

I don’t know that Cruz and Hawley would pivot on a dime and convict Trump. In truth, they may have destroyed their political careers irreparably, and can’t solve their problems no matter how they vote. The rest of the Republican caucus, however, can strategize more freely, and they can’t get beyond Trump by defending him and keeping his future political prospects alive.