I have no reason to doubt the findings of a new study by Massachusetts Institute of Technology researchers that examines how COVID-19 is transmitted in indoor spaces. In fact, the findings comport with what I surmised or at least intuitively believed from an early stage of the pandemic.
The first outbreaks I examined involved cruise ships, one particular woman who served as a super-spreader in South Korea, and the outbreak in Washington state, which included a choir practice. From all of those examples, I concluded that transmission was primarily airborne and based on the concentration or build up of viral particulates in the air. That didn’t mean we couldn’t get infected in the more traditional way, by touching a water faucet or door knob, but it meant that the early focus on disinfecting surfaces was at least insufficient to provide protection.
Health authorities were very late in coming to this conclusion, in part I believe because they understood how economically disruptive it would be if they told people it is unsafe to gather indoors. But I, as a non-scientist, was convinced of the danger from nearly the beginning and acted accordingly.
I studied whatever I could find on how air moves when people breath, and I concluded that outdoor activities were almost certainly safe, which is why I allowed my son to play baseball and soccer throughout 2020 and beginning again in February of 2021. I did not allow him to attend indoor practices, although I’ve recently relented on a weekly baseball practice with a lone instructor which is conducted in a very large high-ceilinged gym.
The MIT findings give me some pause on that decision, as it’s clear that 60 feet of distance isn’t any safer than six feet in indoor spaces. But, ultimately, it’s very hard for me to picture how viral particulates could become concentrated in that gym. It also helps that everyone in the family except my son is now vaccinated.
The authors of the study make an important point when they suggest that we can use carbon dioxide levels as a proxy for determining the risk level of indoor spaces. This tells us how much exhaled air is circulating, and it’s not hard to envision how some rooms might quickly become dangerous while others almost certainly won’t, particularly if fresh air is constantly introduced. Just picture astronauts trapped in a small capsule without fresh oxygen. The carbon dioxide buildup from their exhalations will eventually overwhelm them, and it won’t matter if they keep six feet of distance from each other.
I do worry that the study’s findings will be misused. The tenor of the CNBC article cited above is that we’re overreacting and keeping too many businesses shuttered or restricted. But the results actually show that in one important way, indoor spaces areĀ moreĀ dangerous than previously believed. Social distancing is not very helpful if you’re in a room with a high concentration of COVID-19 circulating, especially if you spend a lot of time in that space. So, you might keep your distance from everyone else while you’re in the store, but if the store has low ceilings and poor circulation, it’s still quite risky to linger. You definitely would not want to work there.
The findings also confirm that outdoors spaces are extremely safe, although infection is still possible if two people are close enough for long enough. Variants are also a concern, as some are substantially more transmissible. I assume this simply means that infection can occur at lower concentrations, so what might have been safe last year might not be safe this year or in the near future.
The vaccines seem to reduce the likelihood of infection and also to vastly reduce the lethality of infection, so they are the best protection available. Still, they’re not foolproof, so the best idea is to choose your indoor activities carefully and to get in and get out whenever you can. Sitting through a two-hour movie is probably an unnecessary risk, but briskly walking through the grocery store is probably fine, especially if you’ve been vaccinated.
Vaccines are also important for limiting how many variants emerge and for hopefully getting the COVID-19 genie back in the bottle at some point through herd immunity. So, please get vaccinated. And, be smart. You don’t need to stress about every single thing, but having good information about how the disease spreads can help you make good decisions.
I don’t understand how people are so scared of this virus after vaccination. We accept that we go to the gym or the theatre in flu season without masks, and the chance of serious complications from flu is much higher than the chance someone who is fully vaccinated against Covid will need hospitalization. Why the double standard? Once vaccinated, please, please stop worrying and enjoy your lives. I beg of you to stop worrying once vaccinated about any of this.
This is mostly true, but there are complications. The variants are a wildcard. Also, it’s possible to transmit the virus to someone even if you’re vaccinated, and my son is too young to get a vaccination. So, I’m not going to just go about my life as if exposure to the virus is something I don’t need to worry about at all. I’m still going to keep my risk low until I know either my community has very little spread or he’s been vaccinated.
But in general, the vaccinations will keep you alive, at least for now. So, yes, it can be treated as a flu-level like risk.
Sure, I mean there are limits to everything. I wouldn’t be in a rush to get in any mosh pits when there’s community transmission occurring. Not because I’d be afraid of getting serious complications, but just because I’d rather not get sick. But ordinary life – going to baseball events, for example, or even indoor basketball – those seem very low risk to me and I’d gladly take it.
The variants always get a lot of play, but reality is that T-cell immunity is quite robust against all variants to date; indeed all the doomerism there has thus far not been warranted, and I REALLY fear what happens because of our under-selling of the vaccines. To the best of our knowledge, they not only stop death and disease, they also stop transmission, to a great extent. They really are a marvel, and the quicker we tell everyone ‘get your vaccine and once we hit 75%, everyone throw away their masks’, the quicker we will actually get 75% of people vaccinated. Public messaging has to be relentlessly positive if we are to make it out of this.
Sure, I mean there are limits to everything. I wouldn’t be in a rush to get in any mosh pits when there’s community transmission occurring. Not because I’d be afraid of getting serious complications, but just because I’d rather not get sick. But ordinary life – going to baseball events, for example, or even indoor basketball – those seem very low risk to me and I’d gladly take it.
The variants always get a lot of play, but reality is that T-cell immunity is quite robust against all variants to date; indeed all the doomerism there has thus far not been warranted, and I REALLY fear what happens because of our under-selling of the vaccines. To the best of our knowledge, they not only stop death and disease, they also stop transmission, to a great extent. They really are a marvel, and the quicker we tell everyone how good they are and how quickly we can resume much of our old lives, the better off everyone will be.
I still put on a mask if I am going to be inside a grocery store, or if I go into a restaurant that does not appear at full capacity (done that a couple times this month). Same with my workplace. Buildings are not exactly new, and ventilation systems were not designed with the coronavirus in mind. So, still working remotely for a bit longer, but I do go to the office from time to time. Outdoor exercise? I don’t worry about so much. I am glad that I am vaccinated, as is my spouse. I have one adult child who got vaccinated. But I have another adult child who will take a hot minute to convince (needle phobia is a thing) and a teen who is now just old enough for the vaccines. Once we all get vaccinated, I will be a bit more comfortable. I am also trying to keep tabs on how well my state and area are doing on getting people vaccinated. We get to around that 70% mark? I probably will be willing to enjoy some more that seems to resemble normal.