The Republicans will never, ever, support a voting rights bill. They’re only interested in limiting and controlling who can vote. They see this is as just as vital to their party’s success as recruiting candidates, raising money and developing a message. Elections are won and lost as much by the rules of play as the parties’ performance on the field, and the GOP understands this. The Democrats understand it, too, which is why their proposals are largely aimed at killing the Republicans’ ability to fuck around with the rules.
But the Democrats don’t have the votes to pull this off. They certainly cannot attract the 10 Republican senators they’d need to defeat a filibuster. That’s a given. And, even if they could eliminate the filibuster (which they can’t), they don’t have the fifty votes they would need to pass the bill through the Senate on a strict-majority vote.
That’s checkmate. So, what’s the path forward?
It seems obvious to me that if the goal is to actually pass something as opposed to making a big stink about why the Republicans are standing in the way, then they have to convince all 50 Democratic senators to gut the filibuster, as least for votes pertaining to the fundamental right to vote. That might not be possible, but they have to explore what it would take. The two most outspoken opponents of doing this in the Democratic caucus are Sens. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona and Joe Manchin of West Virginia. At this point, they’d be going back on a promise to voters not to support a change in the filibuster rule. They’d need a very easy to understand reason for reversing themselves.
That probably means the Democrats have to let the Republicans block their first effort. Manchin and Sinema could insist that the Republicans allow debate on the issue, while also arguing that they don’t support the bill as it is constructed and will demand some changes. Then, if the Republicans insist on filibustering, Manchin and Sinema could use their intransigence as their rationale for breaking the previous commitment to the filibuster.
I don’t see any alternative that offers even a sliver of hope for success.
Even under my scenario, this means that progressives are not going to get anything close to what they want, and that’s bad news for the Democratic Party and every citizen who relies on their protection. I can’t really argue with Ezra Levin on this point when he says that passing COVID-19 relief and infrastructure and family-friendly legislation through reconciliation is not enough:
“No amount of reconciliation success will excuse Democrats’ failure on this front and they will go down in history as the ‘peace in our time’ party of appeasers in an era of rising racist fascism,” said Ezra Levin, co-executive director of Indivisible, a progressive group.
It’s really essential that the Democrats take action to protect voting rights because if they lose our democracy because they wouldn’t protect the rules of the game, then that will be their last act as a meaningful political party.
But they can’t wave a magic wand. If they can’t get a perfect result, they need to pursue the best result they can get and then pray that it’s adequate. In this case, this is probably a watered-down bill and it’s probably only after a painful kabuki theater in which they make a big show of inviting bipartisan support.
If you’re going to pray for something, it helps if there is a chance your prayer might be answered.
Damn depressing but true. Democracy may have died when we failed to take 50 Senate seats on election day. If Manchin came around Simena would too.
I always greatly appreciate the activist pragmatism of this blog & this is a great example. There is no “Pie in the sky” that’s gonna save us & the country, only hard, practical work making “good trouble”. The wonderful Jason Johnson seems to think when it comes to nut-cutting ol’ Joe Manchin’s ego & star chasing won’t let him turn away from a once in a generation opportunity to become deliciously venerated. It doesn’t hurt that WV needs govt help more than any other state. Their voters haven’t shown themselves wedded to ReThugs faux debt dogma, though Manchin often gives it more than lip service. It appears obvious he genuinely cares for his constituents & has shown signs of ditching that political red herring.