It’s not an exaggeration to say that Biden’s presidency depends on the outcome of a dispute among Democrats in the House of Representatives. If he doesn’t prevail on a clique of moderate Democrats to support his legislative plan for both infrastructure and budget reconciliation, his first and most critical year in office will collapse into complete failure and there will be little hope of resurrecting his administration or holding onto power in Congress. Considering how dangerous the current iteration of the Republican Party is, it’s not too much to say that the fate of the world will turn on the outcome.
According to reporting from Roll Call, there are nine Democrats (and probably more who are keeping quiet) who are not willing to pass the budget reconciliation bill unless they are first allowed to vote on the bipartisan INVEST in America Act infrastructure bill that the Senate passed 69-30 on August 10th.
However, there’s a much larger contingent of Democrats who will not vote for the INVEST Act unless the budget plan is agreed to first. The math is problematic because the Democratic majority is so thin that Speaker Pelosi can afford to lose no more than three votes. If she can’t find a way to make the moderates blink, neither bill will pass and combined these two bills constitute the near entirety of Biden’s legislative agenda.
The matter will come to a head on Monday when the House comes back into session for the purpose of passing these bills. They are then scheduled to go back into recess until September 10, and they face a September 15 deadline for marking up the budget reconciliation bills in the various committees with jurisdiction. Pelosi has to find a solution this weekend.
For now, she’s solidly with the majority of her caucus and is insisting that the budget bill pass before she’ll bring the INVEST Act up for a vote, but currently she doesn’t have the votes to succeed with this approach.
The first test will be a vote on a rule scheduled for Monday night. The Hill reports that the rule will include the John Lewis voting rights bill, which is a way of adding pressure on the moderates.
During a private conference call Tuesday, House Majority LeaderSteny Hoyer (D-Md.) strongly urged rank-and-file Democrats to vote on a rule Monday night that would allow Democrats to move forward on their $3.5 trillion budget resolution, the $1.2 trillion Senate-passed infrastructure package and a voting rights bill named for the late Rep. John Lewis (D-Ga.).
However, the vote on the combined rule is only a procedural vote to greenlight the House floor process for considering those bills. While the House is expected to subsequently vote on adoption of the budget and passage of the voting rights bill, it could be months before the House votes on passage of the bipartisan infrastructure bill.
Yet, Roll Call is reporting that at least two of the moderates (and possibly more) are still firmly intent on blocking the rule unless a vote is scheduled for the INVEST Act.
Given the stakes and Pelosi’s track record of success, it’s hard to believe that she could fail here, but it’s going to require pulling a rabbit out of a hat. For now, it looks like she’s just playing chicken, hoping that the moderates will swerve first to avoid a head-on collision that destroys the Biden presidency and possibly the world.
I really think the “empty calorie” description is excellent and right on point. The republicans really haven’t had anything constructive to say in years. I stopped engaging folks on the right because debating fact-less screeching is never going to be productive when dealing with these people directly. But if baffles me why Democratic politicians can’t run circles around these folks when trying to persuade those that are on the fence. Why do we suck at messaging?
From your lips to God’s ears, as the old saying goes.
If this is the strategy Republicans are going to adopt, all the more reason for Dems to enact as much of their agenda (esp. the reconciliation bill & whatever Joe Manchin will agree to on voting rights) as possible this fall. Doing so would provide the clearest contrast between the GOP’s fake populism and the Democrats’ “real deal”.
It’s a misnomer to call these people moderates. What they are doing is extreme.
Yes. Martin, please quit calling them moderates. Their is nothing whatsoever moderated about them. “Opportunists” or “Nihilists” would be better.
Just to be clear, i didn’t mean that as a dig against Martin. That’s just the accepted nomenclature.
There was an ad by No Labels last night on MSNBC in northern Colorado praising the nine, each by name, for fighting to get the bi-partisan infrastructure bill passed.
I can’t see a single defensible (and Dems are supposed to still stand for logic and reason) rationale for forcing this impasse unless the representatives involved are planning not to support the reconciliation bill. A little extra pork? That wouldn’t require all this, including cable TV ad campaigns praising the 9 reps, that could be taken care of in private discussions with infinitely more dignity. No, it looks like they’re planning to tank the deal, possibly smearing the squad on the way down.
Well, in competitive districts, there is some value in appearing to be a moderating influence on your party. That’s about it as far as strategy goes here.