It’s not an exaggeration to say that Biden’s presidency depends on the outcome of a dispute among Democrats in the House of Representatives. If he doesn’t prevail on a clique of moderate Democrats to support his legislative plan for both infrastructure and budget reconciliation, his first and most critical year in office will collapse into complete failure and there will be little hope of resurrecting his administration or holding onto power in Congress. Considering how dangerous the current iteration of the Republican Party is, it’s not too much to say that the fate of the world will turn on the outcome.

According to reporting from Roll Call, there are nine Democrats (and probably more who are keeping quiet) who are not willing to pass the budget reconciliation bill unless they are first allowed to vote on the bipartisan INVEST in America Act infrastructure bill that the Senate passed 69-30 on August 10th.

However, there’s a much larger contingent of Democrats who will not vote for the INVEST Act unless the budget plan is agreed to first. The math is problematic because the Democratic majority is so thin that Speaker Pelosi can afford to lose no more than three votes. If she can’t find a way to make the moderates blink, neither bill will pass and combined these two bills constitute the near entirety of Biden’s legislative agenda.

The matter will come to a head on Monday when the House comes back into session for the purpose of passing these bills. They are then scheduled to go back into recess until September 10, and they face a September 15 deadline for marking up the budget reconciliation bills in the various committees with jurisdiction. Pelosi has to find a solution this weekend.

For now, she’s solidly with the majority of her caucus and is insisting that the budget bill pass before she’ll bring the INVEST Act up for a vote, but currently she doesn’t have the votes to succeed with this approach.

The first test will be a vote on a rule scheduled for Monday night.  The Hill reports that the rule will include the John Lewis voting rights bill, which is a way of adding pressure on the moderates.

During a private conference call Tuesday, House Majority LeaderSteny Hoyer (D-Md.) strongly urged rank-and-file Democrats to vote on a rule Monday night that would allow Democrats to move forward on their $3.5 trillion budget resolution, the $1.2 trillion Senate-passed infrastructure package and a voting rights bill named for the late Rep. John Lewis (D-Ga.).

However, the vote on the combined rule is only a procedural vote to greenlight the House floor process for considering those bills. While the House is expected to subsequently vote on adoption of the budget and passage of the voting rights bill, it could be months before the House votes on passage of the bipartisan infrastructure bill.

Yet, Roll Call is reporting that at least two of the moderates (and possibly more) are still firmly intent on blocking the rule unless a vote is scheduled for the INVEST Act.

Given the stakes and Pelosi’s track record of success, it’s hard to believe that she could fail here, but it’s going to require pulling a rabbit out of a hat. For now, it looks like she’s just playing chicken, hoping that the moderates will swerve first to avoid a head-on collision that destroys the Biden presidency and possibly the world.