It’s encouraging that we’re still seeing people flee the Republican Party in search of sanity. I’d be extra concerned if we weren’t seeing this. But the truth is that we’re in very deep trouble. Support for President Biden is collapsing, especially among independents who blame him for inflation. It’s true that Trump suffered from persistently and historically bad approval numbers throughout his presidency, but remember that he lost reelection. And his floor of support rarely was as low as Biden’s is right now.
A new poll from Grinnell College and Selzer and Company shows President Joe Biden’s approval rating is falling.
According to the poll, only 37% of Americans approve of the job the president is doing, while 50% disapprove.
The poll shows President Biden’s support among Independent voters since the 2020 election has collapsed, and he would be tied with former President Trump if the 2024 election were held today.
“In 2020 exit polling, President Biden won independent voters by a 54% to 41% margin,” said J. Ann Selzer of Selzer & Company. “If the election were held today, our poll shows former President Trump winning that group 45% to 28%. It is a massive shift in a demographic that helped carry Biden to victory less than two years ago.”
I wish I had an adequate explanation for how this is possible, but one thing I’m certain about is that the American people are in a deep funk. On the left, there’s widespread faith that this will resolve itself if Biden’s agenda is passed through Congress. To be sure, having some legislative success will help. Depending on what’s included and excluded from the final package, there could be an additional boost from crafting good policies that benefit the people. Anything is better than a display of impotence and incompetence.
Some on the left are arguing that the legislation needs to be enacted in full, largely as promised by Biden on the campaign trail, and that watered down half measures won’t right the ship. Others are saying that voting rights need to be protected or the Republicans will essentially cheat their way back into power. These are defensible arguments. But I keep coming back to the seeming insanity of public opinion.
I’m familiar with the common explanations: widespread disinformation campaigns, dishonest and all-prevalent right-wing media, social media algorithms, foreign interference, the stress of the pandemic, predatory monopolies and the loss of entrepreneurial opportunity, the backlash against changing demographics and “woke” culture. The biggest factor of all is probably simply the malign influence of Donald Trump who undermines faith in our institutions on a constant basis.
I don’t think things can begin to return to normal until Trump is out of the picture. I’ve given up on Republican leaders having any constructive role in helping the country move past Trump. Any faith I have is vested in district attorneys, the Justice Department, and the courts.
I know that in some ways Trump is only a symptom, made possible by other factors. But he became the primary problem, one that has to be addressed before we can solve the underlying issues.
The Democrats need to pass as much of Biden’s agenda as they can, both because he needs a win and because many of his policies should help address the underlying issues. But this is unlikely to be enough by itself because the rot and sickness in our political culture is too far advanced. As things stand, it almost doesn’t matter what the Democrats do–they’re on track to lose power to an anti-Democratic death cult.
I can’t say precisely why Americans have gone insane or which remedies have the most promise, but I know Trump has to be dealt with or things will just get worse.
Empires rise and crest and fall. After the fact, historians create stories to try to explain what happened but at the end of the day they’re just ideas. The arc of history remains unfathomable. We appear to be living through one of history’s conflation points, with two cultures emerging from one, going to war with one another and then probably creating something new. Really hard to predict how something like this goes. I’d not be surprised if we went through a time of authoritarian rule. I hope it doesn’t happen but it’s getting harder to see how we avoid it. If it does happen, I don’t think it will last but it troubles me that 50 years is but the blink of an eye in historical terms. In other words, democracy may not reemerge in our lifetimes and that makes me sad.
The biggest problem? What’s the plan for the debt ceiling or voting rights? Leave it to Chucky and Mitch to fix er I guess.
Good post, as usual, Martin. We progressives need to wrap our heads and hearts around the fact that we’re getting at best a $2 trillion reconciliation bill that won’t have several of things we want and will have some things we don’t want. We also are getting at best a limited voting rights bill, and that only if Manchin, Sinema & company will vote to override the filibuster. (The fact that Schumer held a floor vote today is a somewhat promising sign that this may be possible.)
As for Trump, it is beyond frustrating how slowly the prosecutors (DOJ, Fulton County DA, NYS AG, Manhattan DA, Westchester DA) are moving on Trump’s various criminal activities. The best way to remove Trump from the political scene (and to politically damage his allies) is to indict and convict him.
Trump does have to be dealt with, but that leaves the crazy base in charge of the republican party, lock stock and barrel