There are things that make me despair and sometimes it’s hard to avoid a debilitating sense of powerlessness. It’s true that it’s completely normal for the party out of power to have greater voter enthusiasm, but there’s nothing normal about today’s Republican Party. They should be repelling voters and losing support, but they’re actually converting Democrats at a steady clip, particularly in my home state of Pennsylvania.
Nowhere is the Republican advance in voter registration more evident than in Pennsylvania, where so far this year Republicans have converted four Democrats for every Republican who has switched to the Democratic Party, according to data published by Pennsylvania’s Department of State. That’s on track to be the highest conversion rate in at least a decade and well above 2016, when Republicans took the White House, House of Representatives and Senate.
“This is bad news for the Democrats,” said Kevan Yenerall, a political scientist at Clarion University in Clarion, Pennsylvania.
Democrats have a chance to win the Senate seat of Pat Toomey, who is retiring, and I am eager to see the leading Democratic candidate, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman represent me in Congress. He’s a fascinating politician and I think he’ll run a very interesting campaign that will attract some rabid followers, but it’s difficult to be optimistic about his chances in the general election when the state seems to moving a light speed to the far right. This also doesn’t bode well for the open gubernatorial race to replace Democrat Tom Wolf who is term-limited out.
This phenomenon isn’t limited to the Keystone State.
In North Carolina, where a tight Senate race is expected due to the retirement of Republican Senator Richard Burr, Republicans so far this year have picked up three Democratic converts for every voter that Democrats have poached, according to state election board data. Throughout 2021, the Republican advantage was about half that.
In Florida and Nevada, the numbers of registered Republicans rose in the first few months of the year while the ranks of Democrats declined modestly.
If you’re looking for a glimmer of hope, I suppose you can take heart in the fact that President Biden’s approval numbers have rebounded a few points from his 42 percent low-point in March.
Republicans lost the popular vote in last 7/8 national elections.
It’s the stupid electoral college, and the constitution that commits us to the cave ages!
But, with respect, the electoral college has nothing to do with the Senate election in Pennsylvania or the governor’s race in North Carolina. I don’t know *why* the Republican party is growing faster in PA than the Democratic party is but I do know that at some point you’ve got to engage with peopple who are different from you if you want to build political power in this country.
The thing about that though is the GOP make a point of NOT engaging with people different from them (except attacks), and it doesn’t seem to carry any costs.
Thanks for your response. I don’t know about where you are, but around here conservative political groups have invested heavily for years in building relationships with, for example, evangelical Hispanic pastors and their congregations (and radio stations, and revivals, and festivals, etc.).
And if 4 times as many PA Democrats as Republicans are switching parties, *somebody* is talking to those switchers.
P. S. I’m not saying that’s the whole solution (e.g., exposing and standing up to extremist bullies like Josh Hawley—as Sen. Brian Schatz did earlier this week—is part of the solution too), but it’s an important part. A well-financed and organized revival of the “50 state strategy” would be a good start.
Your point is well taken… I was thinking more from the perspective of the national election… but local politics in PA, GA, TX will make a difference in the national politics.
Republicans: Dems are traitors and pedophiles who hate you and want to steal your children!
Dems: Here’s some bills that would help you if we could pass them, which we can’t.
Don’t despair too quickly:
As of Jan. 24, there were 4,014,563 registered Democratic voters in Pennsylvania and 3,423,455 registered Republican voters.