West or East: Uneasy is the Head That Wears the Crown

I’m worried that Vladimir Putin is not wrong.

President Vladimir V. Putin described Western unity in support of Ukraine as nothing but evidence of Europe’s status as America’s “poodle.” European leaders pushing sanctions against Russia, he predicted, would suffer economic backlash at home while failing to influence what happens in Moscow. “They always miscalculate, not understanding that in difficult conditions, the Russian people always unite,” Mr. Putin said.

It certainly looks to me like, while Western governments are admirably united in standing up to Russia, their electorates are staggering under inflation, pandemic fatigue, and a general malaise, and woe to any leader or party in power that is on the ballot this year.

Most immediately, there’s the April 24 run-off in the French presidential election between incumbent Emmanuel Macron and far-right Putin-friendly Marine Le Pen. That’s a potential disaster of epic proportions.

Then there’s the likely Republican takeover of both houses of Congress, possibly in an epic bloodbath in November. The Biden administration is trying to combat high energy prices, but overall inflation is killing them, and they’re completely reliant on Sen. Joe Manchin for any legislative success they might achieve this year. As Jennifer Rubin notes, that’s just not a great bet.

Putin is betting that Western leaders will soon face electoral defeat or at least shift their focus to political survival. And it could definitely happen. He’d obviously like to survive long enough to see Biden defeated in 2024, preferably by Donald Trump. That seems a little far-fetched but if Trump isn’t incarcerated or somehow disqualified, it’s not out of the question. The damage could be nearly as bad or even worse if somehow like Josh Hawley, Ted Cruz or Ron DeSantis become president.

So, Putin will try to bide his time, but he’s under enough pressure that he’s already purging the FSB in Stalinist style. Uneasy is the head that wears the crown. In this case, it’s really a race to see which side collapses first.