It’s possible that due to his age or unpopularity that Joe Biden will not seek a second term in 2024, and Bernie Sanders wants everyone to know that he hasn’t ruled out a third presidential campaign if there is no incumbent. This, of course, immediately called to mind the nascent 1960 presidential candidacy of Adlai Stevenson, who had been trounced by Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1952 and 1956.
I found a thesis someone wrote in 1969, the year I was born, about Stevenson’s 1960 adventures. There are a few things that are striking about it.
First, Stevenson had explicitly and repeatedly stated and promised that he would not seek the nomination in 1960, and he felt honor bound to keep that pledge. But he still wanted to be president, and much like Bernie Sanders, he still had the advantage of an army of veterans from his past campaigns who didn’t want the flame to die. For this reason, he encouraged a Draft Stevenson movement, although he kept his own involvement on the down low.
The Draft Stevenson movement was hoping for a brokered convention, and seeing John F. Kennedy as the biggest threat to win the nomination outright, they bankrolled Sen. Hubert H. Humphrey’s campaign. Initially, Stevenson was seen as a two-time failure whose time had lapsed, and Kennedy was pummeling Humphrey in the primaries. But when the Soviets shot down a U2 spy plane and caught the Eisenhower administration in a lie, Cold War tensions got very high and the importance of foreign policy experience came to the fore. This is when many members of the Democratic establishment began to get queasy about going with a young inexperienced Kennedy and began to consider Stevenson as a better man to top the ticket.
And that’s really the main difference between Stevenson and Sanders. Stevenson was a statesman and a fairly mainstream Democrat for the time, and in a time of crisis people naturally looked to him for leadership. Kennedy would eventually win the nomination and the presidency, and make Stevenson his ambassador to the United Nations. In that role, Stevenson would famously, and credibly (unlike Colin Powell), provide proof of Russian-made nuclear missiles in Cuba.
Sanders is a bit older than Biden, so that’s another obvious objection to the idea that he’d make a logical replacement. But no one should doubt that Sanders could put his army in the field again and win a bunch of delegates. The problem is that he isn’t the kind of statesman or trusted Establishment figure the party would look to in a crisis. I’m not sure Sanders knows this or particularly cares if he does. What’s clear is that he decided he wants his name out there. He is encouraging a Draft Bernie movement.
That means it will happen. His surrogates and supporters will organize and ready themselves for battle. And it could be that they’ll get so excited that they’ll push Sanders into the race even if Biden decides to run again.
Running for president has proved to be very lucrative to Bernie and his family. He doesn’t care about anything else.
Good analogy and analysis, thank-you.
It strikes me that there’s also an element of Ted Kennedy running against Jimmy Carter in 1980 in this story. In that case, Kennedy had devoted followers from the left wing of the party as well as an inchoate (most famously, in his televised interview with Roger Mudd) and emotionally complicated (and conflicted) desire to be president. And there was great disappointment within the Democratic party that Carter had not accomplished more while in office.
And Ted Kennedy was more acceptable as a presidential candidate, and as a politician to more of the Democratic party of 1980 than Bernie Sanders is to the Democratic party of today.
1) I think the prospect of Sanders running would be enough in itself to steel Biden’s resolve to seek a second term all on its own, assuming neither have significant health issues
2) I’m also pretty sure Sanders would resist a draft movement rather than risk a weakened Biden competing in the general
3) I don’t think there’s nearly as much enthusiasm out there for Sanders as there was a couple of years ago, and he probably missed his best shot by waiting too long to announce in 2016 (which incidentally I think was because he would have stayed out if Warren had run)…I’ve been living in Asia for the last 20 years so my perceptions may be unduly influenced by social media and other online spaces, but he seems to have lost a lot o support among the left for not aggressively pursuing dumb stuff like ‘force the vote’ maneuvers, and without a solid base there, he doesn’t have nearly enough centrist support to make a serious run, and
4) I don’t think he has any interest in merely running as a ‘protest’ or ‘issues’ candidate
I mean, he’s just too old. On a pure “is he electable and can he win” moment, he just can’t win the primaries. He’ll never be able to win it outright. But if he was the nominee, he’s a very electable candidate and has high (relatively) favorables. He’s definitely more electable than Kamala, but we all know that if Biden doesn’t run that she would be the likeliest nominee. She’d lose to trump tho, imo.
You think Harris would win? Everything I see suggests that aside from a small, rabid base, nobody particularly likes her. As veep she’s been a media non-entity, and beyond that she was just about the least popular candidate in the 2020 primaries. Now if she runs and loses in the 2024 primaries I have no doubt there will be a great outcry from the HRC crowd about racism and sexism that might cause some damage, but I see little or no enthusiasm for her broadly.
The problem is that while you’re right she only has a rabid fanbase who aren’t dealing with reality, she’s the VP. VP is always going to have the largest advantage than anyone, including an already formed “movement” and multiple run candidate like Sanders. Plus, she’s the first black VP. The primary electorate isn’t just going to be like “well she can’t win against trump and we’re not exactly excited about her”. It’s just not sustainable as an argument even if it’s true in the face of who is voting in Dem primaries.
OTOH, is the fear of a loss (especially to Trump) combined with what everyone sees as a very weak candidate enough to persuade people that she’s gotta be dumped? Idk, I say no. It is what it is.