Concerned that the national mood is shifting against the Democrats just in time for the critical midterm elections, President Biden made an appearance on Tuesday at the Howard Theatre in Washington, DC, and promised to protect reproductive rights. He committed to make his first priority next year signing a national law protecting legal access to abortion, but only if the Democrats in Congress have the power to pass the legislation. That won’t happen unless they keep their majority in the House and add a seat or two in the Senate. The latter scenario still seems possible, but the House is beginning to look like a lost cause.

Polling indicates people are worried about abortion access and also threats to democracy, but that they’re still preferring the Republicans because of the economy. The president theoretically has the power to put the focus back on more favorable turf in a way that individual candidates cannot, so it was a smart political move for the administration to make this effort.

The mood of the electorate is sour and unpredictable. Consider that the GOP has a chance to win the governor’s race in New York and the Democrats are almost starting to look modestly favored to win the governor’s race in Oklahoma. Both outcomes would still be surprising upsets, but that they’re even possibilities is telling.

There’s record turnout in Georgia’s first day of early voting which could be good news for the Democrats if it means they’re matching the energy level of the Republicans, but no one really knows, including the pollsters. Usually, the president’s party fares poorly in midterms because the opposition is more motivated, but it’s hard to know if that advantage will actually manifest this year.

In past midterms cycles, I’ve often made detailed predictions, and some years I’ve been very accurate, particularly in 2006 when I was off in the House by a single seat. In 2010, I was far too optimistic. This time around, I’m not even going to try. I honestly have no idea anymore. I’m just hoping, and I hope you’re not just sitting on your ass reading blogs but finding time to also pitch in locally and help. Things can really take a dark turn here very shortly, and I don’t even want to fully consider what could go wrong if its a bad election night.