Hey folks, I hope you had a great Thanksgiving Day. I’ve been arguing for a while that it’s not out of the question that Donald Trump’s support could collapse costing him the Republican nomination for president. And, I’ve argued that despite everything that has gone wrong with Ron DeSantis’s campaign, he’s still the most likely alternative to Trump. I still feel that way, but with less confidence. It’s beginning to look like Nikki Haley might emerge as the second option.

Now, to be honest, I don’t think it matters tremendously what the big donors think or want. The New York Times has found evidence that Haley is picking up momentum with the monied crowd, but that doesn’t really move votes. What it does is give Haley the freedom to run an actual campaign with a full staff and travel schedule, plus a budget for advertising and organizing. Without that ability, candidates cannot maximize their chances or easily capitalize if they start to get some juice.

At the moment, it looks like Haley’s best bet is to finish second in Iowa and use that to challenge for a win in New Hampshire where independents can vote. That would give her an argument when the campaign turns to her home state of South Carolina. As with DeSantis, she’ll need Trump’s legal problems to mount in a way that really causes Republican voters to question Trump’s electability. As things stand, President Biden’s low approval numbers and poor performance in head-to-head polls against Trump are giving right-leaning voters little reason to fear nominating Trump. He actually looks like the most electable option.

Haley is doing a good job of being the first choice of non-Trumpers, but I still think DeSantis is better positioned to be the first choice of Trumpers who feel like Trump is no longer a real option. Unfortunately for Haley, I don’t think she can win unless Trump becomes non-viable, so I still give DeSantis better odds.

But the fact that money is leaving DeSantis and going to Haley is perhaps an indication that her chances have improved. If nothing else, this threatens DeSantis’s ability to maintain a serious campaign, and it could all wither on the vine leaving Haley as the sole savior still available.