I hadn’t realized that Chris Christie is polling in third place in New Hampshire, ahead of Ron DeSanits, until after I saw Politico call it a crushing blow to his campaign that Gov. Chris Sununu has endorsed rival Nikki Haley. That article is actually what made me check, because I thought it was a bit overblown to consider Sununu’s endorsement as some kind of difference-maker in the contest, at least as far as Christie is concerned.
To be clear, Christie is getting 13 percent in the FiveThirtyEight average of polls, behind Haley at 19 percent and Trump at 44 percent, but ahead of DeSantis at 10 percent and Ramaswamy at 8 percent. But it’s notable that Christie actually has a pulse in New Hampshire because that’s not the case nationally (2.8 percent) or in Iowa (3.6 percent) and South Carolina (2.7 percent).
I suppose it’s true that Christie has a fighting chance for a second place finish in the Granite State and the endorsement of the governor would have been helpful. I don’t know what a second place finish would really get Christie considering his weaknesses elsewhere, but at least he wouldn’t be forced out of the race. If DeSantis can’t do better than a weak fourth place there, he might drop out.
I think it’s clear that Sununu, who is reportedly good friends with Christie and similarly opposed to Trump, thinks Christie should leave the race so Haley can vacuum up his support. Yet, both Sununu and Haley have pledged to support Trump if he is the nominee, which makes them pretty unsatisfying from an anti-Trumpers’ point of view. And independents can participate in the Republican primary in New Hampshire. In fact, it’s pretty easy for Democrats to re-register and participate too, if they want to make trouble.
That’s more likely this cycle because Biden won’t even be on the ballot in New Hampshire and the state has been stripped of its delegates to the Democratic National Convention. This is a result of Biden moving the contest back on the calendar behind South Carolina and New Hampshire defiantly refusing to comply. You might remember that something similar happened in 2008 in Michigan, which became a bone of contention between the Clinton and Obama camps.
In any case, Democrats who want to have a say will have to vote in the Republican primary, and perhaps they can boost the anti-Trump vote. As of today, it doesn’t look like this could deny Trump a victory, but there’s still time for Trump to weaken and Haley to strengthen. It would certainly help if Christie and Haley are not competing for the same types of voters.
But I never thought Christie was in the race to win. He’s in the race to make a stand against Trump, and Haley is too squishy to do that job competently. I don’t think Christie can make himself a viable candidate no matter what happens in New Hampshire, so he probably should start talking to Haley about it will take to get his endorsement. If she can win New Hampshire and knock DeSantis out in the process, she could be in a good position to capitalize as Trump’s legal problems mount.
It’s largely out of our control but is a more palatable GOP candidate for President any less a threat to this country? I mean soft authoritarianism vs the real deal?
One potential upside is how Trump losing his own primary race might be perceived abroad. It would demonstrate to our allies that the US voting populace may be coming to its senses, and that we can be counted on not to make another super-stupid choice in leadership for the foreseeable. That would be a good message to send our adversaries too.
Different situation when it comes to actually electing another republican to the office. I highly doubt Haley’s strength of conviction to buck the crazies in her party when she’s put under pressure. And Christie would still be Christie.
Of course Christie has no realistic pathway to the presidency, but I hope he can stick it out through the primaries for at least a few more months. There’s been some interesting movement in the reaction he’s getting from the debate audiences, lots more applause when he attacks Trump and less booing. It almost makes you think his anti-Trump message is slowly starting to take hold, but even if so it’s going to take more time, and clearly Haley isn’t about to touch the issue in any meaningful way.
I guess I’ve never really thought Christie’s candidacy was about winning the nomination. I’ve thought of it more like the “rabbit” in a distance race, someone who tries to set the pace and help shape who wins (or loses), but doesn’t actually finish the race himself.
I think we all should be prepared for Trump to have the nomination effectively secured within the next 12 weeks.
Iowa is Jan. 15; NH is Jan. 23; SC is Feb. 3; Nevada is Feb. 8. Then 27 states will have their delegates selected by the end of the day on March 5. I’m assuming Republicans have kept their preference for winner-take-all primaries…which means Trump only needs to hold 40% or so of the vote to win all the delegates. Right now he’s polling around 60%.