The latest Monmouth University poll has very bad news for President Biden, but then that’s also true for every elected official they tested, none more so than Mitch McConnell.
The U.S. Senate’s Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell earns the lowest overall rating (6% approve and 60% disapprove among American adults), and is the only leader to receive a net negative score from his fellow partisans (10% approve and 41% disapprove among Republicans
Now, McConnell’s health has been a major concern. In March, he had a bad fall at a Waldorf Astoria hotel fundraiser in Washington, DC. He suffered a concussion and a rib fracture and spent a couple days in the hospital. Then he had two episodes where he just froze up while talking to the press, leading to concerns about his cognitive functioning. But I don’t believe his health is a major factor in his low polling numbers.
Democrats hate him for a whole plethora of reasons, and Republicans hate him because he’s in Donald Trump’s doghouse. That leaves independents, and they probably see him much like the rest of the congressional leadership as presiding over a wholly dysfunctional system.
The 81 year-old Kentucky senator isn’t up for reelection until 2026, and there’s very little chance he will seek another six-year term. But I wonder how much longer he can last as the leader of the Senate Republicans. He survived a highly disappointing 2022 midterm cycle, beating out Sen. Rick Scott of Florida 37-10 to remain the Minority Leader. If Trump wins the presidency in 2024, the Republicans will certainly also regain control of the Senate, and I doubt McConnell would win a battle to become Majority Leader in that circumstance, as Trump would certainly oppose him.
His chances might be better if Biden is reelected, mainly because that would mark the end of Trump’s political career and the beginning of the end of his hold over the GOP. But the Republican senators would still be looking at McConnell’s astonishingly low approval numbers, especially with their own base of supporters. They’d still be concerned about McConnell’s health and cognitive abilities.
I suspect that McConnell will not wind up serving out the rest of his term, even though as recently as September he pledged otherwise: “I’m going to finish my term as leader and I’m going to finish my Senate term.”
He’s been a tremendously effective leader for the Republicans, especially in remaking the federal judiciary and winning a conservative majority on the Supreme Court, but he gets little credit for it. His biggest mistake was not to make every effort to kill off Trump’s political career by supporting his conviction in the second impeachment trial. Everyone knows he wanted to see Trump convicted, but he flinched when Republican voters made clear that they wanted Trump acquitted. It was an error for his own political career, power, influence and legacy, but it was a catastrophic error for the country.
It remains to be seen if we can survive it.
It is often the case that the price of power is unpopularity. Or maybe that’s peculiar to our day and age. But that hardly matters. McConnel has some big accomplishments – these are accomplishments that I despise, but I’m not going to take that away from him. McConnel can go to his grave with the knowledge that he made a difference for things he cares about. I really hate that, but there it is.
But what does this tell us about Biden? Anything? Is there a path to success and reelection despite the realities that 2/3 of the country will hate you on the other end?