At Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, they’ve moved North Carolina from a lean-Trump state to a toss-up. And then they bring up something I’ve been wondering about: “Kamala Harris is actually polling slightly better in North Carolina than Georgia, but there are reasons to think she’ll still perform a little better in the latter.” The primary factors leading them to say that are Georgia’s larger black population and slightly more populous metro areas, which makes perfect sense.
But there are two other factors to consider. People are understandably focused on the most recent election in which Joe Biden narrowly beat Donald Trump in Georgia and narrowly lost to him in North Carolina. But 2008 was flipped. In that election, Barack Obama lost Georgia rather badly, 52 percent to 47 percent. But he won North Carolina 49.7 percent to 49.4 percent. So, 16 years ago we saw a black candidate do exactly what the polls are indicating now, which is do better in the Tarheel than the Peach State.
The second factor is education. The U.S. News & World Report ranks North Carolina 18th in educational attainment, meaning the share of a state’s population with a college degree. Georgia ranks thirtieth.
So, if you’re twisting the demographic gears, a lot depends on how big the margins are for the Democrat with people who have college degrees. The relative racial makeup of these states is unlikely to fluctuate or move much in at all, even if they both have growing minority populations. Likewise, given two attractive and charismatic black candidates, the margins and enthusiasm of the black vote isn’t likely to differ too much. But the support of people (particularly white people) with college degrees can shift quite a bit. This probably explains why Obama won North Carolina in 2008 and lost it in 2012.
So, my theory is that if the polls are correct, the reason Harris is polling better in North Carolina than in Georgia is because North Carolina has more college educated white persuadables than Georgia does, and Harris is doing very well with this group.
Something similar may be afoot in Nevada and Arizona. Polling suggests that Harris is doing worse in Nevada than in Arizona, which is a break with all precedent. But Nevada ranks 46th in educational attainment, ahead of only Mississippi, Louisiana, West Virginia and Arkansas. Meanwhile, Arizona ranks thirty-second.
In February 2016, when Trump won the Republican Party’s proportional caucus in Nevada, he famously said, “We won with poorly educated. I love the poorly educated.” I don’t think anything has really changed in that respect. Racial demographics are important for predicting outcomes, but so is educational attainment.
I had been wondering more about Nevada than Georgia or North Carolina. I’ve been assuming that the most likely outcome is that Nevada actually goes blue and NC (and Georgia) actually goes red, despite the polling. But this sheds some light on what we’re seeing so I appreciate this analysis.
Aside from numbers reflecting college degrees, which is important, a vital issue is the quality of public education in the various states. It does not take a college degree to think objectively and make good decisions. However, it does take a good basic education, which appears to be unavailable in too many states, especially in the South. A great improvement in public education in a number of states could make a big difference for the state of our democracy. Which is why, of course, it has little chance of happening.