There’s a lot to sift through in all the polling that is coming out post-presidential debate, but one thing seems pretty clear. If America’s presidential elections were decided the way all our other elections are decided, by popular vote, Kamala Harris would be a strong favorite to win. In the latest ABC News/Ipsos poll, for example, Harris leads Trump among likely voters 52 percent to 46 percent.
But in a sign that nothing is simple, that number is unchanged from the ABC News/Ipsos poll that preceded the debate. The difference is mainly that the pre-debate poll was an outlier while the post-debate poll is more in line with what other surveying outfits are now finding. The latest Yahoo News/YouGov poll finds Harris up 49 percent to 45 percent among likely voters, while the two were tied in the pre-debate poll. Data for Progress has Harris leading 50 percent to 46 percent. Morning Consult has Harris up 50 to 45.
If I were a Trump supporter the thing in these numbers that would terrify me is Harris hitting 50 percent or above among likely voters. Consider that these polls still include a bunch of people who are still undecided. Trump could win virtually all of them and still lose the popular vote. Unfortunately, we don’t decide our presidential elections by popular vote, as Al Gore and Hillary Clinton can tell you. Thanks the Electoral College, the actual election we’re having is as tight as a tick and basically a pure toss-up at this point.
All the swing states seem to be polling within the margin of error. We’re seeing more movement elsewhere. In Alaska, where Trump won in 2020 by over ten points, Harris may be only five points down. A June Selzer and Co. poll of Iowa had Trump beating Biden by 18 points, but a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows Trump ahead only 47% to 43% among likely voters. In 2020, Trump won Iowa by nine points.
These shifts will do Harris little good under the Electoral College system. If you want to put the happiest face on it, I think this tightening of the race in non-competitive states could be a sign of real momentum for Harris. If Trump suffers more slippage over the next month and a half, states like Iowa and Alaska could move into the toss-up category, and the same is probably true of Florida and Texas. But, for now, Trump doesn’t much care if he’s losing margin in the popular vote so long as he’s hanging tough in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, where the race is basically tied, and where the outcome of the election will be decided.
One thing I sussed out of a deep dive into the ABC News/Ipsos poll, is that as badly as Trump is getting pummeled in the media and in online memes for his Haitians-eating-pets story, he’d much prefer us to be talking about it than about women’s reproductive rights. If we’re focused on immigration, he’s winning. If we’re focused on abortion rights, he’s getting crushed. So, he’s probably happy to take the slings and arrows over his racism. His racism is popular and it’s what is keeping him competitive in the race.
It feels like a tragic inevitability that somewhere in the US, a Haitian is going to get killed this week because of the slander that Trump and Vance are slinging. If that happens, that has to be a breaking point, right? It has to be Charlottesville on steroids, right? Even if it’s just a bunch of Chamber of Commerce Republicans sitting this election out, that has to be the result?
Please? Please tell me that getting people killed will be the end of Trump?
No, it won’t change any minds that have already been made over the last 8 years.
I think you are basically correct, but I have to think that the people of Springfield must understand that they’re getting a taste of the chaos to come. Do they like this taste in their mouth?
In 2020 Clark County, in which Springfield resides, went for Trump 60.6% to 37.4% for Biden. Not sure, in the big scheme of things, that the needle will move too much.
True. But for Harris to win, they don’t need to change much. In fact they don’t need to change at all. If the popular vote in November is the same as it was four years ago, Harris wins. And if the vote in Clark County (and similar counties across the country) changes to something like 58-40, or 55-43, then Harris probably approaches 350 electoral votes.
Your final paragraph is correct. The dogs and cats thing has taken the spotlight off of his disparaging of the military at Arlington and on other occasions. This is a magic trick. Look here, not there.
How is it possible that Harris gains ground in Iowa (useless) but not in Wisconsin (not useless)? Is that a thing that is really happening or is the polling just incomplete?
Great question. (And I don’t know the answer.)
A couple of general thoughts about polls for those of us who aren’t pollsters or candidates:
1) Individual polls are basically worthless. That’s why Martin’s observation that the significance of the latest ABC/Ipsos poll isn’t its numbers (which are unchanged) but that it’s now in line with several other reputable polls in showing Harris with a small but clear lead nationally.
2) Borrowing from Simon Rosenberg (and, presumably, others) who’ve started making this point recently, expect to see a growing stream of right-wing polls showing Trump close or in the lead in the coming weeks. The reason Republicans will pay for those polls is that they’ll be included by most/all poll aggregators to encourage GOP voters and discourage Democratic voters. Additionally, those polls are an essential part of the groundwork Trump’s campaign is laying down to (if he loses) claim the election was rigged, and attempt (as in 2020) to overthrow the election.
Although this approach may ultimately prove successful, it is clearly is not the original (or desirable) course of events for the Republican ticket. As recently as July, the play was to run the campaign from the Seniors tees in match play against Biden and keep Trump somewhat low key to avoid reminding voters of how much chaos the man brought as President. Well, we are way past that and now we are being reminded of exactly what it was like when he was in charge. Just replace riots and covid, with this targeting of Haitians and assassination attempts (not necessarily Trumps fault, but chaos is chaos).