In 380 CE, Emperor Theodosius I made Christianity the official religion of the Roman Empire. One study found that “75 percent of the 69 men who ruled the Roman Empire from 63 BCE to 395 CE died from violent deaths,” including assassinations and forced suicide. This wasn’t really much of an aberration in the ancient world. Look into the rulers of almost any ancient dynasty, like the Parthians or the Seleucids, for example, and you’ll see that as often as not regime change was achieved through violent overthrow. Sometimes this occurred on the battlefield, but it frequently took place within the palace walls.
The Establishment of an official religion, in the West at least, seems to have calmed this tendency, presumably because of an arrangement between the crown and the religious authorities in which kings ruled by divine right. Kings and princes still fought and deposed each other, but internal revolutions became much less frequent. Monarchial legitimacy created a lot of stability for many centuries, in large part because the rules of the game were understood.
We don’t have that kind of legitimacy anymore. Political legitimacy today is derived from the consent of the people, and that consent is based on a different set of rules. We call it the Rule of Law. Where the Rule of Law is lacking in the modern world, we still see political assassinations and military coups, just as the ancient world routinely experienced.
What we’re seeing in America right now is a breakdown in the Rule of Law. Criminals are pardoned and the innocent are imprisoned, sometimes in foreign lands. The fascist regime completely disregards the Constitution, as well as many well-established norms people and businesses rely upon to go about their normal lives and operations.
I don’t think the leaders of this regime know their history or the peril they’re putting themselves in. Perhaps they fear an uprising of the people. Perhaps they even welcome violent protest, as they plan to use it as a pretext to seize even more power. But the real threat may come much closer to home. Perhaps a Secret Service agent will decide he’s seen enough and take matters into his or her hands. Perhaps a group of military officers will revolt and take control of the District of Columbia. Maybe a plot will be formed around someone in the line of succession.
One thing that helped preserve Adolf Hitler in power is he succeeded in compelling military officers to take a personal oath of allegiance to him, rather than the state or a constitution. Back then, people took oaths a lot more seriously than they do today, but in America the oath to protect and preserve the Constitution still has a lot of power, and no one has taken an oath to Donald Trump.
I’ve said all along that things will not get better on their own. Things will degenerate every day the regime is in power. It’s a pipe dream to think the regime will allow the midterm elections to proceed in a normal way. It’s a pipe dream to think they will not set the military on the American people and usurp the power of governors to administrate. It’s already happening. Illegal orders are already being issued to our military officers, and this is just the beginning. Court orders are already being ignored.
Who knows what lays in store for Canada, Greenland, Gaza and Panama? How much more insanity will the business community tolerate? How many more insults will the intelligence community shrug off?
I’d like to think that this country will self-correct through lawful means, meaning the electoral process, but that requires that certain things don’t completely break, including many powerful people’s breaking points.
We just saw how quickly Elon Musk went from the president’s best friend to calling for his impeachment. Even close allies of Trump can lose patience or lash out in self-defense when he turns on them.
What I see happening here is the destruction of all modern forms of political legitimacy. It started with conservative attacks on nearly all revered U.S. institutions and authorities which resulted in loss of public faith. But it isn’t going to stop there. Ironically, when Trump refused to peacefully turn power over to Joe Biden, he attacked and undermined the last real pillar of stability we had left.
Next came the Supreme Court declaring that the Office of the Presidency is almost entirely above the law. I honestly can’t see anything remaining that can guarantee the Rule of Law, free and fair elections, constitutional rule, or the peaceful transference of power. What we’re relying on instead is restrained leadership, and we do not have that anymore.
Between now and the next chance the American people will have to change things through elections, many powerful people will be asked to commit illegal acts, and many more will see their livelihoods or status ruined through capricious, vindictive and just plain stupid official acts. And if we somehow still make it through to election season, this regime will seek to turn the elections into a charade, including by violating states’ rights to administer the elections according to their own laws.
That may not turn out the way the regime leaders are hoping.
When I look back on it, I honestly don’t understand why anyone wanted to serve as a Roman emperor. I fear that soon people will say the same thing about being president of the United States.
