When I first started blogging back in 2005, one of my main areas of hope was in the prospects for taking back control of Congress from the Republicans. Throughout 2005 and 2006, I met with and interviewed Democrats running for the U.S. House of Representatives, and even two Senate candidates, including Mark Warner of Virginia. I made endorsements and helped raise money, as did many other progressive bloggers. I don’t know how much difference we made, but in the 2006 midterms, the Democrats took control of both the House and the Senate. And it had an immediate positive effect on how the country was being run. Two years later, the Democrats retook the White House and passed the Affordable Care Act. That was the high-water mark for our country in my lifetime. Things have not been going well since then At all.
Still, I’ve been able to fight off despair in political cycle after political cycle, with the hope of either retaining or reclaiming power in Congress. That’s still true in this cycle, but it feels different. This time, it doesn’t look like there will be a fair fight. The biggest problem is the Republicans’ intention to redraw the congressional districts in Texas and potentially several other states so that they can pick up seats without the help of the voters. Gerrymandering isn’t solely a Republican phenomenon, although the practice favors them because they have control of redistricting in my more states than the Democrats. The simplest way of understanding gerrymandering is that allows politicians to choose their constituents rather than letting constituents choose their representatives. What the Republicans are intending to do is take away the voters’ voice in an effort to avoid losing power despite being unpopular.
This has been a growing problem, especially as computer modeling has made it easier to maximize how many seats a party can squeeze out of a state’s allotment. But the drawing of districts is supposed to be done once every ten years following the constitutionally mandated national census. It is not supposed to be done mid-decade for the cynical and sole purpose of maintaining power for one party over another. I’ve always felt like the American electoral system is rigged to favor the right over the left, but this cycle looks to be extreme in this respect. It’s making it difficult to maintain any sense of optimism.
Usually, by this time in a political cycle, there have been a lot of announced retirements in Congress. This is often because it’s already clear to many members, especially in the House, that the tide is going against them and they’re likely to lose their seat if they seek reelection. Some will retire not because they expect to lose themselves but because they anticipate their party will lose the majority and they don’t want to serve in the minority. But, as Paul Kane of the Washington Post explains, with all this mid-term redistricting talk in the air, the process is kind of frozen.
We’re seeing fewer retirements because the picture is muddy. In a fair fight, the Republicans would almost certainly lose their majority in the House. But this isn’t going to be a fair fight, so GOP House members think they have a good chance of maintaining their decision making power in the next term. There are vulnerable members who might have decided to retire rather than fight an uphill battle, but who aren’t even sure what their district will look like since it could be redrawn.
Things won’t remain frozen. If the Republicans move forward with their redistricting plans, the Democrats will retaliate where they can. In both cases, there will be incumbents who are suddenly looking at hopeless prospects for reelection and will retire as a result. In some cases, incumbents who might have been doomed in their present districts will have new hope after they receive a more favorable constituency to represent. However it eventually shakes out, the end result will favor the Republicans. It could be the sole reason the Republicans retain control of the House.
There’s a lot the Trump administration is doing to take away hope from their political opponents. It’s part of their overall strategy. If they can demoralize the left, it will make everything easier for them. I don’t want to fall into that trap.
But it’s not easy. I wouldn’t agree to compete in a game or sport where I knew the rules were rigged against me. It’s tempting to say I won’t participate in a political system that is rigged against me. Unfortunately, giving up will only make things worse. I think it’s important that people understand this. I really believe there is some potential that voters will be angry about having their choices taken away and that this can drive down the Republicans’ support with the electorate. But it won’t happen if people throw up their hands in frustration and give up.
You can never defeat fascism by giving up.