Here’s a map of Pennsylvania Counties.
You can test how Obama is doing by looking at the poll estimates by region.
For Philly, look at Philadelphia County.
For the Philly suburbs, check Delaware, Chester, Montgomery, and Bucks.
For the Northeast, look at Lackawanna, Luzerne, Lehigh, and Northampton.
For Southcentral, check Berks, Lancaster, York, Dauphin, and Adams.
For Central, look at Centre County and some of the surrounding counties.
For Metro Pittsburgh, check Beaver, Butler, Westmoreland, Armstrong, and Washington.
For Pittsburgh, check Allegheny County.
For the Northwest, check Erie County.
Don’t even bother with West Central because there are almost no votes there.
On the incomplete PA Exit polls, Kos has an interesting comparison with Ohio to pass the time
Seniors, White male, college grads, Urban household, under $50,000 – Obama has improved in PA over Ohio numbers.
Nail biter then.
my server is under attack again.
yeah. mischief.
Yes it is.
Must be the Hillary Hackers.
Is it an active attack or is it just getting hit hard?
I notice that it’s been throwing internal server errors and blank pages, and in at least one case a duplicate of this diary.
I’ll be heading home in a few minutes.
I get hit all the time when people know I’ll be off the computer and more recently, whenever I post something hostile to Clinton.
Poll closing time seems apt. My traffic is not unusually high.
silly season will soon end.
Terry McAuliffe being interviewed HRC HQ, – BloombergTV, can’t tell you what he’s saying. He’s been muted.
Me thinks you need some new hamsters.
MSNBC: Too close to call. It’s gonna be a long night.
Too close to call, but not too close to hint
Polls closed. CNN, MSNBC, too close to call.
goooooooood.
One may assume, then, it’s not a Clinton blow-out.
First hurdle passed.
Russert says Clinton camp wanted early call – ain’t happening.
Clinton people, per Madam Skeletor Andrea Mitchell, know it’s much closer than they were hoping.
Clinton 0, Obama 0, with 0 precincts reporting.
Heh.
watching online Bloomberg BusinessTV real live coverage of the PA results. first primary results coverage live online.
“HRC going all the way even with her financial disadvantage.” tough road ahead.
Major Nets saying “too close to call”
Obama is in Indiana.
Philly
Obama 69%
Clinton 31%
Philly Suburbs
Obama 62%
Clinton 38%
Pittsburgh Area
Clinton 62%
Obama 38%
Everywhere Else
Clinton 58%
Obama 42%
What do y’all make of those?
A tie?
those Pittsburgh area numbers are troubling, but Obama did so well in the Philly burbs that it might not matter.
Yeah, I’m rather shocked he did better in Harrisburg and the T — the “Everywhere Else,” I guess — than in Pittsburgh.
overall good numbers for Obama.
Bowers says Close:
BlommbergTV: “Clinton-Osama race too close to call.”
They’ve apologised. “It’s spellcheck.” and have corrected. Geez
I believe Bloomberg on that. (Fox? No way. Bloomberg? Yes.) Its done it to me before.
If Philly was only 29%, we got problems. But, if it’s going to be adjusted a good bit upwards towards more like 35% or 40%, then O may just pull it out if, at 29%, it already yields just a 52-48% Clinton win.
that 29% figure is not right. Even Bowers stated so.
of course not. the exit polls are worthless for the final tally.
Where did you get those numbers?
MSNBC flashed’em up, and I was awesome enough to remember’em. 😉
I really am dying to see the numbers out of Berks and Lancaster counties. I think they will tell us the story. If Obama is winning there, it’s going to be a good night.
I think he must have done reasonably well in Lancaster. That’s one of the Philly exurb counties, isn’t it? If he grabbed over 60% of the ‘burbs, he must have done pretty well there. Or, if those are being counted in “Everywhere Else,” it might explain him getting into the 40s in a category that includes the SW and NE.
That’s Obama up 38% in Philadelphia, up 24% in the Philly ‘burbs.
Clinton up 24% in Pittsburgh and +16% everywhere else.
But it’s MSNBC.
Tough to say, because we don’t know how large a chunk of the vote each of these made up.
Yup.
Now it’s all about who got their people to the polls.
“Too Early to Call” according to MSNBC, which probably means they’re almost ready to call for Clinton.
Comparing the MSNBC percentages to the graph at the top of the diary it looks like Obama is doing better than predicted and Clinton is doing worse.
But then why too early to call?
I guess because they are waiting to see how the numbers come in versus their model.
Remember, Clinton is supposed to win this thing.
Could be. We’ll see if it moves back to too-close. Boo looks right about some white ethnic votes coming in from South Philly.
You can drive yourself crazy parsing News Speak:
“We were going to call it but we just sent out for some pizza so we’ll wait a while.”
:0
Nope, MSNBC just called it.
some results are in, from Luzerne (northeast) and Philly (must be a white ethnic district of Philly).
Hey there. We’re back. We’d have gotten home sooner, but we called ahead for take out and it took longer than expected. We also spent some time sorting mail and hanging up stuff before we settling in.
Well, OK. What’s done is now done. I hope he did well, but I tell you–again and again, I am impressed with Barack Obama’s ground game. It. Is. Awesome.
And he’s got the best, most pumped volunteers and organizers. We’ll need all of this organization and energy as Barack runs successfully for the White House!
Hey!!
CabinGirl just called. Her precinct in Chester Co.?
Obama 274 53%
Clinton 241 47%
Very Cool. In Chester County, too!
How do people watch Chris Matthews on a regular basis?
alcohol.
I require stronger drugs.
I play a game by counting the references he makes to old movies like Brigadoon, South Seas, The Lone Ranger, etc. Five minutes ago it was Titanic…
And you do a shot each time?
Yes, a shot of Orville Redenbacher light butter popcorn
It’s now too early to call, clinton lead.
my guess…she wins by 8.
That was my pick. 54-46%.
MSNBC is calling it for Hillary with 3% reporting.
53%-47%
How do you call a race with only 3%?
Marc Ambinder said
They’re merging the exit poll data with quick tallies from specially selected model precincts across the state. Clinton in those precincts is outperforming her margin in the exit polls
Now I want to know when people started relying on exit poll data again?
They create a statistical model and crank it around until it comes out ding.
Yep, they model based upon a few precincts, find one or the other outperforming, and — voila! — they call it.
MSNBC: It’s now too EARLY to call, with Clinton leading.
Someone on MSNBC, when he could get a word in edgewise with Tweety, said that Obama’s strategy in PA was to drain Clinton’s coffers, bankrupt her. Sounds like for that part worked. She’s almost out of money for North Carolina and Indiana.
Actually, she’s more than out of money. Starting the month, she was in the red, and I’d wager she’s even further in it now.
she’s been spending $1 million a day. but don’t worry, she’ll write herself another check from the $109 million pool.
why would anyone, any woman say she voted for Hillary because you’re getting two fer one?
Fox calls it for Hillary?
MSNBC, too.
I just had to switch to CNN because I can’t handle The Scar and The Harold Ford (both Republicans/DLC/Same Thing) “debate” how things are going in the Democratic race. WTF?
I keep switching back and forth for the same reason, as well as to avoid Bill Bennett on CNN….what a bloated hypocrite
I think Olbermann just called Hillary a pig in a poke.
I miss the days of Walter Cronkite.
In his defense he did say immediately that it was an unfortunate analogy…..:)
Now I think they were saying that women are poor sports because they approve of Hillary moving the goal posts.
bleh. I hate this network.
MSNBC calls it for Hillary. Then Brokaw basically ignores it and continues with his point.
my nerves…
With 3% in? Seems a bit early.
at less than 1% of the votes?
With 5% reporting, NPR just called it for Clinton.
Obama is closing the gap:
at 3% Clinton 56 Obama 44
at 5% Clinton 52 Obama 48
Let it be in low single digit.
Pittsburgh Area
Clinton 62%
Obama 38%
I know it’s early but
24 points ? That seems other worldly .
What Pittsburgh’s large Black and college educated population stayed home ? What Kerry/Heinz got no pull in Pittsburgh’s ? If 24 points holds up it’s very strange.
Philly seems to have been a disappointing low turnout. jUst hope she takes in in the single digit.
Lack of street money?
These numbers in Pgh better not be right. I’ll need to move.
Tonight:
Hillary declares “victory” and begs for cash. She don’t got none of that and can’t pay her vendors.
If she’s smart she will take that money, pay those bills and drop out of the race with a big win behind her.
But she won’t. She will keep campaigning well past the general election after we have already elected our new President Obama.
I really, really do…it’s utter foolishness to listen to Scarborough and Ford having a conversation like they’re GOP vs. Dem. arguing when they’re both vested in having Clinton elected.
I love that Joe said Obama has to do what Harold did in TN and Harold had to point out to Joe that he lost in TN.
That there is no disclosure that he is also the chairman of the DLC…he’s just “MSNBC political analyst”.