As I reported this morning in the PDB, the German press is abuzz with rumors that CIA chief Porter Goss has been seeking authorization from Turkey so that the U.S. can attack Iran later this year.
From Der Spiegel:
According to [German news agency] DDP, during his trip to Turkey, CIA chief Goss reportedly handed over three dossiers to Turkish security officials that purportedly contained evidence that Tehran is cooperating with Islamic terror network al-Qaida. A further dossier is said to contain information about the current status of Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons program. Sources in German security circles told the DDP reporter that Goss had ensured Ankara that the Turkish government would be informed of any possible air strikes against Iran a few hours before they happened. The Turkish government has also been given the “green light” to strike camps of the separatist Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in Iran on the day in question.
They also add this scary addendum:
The most talked about story is a Dec. 23 piece by the German news agency DDP from journalist and intelligence expert Udo Ulfkotte. The story has generated controversy not only because of its material, but also because of the reporter’s past. Critics allege that Ulfkotte in his previous reporting got too close to sources at Germany’s foreign intelligence agency, the BND. But Ulfkotte has himself noted that he has been under investigation by the government in the past (indeed, his home and offices have been searched multiple times) for allegations that he published state secrets — a charge that he claims would underscore rather than undermine the veracity of his work.
According to Ulfkotte’s report, “western security sources” claim that during CIA Director Porter Goss’ Dec. 12 visit to Ankara, he asked Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to provide support for a possibile 2006 air strike against Iranian nuclear and military facilities. More specifically, Goss is said to have asked Turkey to provide unfettered exchange of intelligence that could help with a mission.
Turkey would certainly love to hit at the Kurd bases in northwestern Iran. And it must be remembered that Goss’ visit to Turkey was unannounced and was only broken when a local news agency saw him meeting with Prime Minister Erdogan.
And Spiegel reminds us of last year‘s article by Seymour Hersh, which contained:
The Administration has been conducting secret reconnaissance missions inside Iran at least since last summer. Much of the focus is on the accumulation of intelligence and targeting information on Iranian nuclear, chemical, and missile sites, both declared and suspected. The goal is to identify and isolate three dozen, and perhaps more, such targets that could be destroyed by precision strikes and short-term commando raids. “The civilians in the Pentagon want to go into Iran and destroy as much of the military infrastructure as possible,” the government consultant with close ties to the Pentagon told me.
The Pentagon and White House attacked that article, making vague criticisms about its “inaccurate statements” but never denied the substance of what it said.
According to my own analysis, air strikes alone against Iran would make for ruinous foreign policy and probably even be ineffective in stopping its nuclear power program. But we all know that major foreign policy decisions are rarely made these days based on logic and common sense.
The German-language version of the Spiegel article can be found here. See also Weiner Zeitung and Frankfurt Allgemeine Zeitung for related reports.
The story is also hitting all the Turkish and Middle Eastern media, including Al-Jazeera. And whether or not it’s actually true, the story will be perceived as yet another example of American imperialism at work.
Antiwar.com’s coverage here.
And the leadership in Iran isn’t letting the reports slide either:
Iran warned on Sunday of a “crushing” response if its nuclear and military facilities were attacked by the U.S. or Israel.
Top nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani said, however, that talk of such an attack most likely was “psychological warfare.”
“Iran has prepared itself … they will get a crushing response if they make such a mistake,” Larijani said on state-run television late Sunday.
Larijani said Israel would “suffer greatly” if it launched an attack.
European media have indicated in recent days that the U.S. was preparing its allies for a strike against Iran’s nuclear and military facilities with the aim of curtailing Iran’s nuclear program.
Let’s hope it is all bluster and that Nobel Peace Price winner Mohammed Elbaradei and the IAEA can manage to keep the situation under control.
Peace
diplomacy to end conflicts. We must be the driving force behind changes in our foreign policy.
Why must we step in here and what are we promising Turkey? Are we promising to look the other way where the Kurds of Iraq are concerned in setting up their own state? What a huge mess from hell this all is anymore.
I forgot about their new “oil market” they are setting up. That answers every fricken thing right there!
I think it will be right before the 2006 elections. republicans really need a boost!
the bedrock American principle that self-defense, including defense against US or US-funded aggression, as well as the production and possession of weapons are privileges that can only be bestowed or withdrawn by the US, are not good.
While the idea is such an ingrained value for Americans that it is understood as a given, it is just not an idea that has caught on internationally, particularly by nations where key US business interests and covert operations have been active.
The Israelis are neck deep in Northern Iraq with the Kurds… understandable in some respects as they are the largest ethnic group in the world with no turf to call home.
It’s getting very complicated now – as there is little chance that Turkey will accept a homeland on their doorstep for a minority they consider a terrorist group – they have made that pretty clear.
I wonder what game Goss is up to and how is he playing them off against each other in the region? Israel is an ally of the US – but at the end of the day… Israel will do what’s best for Israel and not follow on the tails of another US nightmare in the ME.
and it seems unlikely that that will change. US will deploy its resources in the Levant in accordance with US business interests, and while as is usual in these cases, there will be a small number of Americans and Israelis who will benefit, it will fall to ordinary Americans and Israelis to show Resolve and make any necessary sacrifices gladly.
Well in my opinion Israel will do what’s best for Israel. Conspiracy label on me or not. Now I have to back up my analysis with the work of others… and that’s fine. Let’s start with Sy – then move to the Jerusalem Post.
Israel, US disagree on post-Assad Syria
declare its independence and liberate itself from its status as glorified US weapons depot.
But then I would also like to see the US cease aggression and disarm and liberate itself from its status as Somalia with money 🙂
The Israeli gov’t has always acted in its perceived self-interest, testing the limits of US support, which after the sinking of the USS Liberty & various spy programs in the US, are remarkably flexible.
I wouldn’t want to put words in Ductape’s keyboard, but his remark made sense to me in the same way it can be said the US doesn’t always act in the US’ interests — at least when looked at from the POV of its everyday citizens.
Just as an example, the crusades in Iraq and Afghanistan are definitely in the best interests of certain key US business interests, but neither the crusades nor the policies to eliminate the poor and infirm are in the interests of ordinary Americans.
Similarly, while there are those in Israel who receive a benefit from crimes against humanity and putting US business interests first, over a quarter of Israeli children go to bed hungry, and the safety and security of ordinary Israelis does not benefit.
that the notion that the United States is the entity they’re running is a conspiracy theory.
One thing is for sure. No one will come to the aid of the Kurds once the sphere of violence expands.
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No substance in any facts, just assumptions and listening devices in parrot circuits. The Al Jazeera article is worse than what they normally produce. There is no beginning, nor end to this story, IMHO a waste of time. I hate movie theaters, but that would be my preference than reading this end of year journalism.
See earlier comments and diaries over the Kurds and Kurdistan.
Global Security – KURDISTAN MAPS
Iran would rather cooperate to build a new gas pipeline and oppose any movement for Kurdish independence. This article is obviously written to sour relations between citizens of Turkey and Iran. Syria could also be mentioned in same campaign to embolden Israeli might and the U.S. Iraqi campaign.
“Treason doth never prosper: what’s the reason?
For if it prosper, none dare call it treason.”
▼ ▼ ▼ MY DIARY
We can’t afford to sit back & hope for the IAEA, the Russians, the Chinese, the UN, or anyone else to stop this madness. It’s up to us, folks, to speak out now, loud & clear. We’ve got to fight this battle with the congress we’ve got, not the one we hope for after the next election cycle.
Political fallout from an attack on Iran would be great & could easily spin out of control. Iraqi Shiites would support Iran. China, currently holding a great deal of our debt, has huge gas & oil contracts with Iran. So does Russia, who is already concerned by our military presence in central Asia. At a bare minimum, we should expect economic retaliation. Pakistan has said that they support Iran shouled there be a US/Israeli attack.
If it isn’t already too late, an attack on Iran’s nuclear faciclities would be the deathknoll to international anti-proliferation agreements.
There is a provocative, must-read challenge to anti-war activists published by two ex-CIA middle east specialists, whose thinking has moved outside the box of the “Washington Consensus.”
Bill Christison, a former senior official of the CIA, who served as a National Intelligence Officer and as Director of the CIA’s Office of Regional and Political Analysis; and Kathleen Christison, a former CIA political analyst who has worked on Middle East issues for 30 years and is the author of Perceptions of Palestine and The Wound of Dispossession, also discuss Syria & Palestine in It’s More Important Than Slowing Nuclear Proliferation: Let’s Stop a US / Israeli War on Iran. Their main points about Iran:
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ANKARA, Jan 2 (Reuters) – Turkey said today that newspaper reports which say the United States has asked Ankara for permission to use military bases in Turkey for possible attacks on neighbouring Iran are not connected with reality.
Some Turkish newspapers have reported or repeated similar stories in newspapers published in other countries which say that a series of high-profile U.S. visitors to Ankara in recent months have been preparing the ground for U.S. strikes from Turkey against Iran’s nuclear facilities.
“This speculation has no connection with reality,” Turkey’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
The United States accuses Iran of seeking to produce nuclear weapons. Tehran denies the accusation but insists on its right to produce enriched uranium, a vital component for nuclear power plants or bombs.
“Turkey considers that the problems in its region should be resolved by dialogue and negotiations. It believes our region does not need any new problems and that everyone should fulfil their responsibilities with this aim in mind,” the statement said.
The foreign ministry named no newspapers, but Israel’s Jerusalem Post, Germany’s Tagesspiegel and Turkey’s Sabah newspaper are among those that have published reports speculating that the United States would like to be able to use Turkish soil if it decided to launch an attack on Iran.
Relations between Ankara and Washington, traditionally warm, cooled sharply after the Turkish parliament in March 2003 rejected a U.S. request to allow U.S. troops to invade Iraq from Turkey. But they have steadily recovered over the past year.
The U.S. military uses Incirlik airbase in southern Turkey for planes supplying U.S. forces in Iraq and Afghanistan. But Washington cannot transport military personnel or ammunition without explicit permission from Turkish authorities.
Muslim but secular Turkey is a member of NATO and shares a border with both Iraq and Iran, and it has cordial relations with both.
Turkish Chief of Staff Gen. Hilmi Ozkok, left, and his Israeli counterpart Gen. Dan Halutz inspect a military honour guard at the headquarters of Turkish army in Ankara. Halutz arrived in Turkey for talks expected to focus on military cooperation and Iran's nuclear program. Turkey is Israel's closest ally in the region and the two countries have close trade and military ties. AP Photo/Burhan Ozbilici● Recent visit Israelis for talks with Ankara
● ‘Turkey Would not Allow Israeli Maneuvers’
Any Israeli attack on nuclear facilities in Iran, will be undertaken from German built submarines off the coast. No warning, until strikes hit their targets.
[Links and bold face added – Oui]
“Treason doth never prosper: what’s the reason?
For if it prosper, none dare call it treason.”
▼ ▼ ▼ MY DIARY
I can only hope that one day Israel will grant the US some form of independance.
before Iraq. Let’s hope they do again.
It was great watching Geraldo’s mustache get all upset when he realized he wasnt going to be rolling across any Turkish-Iraqi border in an Abrams full of macho fighting men.
The German-language version of the Spiegel article is dated 23 December and leads with this paragraph:
Spiegel’s emphasis seems to have shifted in translation…
The reason for an attack on Iran will be, if it isn’t already , to keep the Iraq government dependent on America support against the insurgents.
The Iraqi government wants help from Iran not the US in dealing with the insurgents and is threatening to attack US forces through it’s Badr Militia and possibly even the Kurdish militias, though that is less likely and has to do with Kurdish, not Shiite concerns.
Negoitiations in Turkey may have to do with how to keep Turkey from attacking the Kurds and this is being worked out with Israeal and the United States. The Kurds are the US’s best link on staying in Iraqi territory. The Shiites will ask them to leave. But if the Kurds separate, the US can still stay in Iraq for a much longer time. US presence in Kurdish areas keeps the Kurds in line for the Turks and it allows the US to claim it has withdrawn from the fighting in the rest of IRaq….but it must attack Iran first in order to do this. Attacks by air from time to time will be necessary to keep Iran in line.
A counter attack by Iran would translate to escalation and the total destruction of Iran’s capacity to grow and develop. That is the threat US forces will hold over Iran’s head. The US wants to turn Iran into the Iraq of the 90’s by imposing sanctions and keeping them weak.
I think that’s the plan
If/when the possible blowback occurs and the Iraqi forces are targeting the US military forces it will be reasonable to expect all previous antiwar comments to be blamed.