I think, like everyone else, my first reaction to learning that the FBI had raided Mar-a-Lago and entered the disgraced ex-president’s safe was to wonder what they were looking for. It soon began to leak out that the search warrant emerged from a grand jury that has been looking into Trump’s potentially illegal possession of highly classified material.

That was somewhat perplexing. Clearly a raid of Trump’s property would set off a massive political earthquake, and it would not be done lightly or for some ticky-tack crime. If it were really about classified materials, they must be the nuclear codes or the most secret weapons programs or a list of all the Chinese or Russians who spy for the United States. It certainly had to be about more than the menu for a birthday party held at the White House (which, we know, is one of the official documents Trump improperly secreted off to Florida).

The fact that a search warrant was authorized by a federal judge clearly indicates that Trump was not expected to comply with a subpoena, and also that a crime has been committed and the evidence of that crime was credibly believed to exist at the president’s Florida resort.

Then it emerged that the statute Trump likely violated includes a provision that the violator, upon conviction, “shall” forfeit any federal office they hold and become ineligible to hold any future federal office. I began to think this was a big-brained way of solving the Trump problem. Misuse of classified material may be a relatively minor offense, carrying a maximum sentence of three years in prison, but if it comes with a political death penalty and it is a simple straightforward easy-to-prove case, then why not save the country the trouble of a long complicated trial over seditious conspiracy?

Alas, it appears that qualifications for the presidency spelled out in the Constitution likely supersede any mere statutory restrictions. Trump could only barred from holding lower offices.

Of course, if the FBI found evidence of crimes during their search of Mar-a-Lago, even if completely unrelated to items on the search warrant, they can still use that evidence. It’s fun to speculate on what Trump had in his safe: compromising pictures of Lindsey Graham, proof that the pee tape is real, etc. But, given Trump’s lifelong dedication to crime, it’s a safe bet that there were a few unwholesome items to review.

Still, a fishing expedition doesn’t really add up as an explanation for the raid. Once you take the extreme step of treating an ex-president as the target of a criminal investigation, you better bring charges and win a conviction, and I have to believe that the Department of Justice went into this with a fully formed plan to pursue that path. They couldn’t have gone in on a wing and a prayer just hoping to find something more serious than what the warrant authorized.

A lot of people seemed similarly confused about what just happened and where it’s likely to lead. I’ve seen multiple pundits speculate that there must be someone in Trump’s inner circle who is cooperating with the government and telling them where to find evidence of crimes. Partly this speculation is based on the government’s ability to convince a judge that Mar-a-Lago held evidence of a crime. But, if the search was really about more than classified information, a rat on the inside might explain how a fishing expedition could be more of a slam dunk.

It’s an exciting show to watch, and not a little dangerous. I can’t wait to see where this leads.