These evacuations are equivalent to 72.40% of 819 manned platforms and 47.76% of 134 rigs currently operating in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM).
Today’s shut-in oil production is 1,511,715 BOPD. This shut-in oil production is equivalent to 100% of the daily oil production in the GOM, which is currently approximately 1.5 million BOPD.
Today’s shut-in gas production is 8.027 BCFPD. This shut-in gas production is equivalent to 80.27% of the daily gas production in the GOM, which is currently approximately 10 BCFPD.
The cumulative shut-in oil production for the period 8/26/05-9/28/05 is 37,881,777 bbls, which is equivalent to 6.919 % of the yearly production of oil in the GOM (approximately 547.5 million barrels).
The cumulative shut-in gas production 8/26/05-9/28/05 is 180.560 BCF, which is equivalent to 4.947% of the yearly production of gas in the GOM (approximately 3.65 TCF).
From the Minerals Management Service
The last sentence from the Minerals Management Service should send shivers up anyone’s spine. The total shut-in oil production is almost 7% of yearly totals.
For the last 6 months or so, the oil market has rallied whenever there was news of a refinery problem. US refineries are operating near 100% capacity, and have been for about the last 6 months. As a result, the oil refiners cannot simply shift production to a plant that has extra producing capacity because that plant does not exist.
And the problem won’t go away soon, as Reuter’s reports:
Oil prices jumped more than $1 on Wednesday after the U.S. government said up to 15 percent of the nation’s storm-battered refining capacity could stay shut for weeks, rekindling fears of fuel shortages.
Strikes in France, a leading U.S. gasoline supplier, could worsen the problem by hurting Europe’s ability to send shipments across the Atlantic, with the biggest French refinery already shut down by a work stoppage.
“The longer these refineries remain shut down, the more serious the situation becomes, particularly with the heart of the winter season just a few months away,” the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in a report about the storm-struck U.S. petroleum infrastructure.
As a result of lost production, a winter heating spike is now in the cards. The only question is if the projections of a 30-70% increase were too low.
Thanks for the update Bonddad. This certainly gives us a lot to think about. With supplies interrupted, when does the MSM or our government share these glad tidings with the American people??
It would seem what we have here is not only an energy shortage, but a leadership shortage as well. If we are to get through the winter up here in the northeast, it would seem that we should be working on a conservation plan now.
But who is there to design and then implement such a program, in a very short time frame??
Hopefully we will muddle through somehow, but I think business as usual in this country is about to come to a screeching halt.
business as usual will get us more of the same. As soon as people really start to feel the hurt from prices, they will demand a change.
Bonddad. Some people don’t think about the real reality of Iraq much because it just doesn’t affect them on the blood and guts level. When I was driving back from D.C. and I was watching people’s reactions at the gas pumps when I stopped to refuel I thought to myself……this is what is finally going to get everybody really upset. Sadly though, not the loss of our soldiers or all of the lies or all of the government rip offs.
Every year in CHicago here Commonweatlh Edison shuts off the electricy and Peoples Gas the Heat to people who don’t pay their bills during winter. People are found dead, frozen.
I wonder how people will survive. People who rent apartments can’t afford to rent them as they are losing money on heating bills and people who rent an pay utilities could possibly be paying more for heat than rent in some cases.
A cold winter could really be bad for people economically and health wise.
You are right, a LOT of people are going to die this winter, more than in a regular winter. Unfortunately, they will be all spread out and invisible and thus, pass under the radar with nary a peep of outrage.
It sounds like a New Orleans lite could happen!
…that the president opened up the fuel reserves when oil supply itself isn’t a problem…but the refining of oil is.
Wonder what they aren’t telling us.
I’ve been wondering that myself — what the hell good does it do us to have crude if we can refine it or ship it?
I think maybe it’s just a way of “calming the masses”….
Oil was relased after Katrina, at that time oil supply was a problem. The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, which allows tankers to unload was down, & other pipelines were down. After Katrina refineries were starved for oil. Katrina had a minimal structural impact on refineries. Rita smacked refineries pretty hard and inverted the equation, now there is plenty of oil, but a lack of refinery capacity.
He announced he was opening the reserve AFTER Rita. That’s what’s odd to me.
First annoucment was Thursday after Katrina, another announcment after Rita, why odd? He’s not really that bright, crap, he was even hiding from Rita in a bunker in CO.
and blame the government and hate them and vote new ones in next time and I’ll be jail for protesting Iraq. You guys had better not forget and leave me in there. Hey, now that I think about it being in jail and warm for free this winter is a terrific incentive for getting arrested for civil disobedience. God works in mysterious ways.
the little guy yesterday? Is he well? And his daddy? Are you hanging in there?
He had a bowl of jello and popsickle for dinner so how can you complain about that? Then he went to sleep. I have avoided calling this morning just in case daddy and son are sleeping in if the night was rough. He did fall asleep and they hadn’t given him any morophine…..they were all puzzled but just shrugged and let him sleep. He may have woke up though in pain and then they would have had to get that under control. It feels nice knowing that you are close by. I told my husband that if something happens you are there or you will be able to contact somebody who can be from the area. Love ya Cat!
I’m glad that thought can provide you some comfort!! You know and I hope he knows, I would walk through fire for you all, any time. Sound like the little guy came through it all like a trooper — but how could he have done otherwise, given hsi parents?
😉
When will they be coming back to you?
If there is a prolonged cold snap in the Northeast this winter, which is certainly possible (I’ve experienced a few), then there are going to be big problems. Could doubled heating bills (mine already go up to $400 a month) and increased pump prices to fill those SUV’s be the straw that breaks the camel’s back and sends all those middle class folks in debt up to their ears into bankruptcy? And then they are going to be screwed, because the bankruptcy laws have changed.
A little off track: Bonddad, I saw in Tuesday’s NY Times that Greenspan said that most homeowners are not overly in debt. His evidence: only about 5% have borrowed more than 90% of the value of their house. This floored me. That means that if you have borrowed say 85% of the value of your house you are not overly in debt?? I don’t get it.
“mortgage owners” who have no or minimal equity in homes recently purchased with 0 down payment.
Those who resisted the efforts of realtors to sell them more home than they can afford, and insisted on a fixed 6% or so may be able to squeak by, at least they will be able to stay in housing a few years more than if they had continued renting.
But those who were not so stringent will not be able to keep up with the payments, and those with the adjustable rate, or interest only deals will fall by the wayside pretty quickly.
These folks cannot borrow on their homes, even if they wished to, and even in the best of circumstances are carrying too much debt. While energy costs, and the cost of everything else rises, their incomes do not, if anything their incomes cease as they are laid off, and the low wage jobs, which are the ones that are plentiful, will not begin to cover basic expenses.
Subsuming all these people into the justice system will take time, maybe FEMA can build some more trailer cities like they did down in Punta Gorda, fence them off and warehouse the dispossessed in trailers.
Urban business and political leaders will not want them roaming the streets.
I’m still reading Greenspan’s research on the issue. It is very interesting, but it will take awhile to digest.
“not overly in debt”…? does that mean “As long as the bank can cover the value of the debt by repossessing the house, then the bank’s interests are covered” — it’s only when there’s more debt than property they can seize in payment that the debt becomes too great?
Argh. I rent, and utilities are included — I am not looking forward to seeing what our next rent increase will be when the lease is up in February.
And yet you KNOW the government won’t be subsidizing the price of heating oil or gasoline, because that would be “unfair” to the oil companies, to not let them make their accustomed obscene level of profits.
Now hold on jus’ a gol-dang minute there, Bonddad! You an’ them furrin Reuters fellas are sayin’
Are you sayin’ we’re gettin’ gas-o-leen from the frenchies? Puttin’ frog juice in my ol’ big-ass Ammurrkin SUV? You gotta be kiddin’ me. I’ll bet the Preznit don’t know ’bout this. He’ll make sure we go back to usin’ good ol’ U.S. of A. gas-o-leen, right quick.
Won’t he?
fuel subsidies for low-income families. Do you think your country might consider that, just for this winter until production increases?
a Canadian.
Always wanting to share the wealth! Always thinking that those who contribute to your country ought to at least have the necessities of life! I just don’t know what to do with you guys. It’s a great idea but it is welfare here in America and these guys don’t do welfare because if you are frozen and cold it is your own damn fault here in America.
I honestly think that wouldn’t even occur to them. They won’t rein in the prices, because that would cost the oil companies their rightful obscene profits, and of course, if anyone even suggested the government should subsidize it, you’d be amazed at how fast the Republicans would remember just how big and awful that federal deficit is.
Of course, they might also point out that if they privatized Social Security, then people would have their “own money” back to cover the cost of their heating bills… Or they might suggest “Personal Heating Oil Savings Plans” where people could put aside money from every paycheck (maybe they’d go so far as to make it tax-deductible, who knows?) to save up for their winter heating bills…. for next year.
Sigh…. Canada is so much more civilized sometimes.
boot straps, everyone for himself” idea is a Republican response to disaster. Having seen how people need each other and support one another during the USA’s two recent hurricanes sure proves that we ‘are our brothers’ keepers. And when citizens can’t help each other, because they are all caught up in the same disaster, why that’s where governments should come to the rescue, in an ideal world.
The overall problem won’t ever go away. The refinery problem is severe and immediate, but it’s only part of the issue. The era of cheap oil is ending, and we’ve got nothing to replace it with.
though……maybe we can run on Soylent Green!! I think my coffee just now finally kicked in.