Just north of the border an interesting development is taking place in Canada: with two weeks to go in the federal election for Canada’s new government, opinion polls are showing that the Conservative Party, headed by Stephen Harper, are edging ahead of the current minority government Liberal Party. The irony is that just as the US seems to be moving away from its lovefest with the far right, Canadians are holding their noses and thinking about voting into government a man who could be a Bush Clone.
Harper is on record as holding neo-con views on may issues, and in three major areas shares common ground with Bush’s Republicans.
Firstly, Harper will have a government which is closer to a theocracy than any government in Canada before, and bound to consider – and implement – many policies held dear by its powerful backing of its far right wing religious backers. This will be shown by its opposition to abortion and to gays, amongst other issues; and will end up with a religious litmus test being applied to future appointments to the Canadian Supreme Court.
Secondly, Harper shares the anti-statist views of the far right wingers in the Republican party. He, too, would like to remove taxing powers from the federal government so as to starve it so that it becomes weak enough to “drown in a bathtub”. He would do so by devolving taxing powers to the provinces, and giving far more deference to provincial governments (even those of a province, Quebec, which might wish to break the Canadian federation), than any previous federal government has done. The net effect will be the same: a weakened central government with restricted powers.
Thirdly, he shares the Bush belief that workers are too molly coddled and need the sharp discipline of the marketplace, exercised by powerful corporations. So, he too would weaken unions. He would change the magnificent social welfare system so painstakingly built up over decades in Canada, choosing one with fewer benefits and a dog-eat-dog aura to it. He would cut back on unemployment benefits.
On January 23rd, Canadians might – to their horror – wake up to find that they have Bush Junior as their elected leader. It took Bush about twelve months to start dismantling America’s government; expect Harper to do the same in his first year.
Finally, Bush will have a Canadian leader he will feel comfortable with, and one he can invite to join with Tony Blair and him at Camp David…..
If Harper does get a government, it’ll be a minority. And it won’t last more than a year. Heck, I doubt it’ll last 6 months. The Liberals were able to co-operate with the NDP and the Bloc. The Conservatives won’t be able to co-operate with anyone. And come next election, Harper will find that his precious popularity has diminished a tad.
I really doubt he’ll have the seats to form a government, though. He’s riding high right now because of new allegations of Liberal stupidity, and because he’s getting buckets of money from the American right-wing. I’d be surprised if that lasted him until election.
Are you watching the debate?
I’ve been feeling quite sick lately: it certainly seems like the conservs are gaining ground.
No, I’m not. Why? Is Harper doing well?
From what I’ve seen, it looks an awful lot like a small minority of very vocal supporters and poll results following the media dialog about Liberal corruption. Martin really dropped the ball there. I seriously doubt Harper will be able to form a majority government, and any minority he forms won’t last a year.
Martin didn’t have a strong start, but he’s gotten more lively now.
Harper definitely looks better than I’ve ever seen him. Whoever’s training him – Rove Jr. I imagine — is doing a heckuva job. Plus they’ve toned down his devil eyes or something.
No … I don’t know. I’ve just been hearing a lot of pundits this week saying the same thing you’ve said: that Martin’s team dropped the ball coming out of the holidays. The constant emerging scandals are going to cost the Libs. I’m starting to think that we’re going to have a conserv minority. And it scares the bejeezus out of me.
How much damage can Harper do if he gets in, even if it’s short-term?
Martin’s team did drop the ball. Actually, Martin dropped the ball a long time ago. The first thing he should’ve done when he took over was purge his inner circle of all Chretien’s old allies. That’s where most of the corruption seems to have been localized. Yet he tried to shuffle them off quietly, and now that’s coming back to bite him in the ass.
While we might get a Conservative minority, I expect the NDP to have the balance of power. The most recent polls I’ve seen have them at 17-20%. Definitely recovered from Layton’s “sided with Harper” dip at the start of the campaign, and two to five points up from their 15% take of the popular vote in 2004. If they actually manage to deliver on those numbers this time, we could see a lot of NDP seats.
The amount of damage Harper can do really depends on who’s got the balance of power. I doubt the Bloc or NDP will work with him on much, and the Liberals won’t on anything really radical. Which means that we could see another election in 6 months to a year. If Harper somehow manages to finagle a majority… We’re fucked for four to five years unless he gets mass defections. He won’t call an election until he absolutely must, because he’ll know that the instant he does, he’ll be out on his ass. He’ll try to do as much damage as possible before he gets forced out.
Just finished watching the debate – despite my post, I think Martin’s crew did two things that were very effective, and which could turn the tide for the Liberals.
Firstly, Martin brought up Harper’s speech in 1997, when he spouted off his neocon views, and hammered him on the differences between those views and mainstream Canada’s views. Harper really had no answer to that. I expect Martin hammer this theme for the next two weeks until election day.
Then Martin chose a wedge issue and dropped a challenge to Harper on it: Martin asked Harper to join him to pass a law which would bar the Federal government from using the Notwithstanding clause. A very canny move. Harper was caught flatfooted as were most commentators. The brilliance of this move is that it changed the dynamic: most of the discussions by the media after the debate revolved around this constitutional amendment proposal.
Why brilliant? Because it puts front and center the issue of Harper’s opposition to gay marriages, which are supported by most Canadians, and which the Supreme Court of Canada has ruled as a constitutional right in Canada. Harper had tried to fudge the issue early on in the campaign by taking it off the table: he said he would have a free vote in Parliament on banning gay marriages. The only way such a vote – if it passed – could bind the Supreme Court is if Harper then used the Notwithstanding clause. That clause in the Charter of Rights of the Canadian constitution allows the governments to disregard the Charter for a period of years, even if the laws they pass are unconstitutional. Harper refused to take the bait earlier on and say if he was prepared to use that clause to override the Supreme Court.
Tonight, Martin called Harper on this. Harper will have to address the issue of whether he will support the Liberals on this issue. The debate over the next few weeks – probably to be supported by television ads – will focus on these twin issues: Harper’s necon values, and Harper’s bias against gays.
Martin has taken the initiative away from Harper, and chosen two weak points which illustrate Harper’s bigotry.
Harper’s weakness in campaigning is that he thinks linearly, and cannot adapt well to change; Martin broke the linear pattern of the Conservative’s campaign and threw Harper for a loop – the expression on Harper’s face when the reporters questioned him on this issue spoke volumes about his discomfort with this sudden surprise turn.
This cat is out of the bag now; not Harper nor all his men and women will be able to stuff it back into the bag again in time for the election. There is still hope for Canada ….
Curiosity… When Martin hammered on those anti-Canada, pro-Repub statements by Harper he seemed to come alive. And Harper couldn’t really respond: it’s on the record.
I’m glad that those statements were made during the debate — I know most of us here in blogland have read them — but getting them out to the average non-internet voter is a big deal. Might give them pause. I know one pundit after the debate said that women in the GTA are still concerned with Harper and not comfortable with this policy. Maybe hearing his thoughts on Canada will push them further away from the conserv vote.
I loved when Martin told Harper, “America is our neighbour, not our nation!” Bringing up Harper’s words worked in another way: Harper had just previously criticized Martin for his anti-US commments of late re: trade and environment etc., so to see his very pro-US remarks after that was striking.
It will be interesting to see how this ban on Notwithstanding clause will play out this week. I know the journos and pundits afterwards were all talking about this being the first debate where policy was introduced.
Thanks for the great update!
I agree. That was absolutely brilliant. Both those moves were. The Nonwithstanding clause one, depending on how he follows through with it, might get Martin a lot of votes. I know that’s a big sticking point with soft-core Libertarians here in Canada, and they’d hold their noses for an awful lot to remove that particular stick from the Federal Government’s rack.
Second series of debates done and gone now, and Harper riding high in the polls. In the US, polls show votings starting the slow tsunami migration away from Republican sleaze, while in Canada – always a decade or so behind the US – the Conservative Party is cresting.
The polls should show Martin’s Liberals closing the gap on Harper’s Tories in the provinces of British Columbia and Ontario, by this weekend, or Martin is toast. The two issues Martin linked in his debate attacks (Harper’s neocon statements and the Notwithstanding clause) are now appearing in Liberal attack ads.
These Liberals will not go lightly into that dark night ….
Will they succeed? I think there is a 70% chance the polls will show that Harper crested last week, and those two provinces are moving away from him. Next week – the last week of the campaign, look for Harper to become petulant …