Robin Toner continues the meme that the Republicans can outperform the polls by utilizing their ‘vaunted’ 72-hour operation. This is getting to be a drumbeat. This is what it amounts to…forget polling, the GOP will win by identifying every Republican in America and getting them to the polls. It’s bullshit. I follow politics pretty closely, and I have barely ever heard of this 72-hour program before. They are bringing it up now to help dampen media expectations, maintain morale in their base, and set the stage for funky results that don’t coincide with pre-election polling. I repeat, it’s bullshit.
By every measure the Democrats are more motivated to vote this year and there are more people than ever stating their preference for Democrats. The polls currently indicate that the Dems will take the House and will break about even in the Senate.
A lot can change between now and election day. But I sincerely doubt the Republicans can overcome the mood of the country with some 72-hour project. They can overcome it by changing the mood of the country, or they can change it by tampering with the vote.
All this crap about a 72-hour operation is just hype.
Given the current state of things, this is a manifestation of growing desperation, nothing more.
will be low. It is almost always sub-40% in these elections. Therefore it is important for both sides to get out everyone they can. It seems now that those who want to vote against regal governemnt (not all Dems) are quite motivated to vote against them, which will help Dems. While the potential supporters of King George and Queen Foley are not motivated at all. However, low turnouts things can easily become unpredictble, so it is too early to celebrate yet.
Slightly off topic, as we regard ourselves as the greatest democracy on Earth it is actually very embarrassing that turnout in our election is so much lower than that in other countries. It is also embarrassing that almost 25% of the potential electorate are not even registered to vote. There is still a lot of work to be done on making the registration of voters a lot easier, which in the infomation age should be simple if there is a political will. We also need to concentrate on making the whole politcal exercise seem worthwhile those who are not registered/cant see a reason to vote or maybe we just want to remain a democracy for an elite of somewhere between the 36 and 55% of the potential electorate that recent history shows actually vote.
Around here (NY-20)… the republican candidate will have to implement a 72 hour program to win half the republican vote let alone the actual election if the results we are seeing during our door to door canvassing (of independents and republicans) are any sign. I’m hearing the same from my counter parts in the other counties across the district.
Kirsten Gillibrand will be live-blogging at Firedoglake this coming Saturday, Oct. 21, at 2:00 PM eastern.
Kirsten kicked ass again in fund raising this quarter. Preliminary numbers reported for her and her very, extremely, unworthy opponent are:
Don’t forget…
Kirsten Gillibrand will be live-blogging at Firedoglake this coming Saturday, Oct. 21, at 2:00 PM eastern.
(Oct. 21 is also my Mom’s 80th Birthday! Happy Birthday Mom – I’m giving you and Dad – his 80th is Wednesday, Oct. 25 – a Democratic House and Senate for your Octogenarian celebration – it’ll be a couple weeks late in arriving but I’m sure you’ll enjoy it when it arrives)
All I know is that of the few houses that have Republican Nancy Johnson signs in front of them in our neighborhood… Some are for sale???
Does that mean they will try and move away from her after she is elected OR is the campaign dropping signs in front of empty houses?
I wonder if they will try to vote for those empty houses owners as well? lol 🙂
In front of one of the houses in my development the owner has a ton of Republican campaign signs, including Nancy Johnson’s. The only issue is that we’re not in the CD CT-5 but in the CT-1. Lots of confusion clearly exists among some of the kool-aid quaffers.
I too have my doubts about the 72 hr fantasy ploy, though I wonder, as does BooMan, whether it’s window dressing for anomalous results on election day. I have never doubted the Re-thoritarians’ penchant for fraud or dirty tricks, and think this misunderestimated misadministration has got it in spades … much worse than even Nixon.
In any case, just an observation from my neck of the woods … I’ve noticed recently that the yard signs around here for state races just don’t identify who the Repubs running are, though the Democrats do. There were a few candidates whose names I’d seen and not recognized who had no clear affiliation until I researched them further (even one who knocked on my door a couple months back). I was wondering if this might be a trend here or if similar things are happening elsewhere … even Jeff Lamberti, who’s running against our old “Blue Dog” Boswell doesn’t identify as a Repub, though Boswell’s signs clearly say “Democrat.” Same thing on lower level races … Are they ashamed? Or just trying to pull the “I’m an independent” wool over folks’ eyes as have several of the flyers I’ve gotten in the mail recently …
Shame? Oh, that’s right, they have no shame … so there must be some other ulterior motive.
their late minute shenanigans, including messing with Diebold. If they can confuse the issue, maybe nobody will notice that a 10 digit lead suddenly became a 2 digit loss.
And to cause further confusion is their naval exercises scheduled for 10/31. Look there is a war, ignore the home issues, we have another war!
The gist of the 72-hour operation is to make sure that every last person who even has a halfway inclination to vote Republican gets to the polls and votes Republican. Call it a thorough canvass. A very thorough canvass. They are not changing opinions, they are getting folks of their opinion to the polls. It did make a difference in 2004 because Democratic supporters in safe blue states and red states did not turn out at the polls in as high a numbers as Republicans got their people out. It gave them enough of the popular vote to obscure the shenanigans in Ohio (and probably Florida as well).
They don’t have to overcome the mood of their supporters; they just have to get them to the polls. They are counting on the off-year effect.
So Democrats need a 96-hour operation that ensures that all potential Democratic voters get to the polls in large numbers. Even when it’s a safe Dem seat, it provides a mandate. Even when it’s a safe Rep seat, it denies a mandate and makes the race closer than expected.
Democrats have been stuck in trying to do just enough to win, just enough. We need to go flat out and ensure that we win the seats we win by as large a margin as possible and lose the seats we lose by as little a margin as possible. Then, the political analysts will be able to reinforce the victory by talking about a seismic shift in American politics; that is the narrative that we want – tsunami, seismic shift, and so on.
We blow off the Republican 72-hour operation at our peril. They really do a 72-hour canvassing blitz up through election day and they also focus on making sure their politicized churches get turnout.
I also think it’s crap. In my district, I have seen precisely ONE Heather Wilson lawn sign. It says, “Another house for Heather.”
My daughter said she was tempted to take a sharpie to it so it would read, “The ONLY house for Heather.”
Republicans all over the country are dispirited and angry. Democrats are energized and increasingly organized. And if Diebold was going to make such a huge difference, why is the RNC pouring late money into so many campaigns? Why are they cranky that the preznit is giving them no plan for what will happen if they lose Congress?
Who’s gonna win? I have no idea. But I absolutely do not believe that the Republicans have some magic trick up their sleeves to make it all better. They just want us to believe that.