In a move that makes me wobbly on my Iowa prognostication, Kucinich has asked his supporters to make Barack Obama their second choice. That could be enough to put Obama over the top. In 2004, Kucinich threw his support behind John Edwards and it made a big difference. It was odd choice in 2004 and it is a surprising move now. His rationale is brief.
“I hope Iowans will caucus for me as their first choice this Thursday,
because of my singular positions on the war, on health care, and trade.
This is an opportunity for people to stand up for themselves. But in those
caucus locations where my support doesn’t reach the necessary threshold, I
strongly encourage all of my supporters to make Barack Obama their second
choice. Sen. Obama and I have one thing in common: Change.”
This could cost Edwards. It also could cost Hillary.
What is Dennis smoking?
Can’t be a bad weed that allows him to see empty posturing for what it is.
Reality, methinks.
AG
I thought the “fix was in” so I’m surprised you see any maneuvering on the part of Kucinich relevant let alone reality based.
AG
He’s putting the fix in … DK wants to be “relevant” to the outcome, which was all he took out of the last Presidential election (ie, the argument that he put Edwards into second, and ultimately into the VP slot)
I don’t know how much of a fixer he could be this time … his “I support him because he takes the most progressive positions and was against the war from the start” people will know which of the two they put a higher priority on, and break accordingly. But, more to the point, there are not as many of them now as there were then.
Richardson and Biden are more important this time.
yeah, i agree. richardson and biden probably have more support to throw around.
i assume richardson’s 2nd choice instructions would be clinton. i’m less clear about biden.
Obama has offered Kucinch something, can’t imagine what, but something.
In 2004, Dennis sent his voters to Edwards, despite the fact that Dean’s platform and Dennis’s seemed more in sync. When asked about it, Kucinich replied that it kept him in the race longer. Perhaps we are seeing more of the same cynical calculus from the Demorcrats most idealistic candidate.
Kucinich has primary opposition for his congressional seat. It may be Obama promised to endorse him in his primary.
… and it also strikes me that its a district where an endorsement from Obama would swing a lot of weight, no matter where Obama finishes.
l disagree, l think your earlier prognostication is still valid.
l’d be surprised if it negatively effects edwards. l doubt his supporters will just roll over to obama on autopilot because of this…l suspect edwards, whose positions are a lot more similar to k’s, will benefit the most from that scenario.
frankly, l don’t think hillary benefits from any caucuses where k fails to meet the threshold. dodd is more likely to be the winner in that regard, imo.
this looks and sounds like the first step in the direction of dropping out, eh.
lTMF’sA
I would doubt that Kucinich has many followers in Iowa who would be so loyal as to follow his advice on their second choice. After all, Kucinich was not serious enough about them to even rent a retail space to run his campaign from. That’s a real insult. I think they’ll go with their gut on the second choice and not blindly follow his advice. Also keep in mind that Caucuses are local peer-pressurized events. When they learn that their number 1 choice is not viable, they will join their friends or the most persuasive lobbyists from other campaigns. So whoever has the best, most persuasiove recruiters in the local caucuses will get the most second choices. Edwards and Clinton know how to work this angle. I’m not sure Obama does.
That said, it’s really unpredictable. It all depends on who wants to show up at and participate in the caucuses.
… Dean’s result that people never seem to mention … whether those who did caucus for him were experienced enough in the process to gain ground on the night.
Edwards supporters include a large number who have caucused before, and he has the largest number of precincts with two trained precinct captains, and Senator Clinton has Vilsack in her camp, who will have his own network of experienced local supporters on the ground, so, yes, it is Senator Obama where this seems to be the biggest open question.
OTOH, he has a real big field organization, and if he did effective training on college campuses in the fall, then the early date might work to his advantage, in spreading those trained caucus participants out around the state, because they are at home for the holidays.
The right move on Dennis’ part. It is difficult to know how far he could have gone acting as the conscience of the Democratic party, the liberal-socialist people oriented party it used to be.
And how many divisions does Kucinish have?
with an H
… the h you had.
Note to self: Do not blog before coffee.
… but I never read notes to myself before coffee, so they never do any good.
I’ve asked my supporters to make Edwards their second choice.
they’ll never listen to you.
a chicken in every pot, a car in every garage, and impeachment on the table
save the republic…write in
lTMF’sA
I did have some doubts, but I know were my vote is going now. BORAN!!!!!!!
Wow, dada! Maybe I should talk to them again. 😉
But my slogan is Some pot in every chicken, or brownie.
Did someone say brownies?
as much as you like to cook fm, l’d recommend you get a copy of alice b. toklas’ cookbook
l’ll bet you could find it on amazon, and l suspect there’s plenty of locally grown produce.
and speaking of cooking…later
lTMF’sA
People make mistakes, and I can see this as another Kucinich gaffe. It makes no sense to me to endorse a candidate that is less peace oriented, than the very peaceful Kucinich. What the fuck?
it is odd that kucinich who i consider to be a major peace candidate would support any of the top three as they all seem to intend on sticking around in iraq for the long term, in some capacity.
i’d rather have seen kucinich back up edwards. alas.
but i will be so glad when this iowa cacus and the NH primary are over. so much hype, ever four years. about what such tiny states think. maybe at one time iowa and maine and NH were more indicative of the country but i don’t believe that anymore and get tired of the run-up to these two – it’s like the opening of some big hollywood blockbuster, a lotta hype.
If Edwards is not one of the top three, then who do you think the top three are?
.
Even the mighty Kos can be persuaded to react on a Newsmax version of debate amongst Democrats. See my diary.
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."