I enjoy watching Republicans fight. Watching the Republican debate last night I got the feeling that Mitt Romney is one of those thin-skinned people that lacks self-confidence and can’t take a punch. So, it was amusing to see this:
If you think things got a bit testy between John McCain and Mitt Romney during the ABC News debate here at St. Anselm College Saturday night, you didn’t see the half of it. After the debate, when top campaign aides and surrogates came to the Spin Room to tout their candidates’ performances, members of the Romney and McCain camps said the things their bosses might have been thinking but did not dare utter onstage.
McCain delivered “cheap shots,” said one Romney adviser. Another called McCain’s criticisms of Romney “snide remarks” and “name calling.” Yet another said they were “unbecoming.” All of which caused Mark Salter, McCain’s closest aide, to go off.
“Come on, Mitt, tighten up your chin strap,” Salter, standing just a few feet away from the Romney team, told reporters. “Of all the ludicrous suggestions – Mitt Romney whining about being attacked, when he has predicated an entire campaign plan on whoever serially looks like the biggest challenger gets, whatever, $20 million dropped on his head and gets his positions distorted. Give me a break. It’s nothing more than a guy who dishes it out from 30,000 feet altitude and then gets down in the arena and somebody says, O.K. Mitt, gives him a little pop back, and he starts whining. That’s unbecoming.”
Ouch. Romney is polling behind McCain and his only hope is that people that are undecided between Obama and McCain break overwhelmingly for Obama. He should be a little concerned about his support among Republican voters, too. He looks soft in comparison to Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani. Fred and Rudy aren’t going to do very well in the primary, but they could see their numbers go up modestly at Mitt’s expense.
One thing I disagree with the national pundits about…
I don’t think Romney is finished if he loses in New Hampshire because McCain and Huckabee have very little money to compete in February 5th’s twenty-plus contests. Giuliani is hording his money to try to win in Florida and make a big ad buy on Super Duper Tuesday. But, let’s face it, Giuliani is too marred in scandal to realistically win the nomination…especially after badly losing the first five contests. If I’m Romney, I compete in Michigan, where his father was a fairly successful governor, and then outspend the rest on ad buys in the Feb. 5th national primary.
If Romney sticks around, he might find he’s still the candidate acceptable to biggest percentage of Republican voters. Lord knows, McCain has his problems with the Republican base and Huckabee has his problems with the Republican Establishment.
Meanwhile, the New Hampshire polls show Obama moving out to a 7 or 8 point lead. Even the Zogby tracking poll, which still shows Clinton ahead by 1 point, has Obama up large yesterday. Here’s Zogby (via email).
Make no mistake about it, there is movement here. Only 50% of this sample is after the Iowa caucus results were known and there has been a 5-point swing on the Democratic side. Clinton started out leading 32% to 26% over Obama and now she is in a dead heat at 31% to 30%. Obama has won in that part of the sample taken since Iowa and just this past one day alone Obama led by 8 points.
I can’t see anything changing dramatically between now and Tuesday, except a growing wave of independents breaking for Obama. Even David Broder says the nomination is now Obama’s to lose.
I don’t think Romney is finished if he loses in New Hampshire because McCain and Huckabee have very little money to compete in February 5th’s twenty-plus contests.
Mitt’s has a bundle. But Mitt needs to develop a message he can deliver with conviction.
Meanwhile Billary’s struggling and whinning that the media has put her at a disavantage. Unbelievable.
Here’s her latest:
What happened to the great machine? Penn, Carville, Terry, what happened?
They know they’re screwed.
did you see the latest USA Today/Gallup Poll? A shocker for Clintons, no,
at Huffpost
CNN poll shows the same thing.
That CNN poll shows him at pretty much your bounce calculation from the other night:
But Hillary didn’t drop as much as calculated and Edwards dropped to 19 – not good for Edwards.
oops, I meant the Gallup poll.
It was taken Friday through this afternoon. So part of it was after last night’s debate. It’s too bad it’s such a fast track and the post Iowa bounce polls overlap the post-debate polls. It would be interesting to see if opinion on Hillary started to shift up or down following the debate. I’m guessing it didn’t help her. But no way to know from this poll.
I think my estimate will be pretty accurate in the end. But it will end up adding to 100%, unlike my projection.
BooMan, your Iowa bounce numbers were spot on.
recall that Mike Henry May 2007 memo on Clinton Campaign -an alternative nomination strategy – leaked to NYT? (via TPM)
What’s your take on ‘Key Points and Take a ways’?
Given the $$$ at stake: cost of Iowa and NH, she’ll need to raise significant sums to continue the 22 states. A loss in NH and Donors may be in panic mode with some at their legal limits. Josh Marshall notes Penn does not appear to have a good track record.
Oh my. George Will may just be on to something, got one thing right – we may be witnessing “closing the Clinton parenthesis in presidential history.”
She’ll stay in through Super Tuesday – money isn’t going to stop her. She can raise it. There are a lot of delegates at stake. California may turn out to be a key primary state for the first time since … 1972?
I have absolutely no feel for California.
Well, if she doesn’t beat uncommitted in Michigan, what’s the point?
You think she won’t beat uncommitted?
I started to type that this was irrational until I remembered that I voted for a dead man who won.
But I still think she’ll win Michigan.
Please shed light. re MI and FL not being seated at the convention.
Why would Chris Bowers offer this
Hmmm. This further pads her delegate advantage
Nice choice of words there Chris.
Is the DNC setting up for a riot or is the fix in?
Months from now, if Obama proves his appeal across the broader demographics – Indies, Reagan Democrats, first time voters under 30s, Hispanics – will super delegates nix the day?
I’ll hold the headlines.
But the related implications: Dems have always taken the Afro-American vote for granted – can’t win a general election without them. I predict Hispanics will also flow to Obama.
So much for the Clintons and the black president thingy, except when it’s their turn.
I’ll go adopt a monkey. Just saying.
President McCain or Huckabee.
I too don’t really understand. Is Michigan a winner-take-all state? Is that why all of the 128 pledged delegates go to Clinton.
Or is uncommitted not really a ballot choice and she’s the only one on the ballot?
On the DNC issue, I’ve never believed that the DNC wouldn’t seat those delegations. But I haven’t followed it very closely so I’m as confused as you.
I figured it out. It’s sloppy. Bowers meant to say that Clinton would win almost all the delegates and Obama and Edwards will surely win none. Uncommitted will do quite well, I’m sure.
are these the 2 states that are being “punished”by the PTB for not falling in line with primary scheduled dates or having changed their primary dates?
Dodd and Clinton are on the ballot in Michigan, along with uncommitted. Someone has to win.
As for delegate apportionment, I don’t know whether Michigan is winner take all, but I doubt it. If Bowers knows better, he knows better. Or maybe he was being sloppy.
I am pretty sure everyone is on the ballot in Florida. Again, I don’t think it is winner take all, but am not sure.
The delegates will most likely be seated, perhaps at a reduced rate. Wyoming, for example, lost have their delegates from today’s Republican caucus.
unless something’s changed since sept…none of the dem. candidates are participating in florida.
lTMF’sA
I think they are all on the ballot but the candidates have vowed not to campaign there.
Here’s the Miami-Dade County site with a link to the sample ballot – they are all on it.
“If you think John Edwards’ coif is worth $400 then you should see my stylist’s bill!”
Romney has no convictions other than self-promotion and naked ambition. If he thought he could become president by giving lap dances then we’d see him on C-SPAN in a thong and garter gyrating and getting buck in here.
My apologies for the visual.
Okay, there was one caucus in Iowa where he got a third of the votes and the nomination is now Obama’s to lose? I am 50-50 between Obama and Edwards, but I don’t see it as Obama’s to lose quite yet. This is just more horserace bullshit with the starting gate just opening up. We’ve got months and months to go. Imagine how many dead hookers and live boys the CIA can plant before the conventions!
Actually, hearing that from David Broder gives me some hope that Edwards could still win the nomination. Sure, Broder has to be right every now and then by sheer chance, but I don’t buy Obama’s inevitability any more than I bought Clinton’s.
The only thing I’m sure of at this point is that we are going to be sick to death of all of these turkeys by the time the nominations are final, never mind the general election.
Edwards needs Hillary out. And then he needs some kind of unanticipated event.
Heh, I saw Mitt today remarking about his performances to date getting the silver (but hoping for the gold), a somewhat obscure reference to his administrative role in the 2002 winter games. (Salt Lake City)
Booman, go outside and get a breath of fresh air.
OK, now …
(1) David Broder is a pundit/reporter …
(2) You have just cited polls that somebody who jumped at every new poll and made up a new narrative to fit, normally selected from the various spins offered by various political insiders, would certainly jump at and pick a spin in response …
(3) So what David Broder says is additional evidence of anything in particular … how, exactly?
Well, according to the Washington Post Clinton has now taken control of her message.
they can’t believe they lost so fast.
Full panic mode. They are already diminishing expectations for SC. But hiring staff for Super Tuesday.
When she loses California – then she’ll throw in the towel.