I didn’t do any of those 2007 retrospective or ‘what to expect in 2008’ types of diaries. So, here you go:
Goldman Sachs on Wednesday said it expects the U.S. economy to drop into recession this year, prompting the Federal Reserve to slash benchmark lending rates to 2.5 percent by the third quarter.
In a note to clients, Goldman said real gross domestic product would contract by 1 percent on an annualized basis in both the second and third quarters. For all of 2008, the investment bank said GDP would rise by 0.8 percent.
The unemployment rate will rise to 6.5 percent in 2009 from the current 5 percent, it said.
I know we live in a society where everything everything that happens redounds to the Republicans’ (or Hillary Clinton’s) advantage no matter how counterintuitive it might seem. But it’s hard to see how a full-on recession is going to help the Republicans retain the White House.
A further indication of trouble for the GOP can be seen in the details of Goldman Sach’s recommendations. They tell their investors to drop their investments in discretionary consumer spending and information technology and dump it all into health care stocks. People still get sick even, and especially, in bad economic times.
If a recession appears before the nominations are set it could benefit candidates that have a populist message. I guess this is one more reason for Edwards to stick around.
I haven’t done any polls in a while. So have at it.
It’s such a weak field. Whomever they choose, they are lame ducks from the get go.
Our economy can’t go on like this, it’s already a Potemkin Village, and soon to fall down. It’s a house of cards, a house built on sand, and we’ll all pay, pay, pay — and cut back, cut back, cut back. It will be like the 70’s again, where we scraped for pennies and squirrelled away the dimes for future times, for a brake job or new headlights and oil.
I suspect credit will finally tighten up for consumers, and they start to learn to live without credit cards.
You know how many people I know who say: “I’m going to my grave with all my debt, who cares if I ever pay off my debt?” In a way, they are right. They have homes, they have their American luxury conveniences, but someday, that cable bill and cell bill for $100+ per month is going to get slashed to pay that $500+ credit card minimum payment. Wait. Wait. The new bankruptcy law was established with EXACTLY a recession in mind . . . . The banks WILL get their money back, with interest.
Remember Stanley Johnson from 2004?
He’s probably lost his home by now and it’s on the market as a “short sale” by the bank, who is willing to sell it for a couple hundred grand less than Stanley owes them.
Stanley now realizes that the “Ownership Society” is different than his guy Bush described it. He’ll probably vote Democratic this time.
I just love that old ad. Any chance I get to point people to it, I do.
we’re already in a recession. It began in 2007 many are in denial. Goldman is just hopping on board.
Foreget the crap stats on unemployment and core inflation based on birth-death models.
Credit has tightened. Inflation on the rise. Insolvencies abound as the biggest U.S. banks go begging the sovereign wealth funds (foreign governments) of China, Singapore and the Gulf states.
financial ahead. the trillions of debtto be repudiated followed by hyper-inflation.
You know what you’re talking about. What almost everyone overlooks in their financial analysis is the INFLATION concerns. When was the last time you heard the CPI reported without excluding Energy and Food? Both of these have been going through the roof and if we were honest with ourselves by not excluding the two most important items in Americans’ lives, we might see that we’re in deep shit.
At the same time, the markets expect the Fed to lower interest rates, conveniently overlooking the fact that INFLATION ties their hands. If they cut rates too much, inflation will soar. Economics 101 here. Ugh!
The Republican race is probably the hardest to predict. I really can’t answer because I just don’t have a clue.
“I know we live in a society where everything everything that happens redounds to the Republicans’ (or Hillary Clinton’s) advantage no matter how counterintuitive it might seem.”
I guess the Hillary snark is just Democratic, oh, excuse me, progressive fun, but you really are inching toward Chris Matthews levels here.
You really have a hardon against Hillary.
That’s a natural reaction to her political gyrations…
that’s a good one.
No. That’s just plain icky. Really, Boo. You can do better.
I really am sad to see one of my very favorite bloggers go off in such a direction. I, too, was disappointed in the NH outcome, but it’s far from over, man. Also, realistically do you actually think there is such a great difference between the policies that will be pursued by Obama, Clinton, or Edwards once they get in office? From where I stand, they are all center or a bit right-of-center. At the same time, I know we’re not going to get a really truly progressive candidate elected in my lifetime. So keep some perspective.
(I’m probably older than you, as someone who really did march with Martin Luther King in the 60s, and who worked on the McGovern campaign in Michigan in 1972, one of the “fondest” memories being a vegie dinner sitting on the floor with Jane Fonda, Tom Hayden, my wife and two other people.)
I’m glad that I’m one of your favorite bloggers but I am not going off in any new direction.
From ‘Day One’ I have been an implacable opponent of the Democratic Leadership Council, the New Democrat Coalition, the Blue Dog Coalition, Bruce Reed, James Carville, Joe Lieberman, Tom Carper, Evan Bayh, Ben Nelson, and, yes, their champion, Hillary Clinton.
When I look at Hillary Clinton, I see the titular head of this faction, not some story about perseverance and standing up to the big bad Republicans. This is the faction, led by Chuck Schumer, that rammed Bob Casey down our throats and tried to ram Harold Ford Jr. down our throats. They are the one’s that told Brad Miller they wished he was pro-life and then maybe they’d be more enthusiastic about a possible North Carolina senate bid. They are the party of NAFTA and the faction that supported the invasion of Iraq and refused to force a showdown over funding. They are the ones that think warrantless wiretapping deserves immunity, and that habeas corpus is quaint.
She’s their leader. And I oppose them with everything I have.
Right On, Boo!
Hey, we’re on the cusp of a totally new era, possibly a progressive era like we enjoyed between 1933-1968. And some people are trying to fuck it up. I kind of care about shit like that.
Murderous deficits and weak dollar don’t give the Fed much room. Interest rates are historically low as it is and the dollar is suffering. Bush will come up with some tax cut scheme that will only line his buddies pockets and make the debt bigger. We may have to take this one on the chin. Hopefully they will extend unemployment benefits. When people have to pay for food and shelter its far better stimulus then it being set in an offshore account by a bunch of crooks. But try telling the that to the rich F’ers in the senate and the whitehouse.
It would make the official unemployment level go up.
I wouldn’t be so cavalier about taking it on the chin. There is going to be a lot of misery.
I remember in 1992 when Bush’s daddy was up for re-election. I happened to be on unemployment benefits at the time and Bush’s daddy extended them out of desperation because Clinton was lookin’ to kick him out of the White House. Trust me, No Way In Hell is Junior Bush going to support the hurtin’ unemployed people like his pussy dad did. No way! Dubya’s a Real Man.
It’s a little different this time. Baby Bush is not up for re-election. He wants to have good statistics when he leaves office.
Yup. He’s got his “Legacy” to worry about. Right now the economy is in free-fall, swirling down the toilet. What’s his idea of a “stimulus package?” Making his tax cuts permanent and permanently eliminating the “Death Tax.”
It’s so predictable. You couldn’t make this shit up.
True that may have been a bit cavalier. I remember the 1980 recession. I was pretty new to the workforce at 21 years old. This is not a joke.
I hear you.
You already know exactly what will happen if there is a recession.
They’ll blame it on Clinton.
Which Clinton they blame it on will be an interesting tell…
Speaking of polls,
I’ve been calling people tonight on behalf of Obama. So far – the response is all Obama except for two women, both older, one of which said she was a diehard Clinton fan, and the other who was really undecided between Obama and Clinton, who said she just really wanted to see a woman in the White House. I mentioned my own concerns that Hillary was the one candidate we could elect who might unite the opposition against us, and she sighed and had to agree.
But, and I’m sorry to report this for Edwards fans – so far, not one. Not a hint. Not a whisper.
I fear Edwards is dramatically overrepresented in the blogosphere, and that activist types like us migrate to blogs and speak out more because we know so much and care so much. But the blogs are NOT a mirror of what’s going out there.
My big fear is that Edwards and Obama will split the anti-Hillary vote, and we’ll be left with the one candidate who the other side hates with a passion. I hope that isn’t what happens, because I think that’s our worst possible outcome.
I think what we’re going to see is that after Super Duper Tuesday, Edwards will drop out of the race to become Obama’s veep. And then it will be over for Clinton.
Well, that’s what I hope is going to happen out of the remotely plausible possibilities.
That’s been my hope for a while too. And I also hope Al Gore comes out the woodwork and endorses Obama before February 5.
Thanks to our excellent news companies, many people don’t even know that Edwards is running. I mentioned him to someone recently. She was delighted to learn that Edwards is running.
Who is running McCain’s campaign? You’ve got to read this post about his campaign music….
First that awful “victory speech” in New Hampshire and now this. Repeat after me. Pa-thet-ic.