Anyone that reads this blog knows that I am pulling for Barack Obama and that I have low personal regard for Mrs. and Mr. Clinton. So, yeah, I am biased. But Obama won the night tonight by every available measure. Chuck Todd on MSNBC has done the national delegate estimate (using the most optimistic Clinton campaign projections for California) and got: Obama 841 Clinton 837. It will probably be a slightly larger lead for Obama, but not more than 15-20 additional delegates.
Obama didn’t just win the delegate battle, he won the states battle. Obama won (14) Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Alabama, Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, Minnesota, North Dakota, Idaho, Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, Alaska. Clinton won (8) New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Arkansas, California, Arizona, and Oklahoma.
Then there is the expectations game. Obama had two big upsets in Connecticut and Missouri, while Clinton had none.
I’ll have more to say about the race as I have time to look at the results, the exit polls, etc. This morning I laid out what I thought each candidate needed to do to declare victory. Neither of them quite accomplished the goal. For example:
Clinton will be able to claim a victory if she holds on in California, Missouri, New Jersey, and Connecticut. She’ll be able to lay claim to a resounding victory is she wins, in addition, Alabama and Tennessee, and big caucus states like Minnesota.
Well, Clinton failed to hold Missouri and Connecticut, and she was crushed in Alabama and Minnesota. She clearly can’t declare victory in the expectations game. On Obama, I said:
For Obama to get a landslide win he needs to be victorious in California and Missouri, and then either Connecticut or New Jersey.
Two out of three ain’t bad, but without California he can’t claim a landslide win. Nevertheless, only the result in California prevented that outcome.
I don’t see how Clinton can win the nomination now. I think she still has a chance…she didn’t get knocked out…but it’s now Obama’s race to lose. He’s got more money, he’s got more mojo, and Clinton doesn’t have any more Arkansas or New Yorks left on the schedule.
I think it looks very good. I am happy with the results tonight and confident about Barack’s chances from here on. It isn’t going to be easy and he will need lots of help, but I think that I will be voting for Barack Obama in three elections he will win: the PA primary in April, the Nomination at the Convention in August and the Presidency of the United States in November.
Yes. Per the Clinton camp’s own projections, they did poorly. They expected to knock Obama out by tonight. They clearly did not and they are having to try and play catch-up with the inferior candidate.
Better start organizing in Philly, Boo. Your precinct may be the deciding votes this year…
I said this in the other thread, but he’s still got an uphill battle. He needs to run the table between now and March 4 and then he needs a definitive win in Texas and/or Ohio. He needs to simply win a big state. But to convince the superdelegates he needs a DEFINITIVE win of a big state.
But, he can worry about that tomorrow. Tonight was a good night for him. Not a perfect night. Not even a great night. But a good night.
Not Texas, the Hispanic vote is huge. I hope he wins Ohio. It’s crucial in November.
By the way, per CNN, eleven million Democrats voted today compared to 7 million Republicans. That’s a 61-39 split. And how many of these states were Gore-Kerry states? Only a few of them (although many of the large ones).
Sounds like the Dems win no matter who the nominee is. Or at least that’s what the Clintons will claim.
Don’t count on it. CA and NV Hispanics voted the same but AZ Hispanics were more favorable toward Obama. With a little work, Texas Hispanics could move to Obama in a big way. Right now, Obama is an unknown to them still. He didn’t introduce himself to them early enough.They need to learn that Hillary has no plans to address their immigration issues in her first term and Obama actually intends to tackle them in his first year. This was a big failure of the Obama campaign. He needs to get Chris Dodd (and others) out there speaking fluent Spanish on his behalf to get this across. Hillary is using these people just like she uses gays and used to use blacks. She has no intention of helping these people but plays them for suckers.
Well maybe he can put together Ohio and Pennsylvania (I hear that’s a big state).
The remaining big states are TX, OH & PA. Obama has a lot of work over the next few weeks to peel voters from four demographics where he is getting crushed – Hispanics, Asians, blue collar workers and those over 60. He can’t win these big states and specially TX without making a significant dent among these segments.
Well Boo,
You have convinced me. After tonight I think what you said about the possibilities of Obama and coat tails is likely. He will have HUGE coat tails. You had to read between the lines with the horrible media coverage we get, but if you paid close attention you could see the possibilities of Obama.
I still think he will not be as tough as I would like, but with sweeps in congress it might not matter.
nalbar
One more thing,
On MSNBC Fineman said something interesting. He said;
‘What Clinton did tonight is she managed to fight Obama to a standstill’.
He said that while claiming Clinton was doing well. Yet that statement exposes that Clinton is staving off defeat. She was the FRONTRUNNER! yet it is SHE that is on the defensive.
Fineman did not even seem to know what he was admitting.
nalbar
My husband expected a huge Obama-slide. I told him that there was no way Obama was going to win all the states. But still, considering that Obama was down 20, 30 points in some places just a few months ago, this is very good. Considering he was down 10, 15 points in some places 3 weeks ago, some of those wins are astounding.
AZ’s latest:
82.1% Reporting
Hillary Clinton – 167,715 or 50.3%
Barack Obama – 138,172 or 41.5%
John Edwards – 19,747 or 5.9%
I’m getting sleepy
“We are the ones we’ve been waiting for” – I’m almost positive that that phrase comes out of a Native American tradition.
I like your analysis and tend to agree. He has had some serious momentum the past few weeks since Iowa, and considering that he’s up against the Clinton machine, I think today was a great exercise in democracy. Can’t wait to see the delegate shake-out.
I know that I’ve read a gajillion times in books. It wasn’t Obama’s (duh) and it certainly wasn’t Shriver’s.
Hopi
I was just going to say that Maria Shriver said it was a Hopi Prayer.
Great post Booman. I only hope you are right. I loved Obama’s speech tonight: plenty of inspiration, but with just the right edges highlighted. He will sweep the Chesapeake primaries by a huge margin and then it will set up for the showdown in Ohio. Forget Texas – Ohio will be extremely important, and, if he can win big, decisive. He’s a midwesterner and I think that will resonate. I live in the Philly area and I can’t stand the negative, churlish, hostile, suspicious, paranoid, ignorant, parochial, excessively ethnic, typical white Democratic voter here and throughout the Northeast. Since I derive from this group I have special permission to be honest about them. I hate to see Hillary win any states that Obama should have won, but I would say that this constituency doesn’t deserve a candidate as good as Obama. The decent people of Ohio do.
Don’t “forget Texas.” I can see Obama really kicking ass in Texas. He does exceptionally well among rural voters and will also do well in the big cities of Texas. The Hispanic vote is also winnable if he approaches it right. Don’t give up on Texas. I don’t think anyone there thinks highly of Hillary, but Barack could win them over.
I am convinced that he could also win over Ohio. He just needs to get the right resources together to make both happen. Both states could love him if they get to know him.
I take it back. You are right. If he can win both Texas and Ohio…wow!
Goes to Obama. That surprises me. I thought that would be Clinton territory like the Republican areas of CA.
California relatives reported a startling demographic divide, as of about midnight.
82% voters with less than a high school education–Hillary
56% votes with post graduate education–Obama
I think that explains counties like Santa Barbara and Marin.
hillary and mccain got their collective asses handed to them in colorado tonight.
obama beat hillary 2:1 and mitt trounced st. john 3:1. at my caucus, obama got about 75% of the vote, over hillary, no one else made the threshold.
attendance was off the charts. talking to one of the precinct captains and he said they estimated they’d get about 3 times as many as last time, but they had to be off by at least 50%. there were 8 precincts and about 400-500 people trying to squeeze into a small elementary school…parking was a nightmare, and probably the best adjective to describe it would be chaotic.
we really need to go to formal primaries again, but it was cool to see that many people show up.
for those interested, the NYT has a really good interactive Politics page here, that will give you county by county breakdowns of the states in play today.
that’s all l’ve got, and l’m beat…g’night all.
lTMF’sA
I’m beginning to think we were at the same elementary school in the same precinct! Did your group meet in the library?
(Wasn’t it awesome?)
mine was in west boulder, and people were everywhere, hallways, classrooms, library, etc. huge crowd.
this from the local birdcage liner this am:
personally, l don’t care much for caucuses, l think they are, by their nature, exclusionary…think how many more people could/would have participated if it had been a real primary…gives one pause, eh.
lTMF’sA
Our rural Colorado precinct and county went 67% for Obama.
There’s some number cruncing and wonderful insight going on over there.
.
throughout the night (CET) by following CNN – BBC – Sky News – CNBC broadcasts by satellite reception. Always enjoy the exit poll analysis of voter motivation. I do find the results in the Mid-West surprising. A strong performance by Barack Obama. A disappointment of the California electorate, I thought they would be more evenly divided between Clinton and Obama. The Hispanic vote (30%) went 2:1 for Clinton, which means a 10% advantage for Hillary in the final result. With the spread of coming primaries, this could give Obama the edge going into the convention. The party super delegates may decide in the end … how democratic!
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."
The NYT had clinton ahead by about 80 delegates as of 8:00 AM. I think they’re still counting.
If you mean in the “he came really close and now he has to win the spin war” sense, well then he probably did win.
Obama Campaign Manager David Plouffe…
Except maybe the two-headed Clinton/Obama candidate.
It was a draw.
Clinton did not steamroller Obama and Obama did not baraka Clinton.
This is a tie ballgame going into the middle/late innings. She’ll score a few runs before the convention and so will he. Short of some scandalous news or the unlikely event that one or the other campaign or campaigner will commit a career-ending gaffe they will enter the convention in a virtual tie, and in a convention the conventional always has the advantage. That’s why they call them conventions, isn’t it?
So…Clinton wins because of her institutional advantages. If she is at ALL politically intelligent (And baby, bet on it. She is.) she will see that the numbers do not give her a lock on a race with McCain unless she somehow convinces Obama to run with her and thus give her the aid of his appeal to the young, the uncommitted and the huge black vote that will turn out to support him. She makes him some promises and he says yes.
And they win in a landslide.
My own take on the probablity of this happening?
3 to 2 against.
Against that eventuality?
I fear that:
1-She will not have the courage to pull that particular trigger due to a fear that he will somehow outshine her.
And/or
2-By the time that they have gotten that far the Clinton campaign will have used so many Rovian tactics against Obama that he will tell her to go fuck herself if she does approach him.
For it?
1-It’s a lock to win.
and
2-Obama is a very practical politician (As is Ms. Clinton) AND vastly ambitious.
Can’t wait until the conventions, myself.
Can’t WAIT!!!
May you be born(e) into interesting campaigns.
Later…
AG
Did you read my comment above? This is huge. I came into last night fully expecting that Clinton would win more states that Obama. Hey,they expected it or they wouldn’t keep mentioning Michigan and Florida (where she broke her word) as wins for Clintonism. Screw those polls showing him up 3% here, down 3% there. The MoE on those polls were huge (+/- 3% – 5%) with undecideds ranging from $12% – 16% of the vote. I’ve been burned too often to look at thsoe numbers and think they look good for whatever candidate I’m rooting for.
For someone to come “out of nowhere” with a 20 point deficit 2.5 months ago, and beat The Clinton’s is HUGE. This is fact. Clinton had to fight where didn’t expect. She spent money is places that should have been a cakewalk. Her campaign knows it. She got 8 states last night. He got 14. You want to talk electability? Obama swept this nation. She got A few of the coastal states, AR and AZ. She was expected to carry AR. If she has lost that, it would have been a huge story.
She is in a fight.
I just think that she is going to win that fight.
On position…not necessarily on abiility.
If she does lose…and you can construe this as both ageist and sexist if you so desire, although I feel the same way about McCain…if she does lose to Obama it will be because she lacks both the physical endurance and the emotional balance to deal with the rigors of an extended campaign.
She is a tough, committed 60-year old woman.
He is a tough, committed 46 year-old man.
You do the math.
If this were a long distance foot race, on whom would YOU bet?
To tell you the truth, it is a much more grueling test than is a mere marathon race.
We shall see…
Later…
AG
We’re old enough to remember the 1968 Chicago convention. Not trying to suggest the Denver convention will be violent, but we seem doomed to choices in smoke-filled rooms–either ahead of the primaries or afterwards at the convention. I find the whole super delegate thing very disturbing.
Arthur, have you looked at the primary schedule? When is ever going to win another state? She has to win states to have any case to be the nominee. She has a chance in Virginia, but I bet she loses. Ohio could be good for her, maybe. Perhaps she can win in Texas. But things look pretty grim. If she puts all her chips in Wisconsin (which I think she has to) she’s going to need an upset there. You throw this analysis out from the hip, but you don’t do the ‘hard work’ to figure out what is going on. And believe me it is hard work to get a grasp on this stuff.
Why?
Because it works.
I called Edwards from the get-go. While you were still wandering around thinking that he had a shot.
I also called…and continue to call…a tie at the convention and a Clinton/Obama deal being made.
As I said…I believe that there is about 2 to 3 chance of that happening.
There is a MARGINAL chance that either will go into the convention a sure thing.
There is some sort of chance that an anti-Clinton coalition…which would have to include the Kennedy/Kerry/Gore brigade and Edwards as well…might succeed in denying her the nomination. But that’s a lot of hustlers to stuff into one bag. Plus…imagine the number of promises that Obama would have to make in order to assemble and maintain that sort of support. I don’t think that it will happen, and if it DOES happen I doubt its practical effectiveness. Too many generals directing too many essentially unconnected troops while the Clinton/DNC thing is fairly monolithic.
Run DNC.
DemocRatic rap.
Just as it has always been.
Mostly.
Watch.
AG
Obama’s half-Kenyan, and I’m pretty sure that half is Kalenjin. His dad was from Eldoret. He could smoke most of the people in the country in a distance race on genetics alone. Not that that matters.
It matters in a campaign.
And it matters in a President as well.
Endurance.
Can you imagine what kinds of constant pressures are brought to bear on a President? I consider myself a fairly strong individual, and I seriously doubt that I could handle it.
Yup.
Endurance.
Vince Lombardi said “Fatigue makes cowards of us all.”
Fools, too.
JUST what we need in the White House.
A tired, stupid coward.
Let us pray.
AG
It was more than a little irritating to see CNN keep posting the map of Clinton’s “victories” that inlcuded Michigan and Florida. Take those out and it looks a lot different.
I mentioned that last night. And she keeps mentioning them too. I say, if she wants to mention MI and FL I’m cool with that. That means that I can mention how she went back on her word twice in the campaign.
It annoyed the crap out of me that they listed the states as hers on the map.
I live in Michigan, and while words cannot express my disappointment at not having a real primary, I have to give Hillary a pass on mentioning the two. I harbor no illusions that she is doing it for any other reason than to make herself sound more successful this primary season, but at the same time it is nice not to be completely forgotten. Florida and Michigan will be very important states in the general election and could swing either way, so efforts not to completely disenfranchise us are still appreciated.
Living here just outside of San Francisco, I will be interested to see how the voting breaks down after all the votes are counted. For most Cali elections there is a huge initial difference between candidates, either because initially a large chunk of already-counted absentee votes are thrown into the mix or that because the first votes counted are an L.A. precinct or two. This morning things were a lot closer. The headlines from last night may not be as thunderous as all the votes are counted.
I think Missouri was lost to the Clintons when Bill showed up in KC and had about 2,000 people show-up. A week later Obama comes to KC and he has 2,000 people in the Streets who couldn’t get into the auditorium because is was filled to capacity.
AP delegate totals which includes projections:
Clinton: 845
Obama: 765
McCain: 613
Romney: 269
Huckabee: 190
I’m assuming the Clinton campaign has pushed the need to to count those. I can’t remember the media adding unpledged superdelegates to their counts before, so this is funny to me. Keep in mind that the only media outlets who seem to be including them is AP and CNN, but without those unpledged superdelegates, no matter who’s doing the counting Clinton is down 9 or 10 delegates.
So why do I feel a little like Kevin Drum
Did I wake up yesterday with unreasonable expectations?
I just don’t know. I think I have to ponder on this a little bit.
To my mind, Obama didn’t need to win the liberal states to show he’s a viable candidate, he needed to win the midwest and south and he did. Clinton can’t carry those states. Obama won Idaho and North Dakota…those are states that I would have expected Clinton to win by 81%.
You know how the Clinton compaign has spent the last month saying that only the intellectual elite like Obama? Winning those states puts that down as yet another Clinton lie. They tried to ghettoized the Senator, even after Iowa, but winning those states puts that down as yet another Clinton lie. They said that Latinos are racists and wouldn’t vote for a black man. Obama was expected to get, what? 28% of the Latino vote. That was the Clinton campaign’s numbers. He got almost 40% of the Latino vote. 37% – 38% in some states. That’s huge.
I think alot of us had high hopes that Obama would have landslide wins in Clinton territory. Some very inaccurate polls led us to believe this could happen. But at least in my own case, I had pretty conservative expectations of Obama’s results. He exceeded those expectations by pulling in many of the states that no one knew where they would go and by winning with larger than expected margins in others. And in the big states where he couldn’t do enough campaigning in time, he did about as expected.