When we talk about the electability of the presidential candidates, we should also think about their effect on the electability of other Democrats that will be sharing a ticket with them in November. In this analysis, I look at the 23 senate races for seats currently held by Republicans.
I list the 23 races in order (from the likeliest to go Democratic, to the least). I list who won the Democratic primary or caucus, and by what margin. And I list the margin that the Republican won their election in 2002 (in two cases, the most recent election was in 2006).
Then I offer analysis for whether an Obama or Clinton ticket would be more helpful to the candidate.
1. Virginia (OPEN SEAT- John Warner)
Challenger: Mark Warner
Primary winner: Barack Obama
Margin: Obama +29%
2002 Margin: GOP ran unopposed
Analysis: Former Governor Mark Warner doesn’t need any help from the top of the ticket to be able to win this seat comfortably, but there can’t be much debate that Obama runs stronger here than Clinton. Exit polls indicate that Obama won the white male vote here, as well as women overall. With Obama and Warner on the ticket this state could not only vote blue in November, it could sweep in a couple of new House seats (e.g., VA-02 and VA-11).
2. New Hampshire (John Sununu)
Challenger: Jeanne Shaheen
Primary winner: Hillary Clinton (Barack Obama split the delegates here 9-9)
Margin: Clinton +3%
2002 Margin: GOP +4%
Analysis: Clinton eked out a surprise upset win here (although they technically split the delegates) and it’s possible that Clinton and Shaheen at the top of the ticket could help galvanize a big turnout among woman that could also help Carol Shea-Porter win reelection to her House seat. On the other hand, the New Hampshire GOP is demoralized and in retreat. Perhaps nothing could reenergize them more than the prospect of another Clinton presidency.
3. New Mexico (OPEN SEAT- Pete Domenici)
Challenger: Tom Udall
Caucus winner: Hillary Clinton
Margin: Clinton +1%
2002 Margin: GOP +30
Analysis: The retirement of Sen. Pete Domenici puts this seat in play. Recent polls show Tom Udall beating Heather Wilson 58%-30% and Steve Pearce 53%-31%. The caucus here was split nearly 50-50 between Obama and Clinton, so there is no obvious advantage in coattails from either one of them.
4. Minnesota (Norm Coleman)
Challenger: Al Franken
Caucus winner: Barack Obama
Margin: Obama +34%
2002 Margin: GOP +3
Analysis: Al Franken is now the heavy favorite to become the DFL nominee here. A recent poll shows Franken trailing Coleman by a single percentage point. Obviously, coattails could be critical in this race. Obama’s 34% caucus margin over Clinton is as clear as day. An Obama ticket could be just the thing to put Franken over the top.
5. Colorado (OPEN SEAT- Wayne Allard)
Challenger: Mark Udall
Caucus winner: Barack Obama
Margin: Obama +35%
2002 Margin: GOP +5
Analysis: Udall is widely seen as a modest favorite in this race to replace the retiring Wayne Allard, but a recent Rasmussen poll had him trailing 43%-44% to former Rep. Bob Schaffer. Another recent poll showed John McCain clobbering Hillary Clinton in Colorado by a 14% margin while losing to Obama by a 7% margin. Obama’s 35% advantage in the Colorado caucuses is quite convincing. Clinton could easily cost Udall the election, while Obama might provide enough of a boost to put him over the top.
6. Oregon (Gordon Smith)
Challenger: Jeff Merkley
Primary winner: May 20th
Margin:
2002 Margin: GOP +4%
Analysis: The Oregon primary will not be held for three months. Obama is considered the favorite to win, but we’ll have to wait for the results to be sure. State Speaker of the House, Jeff Merkley, is favored to win the nomination over political activist Steve Novick. Oregon is a purplish/blue state where the Democrats should be strongly favored in November, regardless of the nominee.
7. Maine (Susan Collins)
Challenger: Tom Allen
Caucus winner: Barack Obama
Margin: Obama +19%
2002 Margin: GOP +18
Analysis: Obama’s stonger than expected performance here might be chalked up to the caucus format, but there’s no ignoring his 19% margin. Maine has a history of electing women to positions of power, but any coattail argument has to favor Obama based on the available data.
8. Alaska (Ted Stevens)
Challenger: Mark Begich
Caucus winner: Barack Obama
Margin: Obama +49%
2002 Margin: GOP +69
Analysis: Ordinarily, the Dems would have no chance to win Alaska in either the senate or presidential races, but recent scandals in the Alaska GOP have been so profound that anything is possible this year. Sen. Stevens is not only in his mid-80’s, he is under a FBI investigation. Popular Anchorage mayor Mark Begich has not yet formally announced his candidacy, but he is widely expected to run. Obama’s 49% advantage in the caucuses is plenty of evidence that anti-Clinton feeling stills runs strong in the 49th state. Winning Alaska’s three electoral votes is probably out of Obama’s reach, but keeping it close could help Begich take over this senate seat.
9. North Carolina (Elizabeth Dole)
Challenger(s): Kay Hagan or Jim Neal
Primary winner: May 6th
Margin:
2002 Margin: GOP +9%
Analysis: There is a very competitive primary race here between Kay Hagan, who supports telecom immunity, and Jim Neal, who would if elected be the first openly gay senator. A recent poll shows Obama leading Clinton here by a 50%-40% margin. North Carolina, like Virginia, may be trending blue, if more slowly. Sen. Dole’s approval ratings have been trending up but remain unformidable. She is beatable with the right combination of candidates at the top of the ticket.
10. Nebraska (OPEN SEAT- Chuck Hagel)
Challenger: Tony Raimando
Caucus winner: Barack Obama
Margin: Obama +34%
2002 Margin: GOP +69
Analysis: I am still holding out hope that Scott Kleeb will enter this race. Currently, only former Republican (and failed Bush nominee for ‘manufacturing czar’) Raimando is the only Dem candidate. Raimando is good friends with Sen. Ben Nelson and would fit into the same mold as Nelson if elected. Obama was endorsed by Sen. Nelson and Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey, and he clobbered Clinton in the caucuses here. There’s not much question that an Obama candidacy would do less damage than a Clinton campaign for downticket races.
11. Texas (John Cornyn)
Challenger: Rick Noriega
Primary/Caucus winner: March 4th
Margin:
2002 Margin: GOP +12
Analysis: Noriega is the favorite to win the Texas nomination. It remains to be seen whether Obama or Clinton is stronger in Texas among Democrats, or whether Obama can do well with the Hispanic population here. Anti-Clinton feeling is pretty high in Texas though, and it hard to envision her doing well in the general election in the Lone Star State. John Cornyn’s approval ratings are among the lowest in the Senate and he could be vulnerable to the right opponent.
12. Oklahoma (James Inhofe)
Challenger: Andrew Rice
Primary Winner: Hillary Clinton
Margin: Clinton +24%
2002 Margin: GOP +30%
Analysis: Obama got clobbered here. There is no evidence to support his having better coattails in Oklahoma. The only available evidence suggests that Clinton would have better coattails here, although I doubt any candidate would agree to appear with her on the campaign. Obama? I could easily see him campaigning with Andrew Rice against Jim Inhofe. What do you think?
13. Idaho (OPEN SEAT- Larry Craig)
Challenger: Larry LaRocco
Caucus winner: Barack Obama
Margin: Obama +63%
2002 Margin: GOP +32
Analysis: Larry Craig’s ‘wide stance’ has opened up this seat for a potential Dem takeover. Former Rep. Larry LaRocco is running a vigorous campaign, while the Republicans are reeling as they head for a crowded and bruising primary. Obama’s ability to draw a crowd of 12,000 to Boise stunned local Democrats, as did his 15-3 advantage in delegates won in the caucuses. Idaho’s four electoral votes are probably out of reach in the presidential contest, but if Obama can keep it close he might help put LaRocco over the top.
14. Kentucky (Mitch McConnell)
Challenger(s): Greg Fischer or Bruce Lunsford
Primary winner: May 20th
Margin:
2002 Margin: GOP +28
Analysis: Progressives are still reeling for Andrew Horne’s decision not to run in this contest. Bruce Lunsford is a strictly DLC candidate, while Fischer is famous for inventing the ice/soda dispenser. The primary here is still three months off, but Kentucky (like Tennessee) appears to be one of Obama’s weakest states. It’s quite possible that Hillary Clinton would perform better here in the general election. Regardless, recruitment failures in Kentucky have greatly weakened the Democrats chances of taking over this seat, and if Lunsford wins the nomination it will dissolve all progressive enthusiasm for the race.
15. Mississippi (Roger Wicker/Trent Lott)
Challenger: Ronnie Musgrove
Primary winner: March 10th
Margin:
2006 Margin: GOP +29%
Analysis: With Trent Lott’s unexpected retirement, this election became necessary to select someone to serve out the remaining four years of his term. Gov. Barbour appointed Rep. Roger Wicker to the seat until November. Former Governor Ronnie Musgrove is a DINO on steroids, but these are the types of seats (and candidates) we can expect to see showing up in a truly realigned political landscape. Mississippi doesn’t hold its primary until March 10th, but Obama is heavily favored to win. In the general election, heavier than usual black turnout could help put Musgrove over the top…or it could serve to further alienate the white vote against the Democrats.
16. Alabama (Jeff Sessions)
Challenger: Vivian Figures
Primary winner: Barack Obama
Margin: Obama +14%
2002 Margin: GOP +19
Analysis: We are now in the land of the extreme longshots. State Sen. Vivian Figures is an African-American woman from Mobile. There’s no question that Obama’s presence on the ballot will boost her chances, but it’s very hard to see how Sen. Sessions can be beat considering his 19% margin in 2002 and his high approval ratings.
17. Kansas (Pat Roberts)
Challenger: Lee Jones
Primary winner: Barack Obama
Margin: Obama +49%
2002 Margin: GOP ran unopposed
Analysis: Greg Orman dropped out this race yesterday, leaving the Dems without a well financed opponent. This is truly a shame because Obama has strengths in Kansas (his mother grew up there and look at that 49% caucus margin) and is quite likely to seriously consider Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius as his running mate. An Obama/Sebelius ticket would be at least competitive in Kansas and could help a strong senate challenger to oust Sen. Roberts. Alas, it is looking unlikely that we’ll field a serious opponent.
18. Tennessee (Lamar Alexander)
Challenger: Chris Lugo
Primary Winner: Hillary Clinton
Margin: Clinton +13%
2002 Margin: GOP +10%
Analysis: Clinton cleaned Obama’s clock in the Volunteer State. The Democrats have suffered a total recruitment failure in Tennessee (Chris Lugo is not a serious challenger). Unless Bob Tuke gets back in this race, it looks hopeless for the Dems. Meanwhile, Sen. Alexander seems poised to emerge from the 2008 elections with much improved seniority and as a possible Minority Leader. If he is not taken out this year, he will probably hold this seat for life.
19. Georgia (Saxby Chambliss)
Challenger(s): several, none strong.
Primary winner: Barack Obama
Margin: Obama +35%
2002 Margin: GOP +7
Analysis: the Dems have a cast of lousy or poorly financed challengers here. Chambliss isn’t particularly strong, although Georgia seems to be the only state in the union that is actually trending to the Republicans. For Democrats to win statewide here they need massive black turnout, which Obama would certainly provide.
20. South Carolina (Lindsey Graham)
Challenger: none
Primary winner: Barack Obama
Margin: Obama +28%
2002 Margin: GOP +10%
Analysis: More Democrats came out to vote in the primaries than Republicans. The Dems are showing remarkable strength even in states as blood red as South Carolina. However, no Democratic candidate has emerged to take on Sen. Graham.
21. Mississippi (Thad Cochran)
Challenger: Erik Fleming
Primary winner: March 10th
Margin:
2002 Margin: GOP ran unopposed
Analysis: there was some hope that Cochran would retire. He will hold this seat as long as wants it. His position as Ranking Member on the Appropriations Committee assures that he will never be voted out, short of some truly horrendous scandal.
22. Wyoming (Mike Barrasso)
Challenger: none
Caucus winner: March 8th
Margin:
2006 Margin: GOP +40%
Analysis: Sen. Barrasso is serving on an interim basis as a replacement for the deceased Sen. Craig Thomas. This election is for the remaining four years of Sen. Thomas’ term. The Dems can compete here. Gary Trauner is polling very well in his race for the Wyoming At-Large House seat, which is obviously a state-wide seat. And the governor of Wyoming is a Democrat. But there are no announced candidates yet to take on Barrasso. Obama is favored to win the caucus here on March 8th.
23. Wyoming (Mike Enzi)
Challenger: none
Caucus winner: March 8th
Margin:
2002 Margin: GOP +47%
Analysis: Sen. Enzi wins the award for the safest U.S. Senator. In part this is because no one knows who he is (he’s made no enemies). In part this is just because Wyoming is a very Republican state and this is a presidential election year. Regardless, no Democrat has emerged to challenge him.
I hope I have made the case that Obama has much better potential to give us the maximum number of senate seats.
Also available in orange.
Good job, Booman. It’s noticeable that when Obama wins, he wins by so much more than Clinton. Really astonishing. Yeah, if I were running, I know whose coattails I’d want to be following!
there goes the red states don’t count argument.
BTW, CNN poll has it tied in Texas.
Texas poll shows dead heat among Dems
Clinton 50% Obama 48%
there goes the firewall.
It is a shame that Horne couldn’t get some DSCC support or backing from the Gov here in KY. He was well differentiated from McConnell.
At the end of the day, the party establishment went for a two-time loser for Gov in Lunsford who’s wealthy enough to self-fund. This will hand McConnell an easy re-election. Guess the party elite are keeping their powder dry for 2010 when Bunning comes up again.
As for Obama, I believe that he’ll actually do a bit better here, should he be the nominee.
gordon smith faces two potential challengers, the one you overlooked is steve novick, who is running a solidly progressive populist, no fear, outsider campaign. website here: http://votehook.com/
oops, my bad. you did not overlook steve novick, you just made the erroneous claim that jeff merkeley is favored to win the primary. in the minimal the polling that has been done on the race, novick has been tied with or ahead of merkley (well, statistically tied, but in front), and is polling better against smith than merkley is.
SUSA general election poll
45% Smith (R)
39% Novick (D)
16% Undecided
48% Smith (R)
39% Merkley (D)
13% Undecided
Riley Oregon Likely Voter Poll.
Novick 12%
Merkley 9%
Undecided 73%
Yesterday’s Rasmussen continues to show Merkley nominally behind Novick. Another poll from December had him BEHIND the 3rd party candidate in a general trial. You have to wonder why he continues to be considered the favorite, when he has yet to poll ahead of ANYONE running against him.
That’s a helluva bandwagon going on there. It’s been so long I haven’t been sure Dems would recognize good momentum and a party if it ran over them. Still not sure some of the candidates could or would.
Had the thought that certainly for all his work and insiderness Tom Daschle would make a striking VP candidate for Obama.
A proven loser and ineffective leader who placated the GOP while in the Senate? Plus, he’s too much of an insider; his presence on the ticket would undermine Obama’s message of change. I honestly don’t see what he could possibly bring to the ticket. Obama needs to pick someone who reinforces his message, and who can help galvanize the public. As far as I can see it, Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer is the only one who really fits that mold. He has just the right contrasts with Obama– white, Catholic, from a rural state, made his name in agri-business, not law– while also possessing the right similarities– mainly, the ability to get average, apolitical citizens enthusiastic about the political process, and about the Democratic Party. Furthermore, Schweitzer is no DINO. He is pro-choice, and is very pro-environment (and phrases it in a way that appeals to the hunters and fishermen of the Mountain West, such that they don’t automatically think of “crazy hippie tree-huggers,” so to speak).
Schweitzer’s appeal would go beyond mere electoral votes (since Montana doesn’t have that many). He’d be able to get voters excited in the Mountain West, as well as in many other parts of the country where voters are suffering economically and are looking for a leader with whom they can identify and trust. Psychologically, people want to see something of themselves reflected in their elected officials. To voters such as these, in the outlying areas of some purplish/swing states (Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado,) they could definitely see a reflection of themselves in Brian Schweitzer. That is highly doubtful with Tom Daschle.
Obama/Schweitzer ’08– Unstoppable!
agree re: daschle.
my 2¢ as a denizen of the mtn west:
schweitzer’s an unknown quantity. however, he could be very effective in bringing the mountain west and nra/libertarian types into the fold.
imo, if the goal is truly multi-cultural, creating a new vision and hope for america, l think bill richardson would be an ideal choice. he would be a tremendous asset. solid credentials in foreign policy/negotiations, chief executive experience, viv-a-vis governorship…a major weakness of obama, imo…and would bring the latin@’s into the equation in a big way.
prior to edwards suspending his campaign, l was hoping for an edwards/richardson ticket.
it could work, big time.
. . . but, he proved to be a gaffe machine on the stump! I was a hard-core Richardson supporter back before this whole campaign started (I even put a Richardson sticker on my Hillary-supporting mother’s car when I visited her at some point during 2005, and it took her several weeks to realize it was there,) but then he kept putting his foot in his mouth and making a complete arse of himself in his public appearances.
So, I agree that he has the perfect resume. But his public demeanor proved to be a liability. Plus, there are perpetual rumors that he has a womanizing habit. I personally couldn’t care less as to whether the rumors are true– that only concerns Richardson and his wife, since it has nothing to do with his ability to govern– but, unfortunately, most Americans do not share my view on staying out of other people’s private business. If there’s smoke, with or without fire, it will be a liability on the campaign trail. In short, while I share your view that Richardson would add a tremendous amount of good to Obama’s ticket, he could also add a ton of unnecessary baggage.
As for Schweitzer not being well known . . . remember, most Americans don’t pay attention to politics the way we blog-nerds do. So, anyone short of, say, Al Gore will be someone who most people haven’t heard of. Having an established name is far less important than having a galvanizing personality. And Schweitzer has that, far more than anybody else who could possibly be on the shortlist. Frankly, Schweitzer’s ability to attract new voters to the party and get them revved up is the second-best of any Democrat out there right now . . . second only to Barack Obama himself. And that’s why I have the audacity to hope for an Obama/Schweitzer ticket.
Indeed, Richardson’s performance on the hustings confirm that he would be most valuable as an Obama Administration appointee. Sectary of Energy, perhaps?
As long as we’re talking VP nominees, I’d throw out Jim Webb, D-VA/KickAss Vet. His military experience would shore up Obama’s weakness. His macho persona and authenticity would play well in the south and west.
Political considerations would point to a Hispanic, and/or someone who could bring one of the following states: Ohio, Florida or the West. I once saw Janet Neapolitano (AZ gov) suggested but not sure how effective at political knife fighting she’d be.
. . . would be great, except for the fact that she is unmarried, and, furthermore, does not have the most feminine presentation. Again, that’s something that I personally couldn’t care less about, but this homophobic country we live in would never elect someone whose orientation leaves the slightest room for interpretation.
As far as Webb is concerned . . . I’m sure he’s on the shortlist. My worry about him, though, is that he can be a little too unhinged. Furthermore, comments he made early in his career against women serving in combat may be used against him by the GOP, to suppress turnout by women voters, a key component in any Democratic victory.
My biggest worry about Webb, though, is that right now, the state of Virginia is in a delicate stage of its development from red to blue. Even though Gov. Kaine would name a Democratic replacement to Webb’s seat, there is no guarantee that that individual would be able to hold onto the seat after a special election (hell, it’s going to be tough enough for Webb himself to keep his seat– remember, for all the buzz about him, he barely won). And, behind the scenes, the loathsome, rapacious George Allen has been plotting his comeback. The last thing we want is Allen back in a position of power . . . because, I guarantee you this, he will use it as a springboard to the presidency. And he would be worse than Bush. So, I say, keep Webb in the senate, hold onto that seat, and let Virginia continue on its natural course as it trends in our direction!
do you think all the Dems running will hold their seats? or is there a long analysis of that coming later?
yes, except maybe Landrieu.
excellent breakdown boo…just a couple comments:
l think tom udall [nm] may have a tougher time of it than expected, given the GE history there, regardless of the nominee on the d side. it’s not unlikely that nm will again swing r in the general, especially if the issue of disenfranchisement is not resolved. perhaps kahli, or thefatlady, could weigh in on that.
in colo, clinton will cost mark udall the election, imo. that rasmussen poll was a bit of a surprise as the odds makers have been giving MU a much stronger position.
coloradopols is still posting these lines:
udall 3:1
schaffer 7:1
l don’t believe it.
a friend of mine posited, and l can’t disagree, that schaffer…who’s been surprisingly quiet, and behind in fundraising…is holding fire until the d nominee is decided, and that he expects to benefit from the 527’s that are, and will be, springing up, especially if clinton prevails. imo, he’s a bit of a wacko, but it’s not unlikely dobson – fof will get behind him.
lastly, it’s the opinion of a lot of people l know in kansas that sebelius isn’t ready for prime time, and they are not enthusiastic…an understatement…about the rumors of her as a vp candidate. according to them, she’s not as strong throughout the state as is generally accepted, and her performance in the rebuttal to the SOTU was cringe inducing.
. . . regarding Sebelius. Her response to the SOTU made me literally groan. I actually think that it strengthened Hillary among women– Sebelius was so awful, it was as if Hillary could imply, “See? If you want to see a woman president in your lifetime, I’m the only viable option! Look what else is out there!” So, yes, if I were Obama, I would definitely cross Sebelius off my shortlist.
Thank you for taking the time to do this analysis. I’m going to print it out and take a look come November. Just to see how it all pans out.
Good stuff BooMan. I made a cheap and dirty spreadsheet with some of these numbers on Google Documents if you want to check it out. If you want I’ll add your ability to edit the open document.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=peJ4uXVossIkum3dAF20CWw&hl=en
…why Max Cleland isn’t running for his old seat this year? It’s not as if Chambliss has been all that popular a figure, and it’s well-known beyond the progressive world how disgraceful his winning campaign of 6 years ago was. I’ve wondered off and on if Cleland would run again, but never heard a peep about it anywhere.
Cleland had an emotional/mental meltdown after his defeat. Georgians like their pols to be macho. The Georgia GOP would rip him to shreds.