We’re staring at the abyss folks, and today’s unemployment figures are dismal.
The U.S. lost jobs in May for a fifth month and the unemployment rate rose by the most in more than two decades, signaling that the world’s largest economy is stalling.
Payrolls fell by 49,000 after a 28,000 drop in April, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The jobless rate increased by half a point to 5.5 percent, higher than every forecast in a Bloomberg News survey, as an influx of teenagers into the workforce exceeded jobs available.
Employers are cutting back to protect profits as raw- material costs soar and sales slow. A weaker job market is another blow to Americans hit by falling home values, scarcer credit and higher fuel bills, adding to the risk that the longest consumer-spending expansion on record will come to an end.
“The labor market is still deteriorating,” said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at Global Insight Inc. in Lexington, Massachusetts. “The story is, we’re still on the verge of a recession” and “at best, the economy is growing very, very slowly.”
The verge isn’t recession, it’s disaster. Even the Labor Department’s meta-massaged numbers can’t hide the largest monthly jump in unemployment in 22 years. With real wages in the crapper and inflation grinding things to a halt, as I have warned before on several occasions, the inflationary pressures of oil and food will lead to a deflationary spiral of job loss and disaster as home prices continue to plummet and personal debt mounts.
We’re seeing now the strongest evidence yet that this is now beginning to be the case. A .5% jump in the unemployment rate that the numbers are actually showing means the real jump in the rate is much worse. Traditional summer jobs for high schoolers aren’t there this year. Retail and waiter/waitress jobs, the standard summer job fare, aren’t being created. There’s not a summer job bump because people are cutting back.
And because of that, jobs are being lost. Businesses don’t need the extra help this summer. Teenagers, with their disposable income, don’t have that income now. They won’t buy things at the mall. As a result, retail stores and chain dining places will need less help…and cut jobs.
It’s a vicious negative feedback loop, and we’re seeing evidence now that we’re trapped in it and will be for some time now.
The parent companies of casual dining chains like Bennigan’s and Steak and Ale are scrambling to avoid bankruptcy with food and gas costs being so high. The days of Applebee’s, Olive Garden, Outback Steakhouse and Chili’s all on one corner are coming to an abrupt end as these restaurants are going under at an alarming rate.
When’s the last time you went to one of these restaurants? I know I’ve cut back on my favorite eating spots myself to save money. (Buffalo Wild Wings and Romano’s Macaroni Grill, for the record.)
LOS ANGELES, June 4 (Reuters) – Metromedia Restaurant Group on Wednesday said it is working on a debt restructuring plan, a move that could help the operator of struggling chains like Bennigan’s and Steak and Ale avert a potential bankruptcy.
The announcement came on the heels of a Wall Street Journal report that the unit of billionaire John Kluge’s privately held Metromedia Co was in talks with GE Capital Solutions and that the restaurant owner had prepared a bankruptcy filing in the event it was needed.
“Metromedia Restaurant Group is currently in the process of formulating a proposal to present to its lenders to restructure its indebtedness,” the company said in a statement, which underscored that the company “has neither filed for bankruptcy nor prepared a bankruptcy filing.”
The Journal report cited three people familiar with the matter and said the restaurant group had violated several terms of its lending agreement earlier this year, prompting GE Capital to declare a default and accelerate payments.
Americans buy stuff. Right now, that stuff isn’t being bought. It’s being spent on gas and groceries instead. People aren’t buying Bloomin’ Onions at Outback. They’re going to the grocery store and buying SPAM.
Americans apparently are eating Spam much more lately as food prices go up, up, up along with the cost of fuel and about everything else we’re buying these days.
Hormel Foods Corp., maker of Spam, reported last week that its Spam sales were up 10.6 percent in the 12 weeks ending May 3, when compared to a year ago. The Associated Press also reported that consumers may be adding Spam to their family meal lineup to add some variety and stave off boredom with at-home meals while forgoing restaurant dining to save money.
With a lighter version of Spam and even single slices in foil packaging available, the canned meat offers a cheaper alternative to more expensive meats, even though the cost of a can of Spam has risen as well — about 7 percent in the past year, to about $2.60 cents for a 12-ounce can.
We’re down to SPAM and gubment cheese, folks. Things are tough all over. Jobs will continue to vanish. The economy will continue to spiral down into Hell. Demand is dropping precipitously across the board, and as more jobs are lost, more demand is lost, and more debt is accumulated, something will give. Things are bad, truly bad, now.
They’re going to get much worse.
Be prepared.
A .5% jump in the unemployment rate that the numbers are actually showing means the real jump in the rate is much worse.
that was sanitized using the CES birth-death model
but truth is leaking
and the Feds have burned $450 billion of their credit facility. But we can always print more money – we’ll have to – rushing to catch up with Mugabe’s hyperinflation land. How’s a $100 Billion minimum wage sound?
And if you go to the grocery store these days, you have to wonder whether what you’re needing will be in stock. If oil and fuel costs keep at their current levels or keep going up, the “just in time” model that merchants use starts to fall apart.
You mean merchants might have to actually understand the long-term needs and consumption patterns of their customers? That they might need some awareness of their market? Something more than an MBA and a cookie-cutter plan from head office?
Inconceivable! How could such a business function?
Oh yeah. Really well. Huh.
before the JIT model, they held inventory.
Heading for the Great Depression without consumers having any reserves(Savings). $160 oil before the end of summer as the US$ goes kaboom. Friday’s spike was held in check by limit up.
oil gushed today, rising $10.75 [+8.4%]. as bloomberg reminded us
and it’s not supply issues, it’s the risk premium and that’s being fueled by statements such as this:
st. john’s bestest friends.
have a nice weekend…
Mofaz is confirming former foreign Minister of Germany , Joschka Fischer’s article in the Daily Star, Lebanon June 2 that Israel will attack Iran before end of Bush term and that Israel received the green light during Bush’s recent visit
and after the complacency on Wall Street, oil rising out of fear with the fundies speculating and banking – rumors WaMu, Lehman in trouble.
DOW down over 400 points even with the PPT doing their gig.
Severe recession setting up. Food insecurity for many. We’ve been screwed Again.
things are indeed bad, and the housing and credit crisis’ aside, the driver that really is going to pound us into the ground is energy.
l don’t think the spike in oil prices is an anomaly, certainly not with the projections of $150 bbl by july, and $200 bbl by years end. many things l’ve read lately are pointing to a level of fear, not just of an expanded war(s) in the ME, but a fear based on an uncertainty about just how high it can go.
l went back and re-read this article at motley fool, Think Oil’s a Bubble? Think Again.:
factor in that the fact that existing wells are drying up, and you can see where this is going.
chimpy’s solution
that’s worked so well, eh. the government doesn’t have a clue what to do, they’re just hoping the great fall happens on 09…you’re right, we’re screwed…again.
fundamentals maybe. Feds in a fix between a rock and a hard place.
oil pricing over the last 2 days says oil is frothy – up $15. demand for oil is dropping at over $4 gallon. Who will afford $165 per week for gas?
The Collapse of the Middle Class – by Senator Bernie Sanders on emails he has received.
BTW, Senator Sanders will counter Joe Lieberman by campaigning across the country for Obama.
Indeed. I have have said and have been saying:
Be prepared.
Oil is off its hinges.
Analysts are talking $150 by the end of the year before. Today they were talking $150 by July 4th. $150 oil would roughly be $5.00 a gallon gas.
But the real story here is the dollar. It was on the verge of a mild rebound after the Fed hinted that it wasn’t going to raise rates. That hope just died today. The dollar is going to now continue to plummet.
The system is breaking down. Like temperature spikes in an ICU patient, we’re seeing signs of rapid swings both positive and negative that indicate that the rules of logic no longer apply. There’s no longer boundaries that keep the system in check. Push the boundary too far and it snaps.
Systemic failure is coming. America can’t survive $7-8 gasoline and $8-$10 diesel in the space of two years. The markets are scared out of their mind right now. They are waiting for the sign. Today was a mild preview of the main event.
Uncle Sam just noticed that shooting pain in his left arm, and he had to sit down because of the dizzy spell. But he won’t think to go to the doctor until it’s too late.
Correction: he won’t go to the doctor because he’s been convinced that doctors are for sissies. What Uncle Sam needs is a bunch of good socialist economists to heavily overhaul his government regulation and clamp down on those out of control
viral infectionsmarkets.I’d also like to point out that an attack on Iran in December would hardly surprise me at all. Word on the tubes is that Bush is already planning to drop a binding draconian “trade” treaty on the Democrats in December. If Obama wins, I think we need to be prepared for him to wind up and take a great big shit on the planet, throwing out as much chaos and destruction as possible to try and ruin Obama’s chances right out of the gate.
Obama needs to stop sucking up to Israel. They’re not his friends. They’re going to do their best to destroy him utterly.
Jerome a Paris has a very good analysis of the issue up at ET today, tying oil to the underlying economic malaise: Countdown to $200 oil meets Anglo Disease…very succinct, and examines the root causes:
highly recommended