The term Imperial Overstretch was coined by the historian Paul Kennedy in trying to explain the decline of the Roman and the British Empires.What the term means is that in the intial stages of empire building, the victories against weaker opponents come easy and the natural instinct is to expand ones hegemony over more and more opponents.The British Empire,not content with its dominance over India, managed to extend its dominion over Southeast Asia,Africa and the Middle East.As this process went on, the Empire found itself enmeshed in brushfire wars in many regions consuming more and more of its resources to the point diminishing returns set in.Rivals like Germany and Japan started eying the big power and wanted a piece of the Empire for themselves.WWII was reflection of that rivalry.
Our Empire builders who went into Iraq with fantasies of a cakewalk are running into the reality based world
even as they celebrate their macho achievements.The price of oil has reached $140 a barrel and by some predictions could reach $200 a barrel by the end of 2008.
If that prediction comes true,the Empire will reach the point of overstretch on an accelerated schedule.Not merely is the United States dependent on oil for its domestic needs its military forces are to a great extent dependent on oil too.In fact, the US military is by far the largest consumer of petroleum based fuels.This means that the cost of wars, even to an enormously productive power like the US, will become prohibitive and will prove to be a drain on its resources.An economic collapse cannot be ruled out under these circumstances.
It is at these historic junctures that rivals to our power will emerge.I see a coalition of powers along the lines of BRICs (Brazil,Russia,India and China) will see an opening and begin to assert themselves.Whether that will be sufficient for the US to shed its dreams of world hegemony,only time will tell.But,I think the bells are tolling for the demise of hegemony.
Is Obama destined to be our Gorbachov?
Barack Obama has a historic opportunity to steer this country away from the debilitating addiction to militarism and violence that has eroded the moral authority of this country in the rest of the world.In one swoop he has the potential to rise to the level of Gorbachev and Jimmy Carter combined.
I hope he reaches that potential for the sake of our country and the world.
So far, he is trying to convince everyone that he will do no such thing, as I suggest in this diary.
How can you begin to dismantle American militarism without crossing AIPAC? And Obama has gone out of his way to make clear to AIPAC that he will never cross it.
Uri Avnery writes in the article I just linked to:
I really don’t see Barak Obama doing much about that.
No, the United States is not going to renounce its empire as gracefully as the Soviet Union/Russia did. The US will not gracefully drop out of empire, the way John Dean dropped out of the 2004 presidential race. Instead, it will persist in its denial that the period of its hegemony is over, the way that Hillary Clinton persisted in her denial that she had lost the Democratic nomination for good to Obama.
Unfortunate, but probably right.
Much as I want to see Barack Obama turn into an American version of Mikhail Gorbachev, I have to agree that the chances of that happening are pretty remote.
That is because, this country or more prescisely its ruling class thinks that living as an equal among the nations of the world is not enough.America has to be number one,especially in waging wars against the weak.
So, yes, won’t happen no matter how well meaning Barack Obama is.
Howard Dean?
Yes, Howard Dean. To coin a term, I miswrote myself.
So you read my posts. Do you read my diaries? I directly challenge your interpretation of Obama in the second paragraph. Aren’t you going to defend him?
I don’t mean to be confrontational, but I really don’t think that the progressive blogosphere should let Obama’s abject genuflections before AIPAC go by without raising even a whimper.
By the way, after we had this exchange, I fell into line about supporting Obama. But now that he has the nomination, I think we have a few weeks in which we can afford to openly reflect about the degree to which his agenda actually matches ours.
We’re not whimpering.
People like Rabbi Arthur Waskow of the Shalom Center in Philadelphia are already making a move to let those in power know that we won’t support an Iran attack.
Contact your reps now.
That should strengthen Obama.