Nate Silver is awesome. I love him for doing first-rate progressive analysis. His piece on Palin’s chances of winning the Republican nomination is very impressive and convincing on the merits. But I just don’t think Palin has the work ethic to run a successful presidential campaign. Set aside what we already know about her (attending like six colleges before getting a degree, quitting in the middle of her term as governor). We just got through watching Obama and Hillary go toe to toe for two years. All those visits to Iowa and New Hampshire and Vegas and Elko and everywhere else…all those chicken dinners…appearances before political interest groups…fundraisers…20 debates…
I simply do not believe that you can win the nomination without doing most of those things. You need a relentless drive. Celebrity alone won’t do it for you. And Palin will never do most (and certainly not all) of those things. She’s making good money doing nothing right now, which is such a sweet gig that only someone even more foolish than Palin would give it up to do the primary grind.
I’m happy to be wrong. But I cannot envision Palin winning a single primary. It’s not because she doesn’t have a lot of support in the Republican Party. It’s because she’d never make it to election day in Iowa without alienating everyone with her laziness and lack of respect.
I’ve been waiting for someone to come out and say this. It’s possible that Palin could walk to the Republican nom – but only if she ALSO had the otherwordly stamina and commitment possessed by every candidate for a major party nom since John Adams. Remember that Palin wasn’t an also-ran in the 2008 primaries – she was airlifted out of nowhere into the general election by McCain, Schmidt & co. She never had to commit to a 1.5 to 2 year campaign, and when the reality of what that means dawns on her she is outta there. Either that, or a Romney, Huckabee, or some other true political creature will simply outwork her, no matter how much the base loves her.
This isn’t to say that Palin won’t remain a dangerous, destructive force in American politics. The contrary, unfortunately, until some new figure or paradigm replaces her. But Booman is right, she’d never make it to August 2012.
I think you are absolutely right. She will never hold up. Before she burns out, though, what effects do you think she will have on the nomination? Push it further Right? Or a return to sanity? Granted return to sanity means return to 1960.
Perhaps she will push the Republican rhetoric so far to the incoherent right that it will turn off the entire country, resulting in a ’64 or ’84-like crushing Dem/Obama victory? One can hope. Right now I don’t quite see how else the Repubs case off their current insanity – sweating out the fever and such.
“Cast off,” I meant.
“work ethic”
I’ve had the same thought about her, she’d make Fred Thompson look like a fevered workhorse by comparison.
The Republican nomination will be worth having this time. She’ll have competition from real politicians who know how to do this. A friend of mine in media says she is aiming to replace Oprah. Much more dangerous there anyway. ‘Course she’d have to read some or completely change the show and its audience.
Or learn to write real small on her hand.
And I have to wonder what Chris Cillizza has been drinking. “Folksy zingers” that are devastatingly effective?????
How the frak does he figure “effective” when she was the junior partner on a team that, as Bush would say “took a thumpin’ “? When nobody considers her competent to do the job of President?
Seriously Chris, stop drinking that bong water, it’s gonna give you a headache.
Shorter Nate: You can’t put lipstick on a pig.
For the 2008 GOP primaries, there were twenty-one debates. 21!
And she engaged in only one (1!) debate as a candidate herself, a memorable performance (wink) where she exceeded expectations simply by not repeating her Katie Couric interview fiasco.
The dream debate scenario where blood would be shed would be Sarah Palin against Newt Gingrich, who once said of himself, “I’m too intellectual; I’m too abstract; I think too much.” He’d be aggressive enough to go after her.
Not only is Palin lazy, but she would be running against other Republicans, who would certainly not treat her with the same amount of chivalry she receives from the media. Mitt Romney will have no scruples about going after her with every weapon he can find, and there are many of them.
The wardrobe expense would break the repub party treasury.
If Palin had the work ethic, I could see her beating Mittens, who probably can’t win a lot of red areas. I have real doubts as to whether Mittens can win anything south of the Mason-Dixon line with the GOPers, even if the President is a black guy.
(Which isn’t good, because if Obama craps out and we’re stuck with another GOPer in 2013, I’d prefer it be the technocrat-ish one who isn’t dead-set on bringing about the end of days, but that’s another issue.)
I can’t see her beating Ayatollah Huckabee even with a solid work ethic. Why go for the moron when you can elect a wingnuttier wingnut who’s got serviceable PR skills?
This is to say nothing of the fact that the idea of Palin outworking Mittens or Huckocalypse is laughable, or the fact that she’s clearly incompetent even when the task has her undivided attention.
Palin couldn’t run the drive-thru at a Checkers.
Flipping Mitt vs. Caribou Barbie Deathmatch
coming to you in 2011
LOL
I don’t mean this in a smarmy way, but honestly this entire thread (Boo’s post included) reads like a bunch of people trying to convince themselves that Sarah Palin can’t win the nomination.
A great many people in this country are horrified, terrorized really, by the shocking complexity of the problems facing this country and the world at large. Such people often look for authority figures who will coddle them as they recoil from this complexity, and assuage their terror with an oversimplified worldview and the oversimplified (misoversimplified?) solutions that accompany it (think Palin’s ‘common sense solutions,’ Bush’s ‘good vs evil,’ godless communists, remember the maine, etc etc etc).
Given the huge mass of such people in our country, a person like Palin must NOT be underestimated. It’s a tough trick; we shouldn’t inflate her chances by overestimating her, but we can’t fail to appreciate the appeal of her style. As our country continues to sink deeper into the mire, and as our chances of extricating ourselves in time continue to decrease, the Palin appeal may become stronger as opposed to weaker. In other words, as things become bleaker and more complex, many will seek shelter in the simplicity she offers.
Palin may have seemed listless and flaky on the 2008 campaign trail, but if she feels she has a real shot at the big desk, who’s to say she won’t become emboldened and step up her game? It doesn’t mean she’ll get any smarter before then, but does she really have to be? Are reasoned, nuanced statements more persuasive to the American people than a pretty face and a soundbite? Here’s hoping we never find out…
Last thing, I’m glad to be wrong. But why are you, BooMan? I hope you’re right about her!
So… has anyone yet gone broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people?
AG
that have nothing even remotely to do with any “reality” other than the producers’ desire to make money, a reality show President is far from out of the question.
After all…how “real” was George Butch II?
Really!!!
He was a “made man.”
Not in the Mafia sense, but in a hypno-hype sense.
A good case could be made that for at least 6 years of his administration a large majority of the American people believed that he was actually in charge. DemRats and Ratpubs, libruls and costivatives alike, despite massive evidence to the contrary.
A case could also be made that Palin is more naturally talented in the necessities of reality show. After all…she does use the world’s oldest (and most valuable) possession as her primary political tool.
Sex.
Wink wink.
(It works…)
Take the remaining lowest approval poll percentages of the Butch II admin…what was that, about 33%?…add to that those wingnuts for whom Butch was too liberal (Yes, Virginia, there is a Satan clause. Call ’em wingnuts or call ’em Teapartiers… they’re out there.) and then add to that the middle aged white erection vote (It’s massive, folks. Bet on it. And in politics, size does matter.) and you have some very interesting numbers.
How much of that vote can lame Mitt get?
How about sneaky Newt?
Mr. Hucksterbee?
Hmmmmm…
She is apparently “feuding” with with Rush Limpbough. (CBS News: Is Sarah Palin at War with Rush Limbaugh?)
Hmmmm…
I wonder why?
Could it be…Satan!!!???
Or because she can beat his meatheads?
Betcha.
She’s on the way.
Betcha.
Watch.
AG
10 bonus points for working that SNL skit into the mix.
Y’mean…the Church Lady wasn’t real!!!???
It was all a skit!!!???
Awwwwww….
Nevermind.
Yore friend,
Emily
David Broder’s endorsement:
http://digbysblog.blogspot.com/2010/02/deans-valentine-by-digby-somebodys-got.html
He wrote that yesterday, and today his own paper putsout a poll showing Palin’s standing has collapsed, even with conservatives.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/10/AR2010021004708.html?hpid=topnews
I will say though, that you can attend six colleges for a variety of reasons, and I know people who did it due to lack of financial aid and other challenges, showing strength rather than weakness.
In the meantime, Fox is putting television cameras in Palin’s house further undercutting confidence in her. The argument from the Wingnuts will become that being UNqualified is better than be qualified for the job of president.
I haven’t read Nate’s analysis, but what is it based on? Poll after poll consistently shows that the vast majority of Americans do not think she’s qualified AND do not want her to run, including a majority of Americans. This is empiracal evidence–that’s being ignored by the media and analysts alike. My only question is why? Why are we aiding in giving this woman the APPEARANCE of support she doesn’t actually have? I get why the media does it because she drives ratings like any freak show, but why are political analysts doing it?
I know that the prevailing “wisdom” attributes President Obama’s win to “c”harisma and “c”hange. It was in part, but Independents were not swayed by his charm or the promise of change; they were swayed by the other “c” word: COMPETENCY. They elected him because of the promise of return to competency. And that’s the same double-edged sword that has them abandoning him now. They don’t think he’s any less charming. They still like him. They just don’t think he’s performing his job competently.
Sarah Palin’s going to fill that void?! To quote Clay Davis (shout out to The Wire fans), shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit. Certainly Mitt Romney is a candidate to fill that void. And if charm us needed, there is no one on their side more charming than Mike Huckabee. He’s the only one on the short or long list of Republican contenders that has won a majority of African American votes in a state-wide election. To date, I’ve not seen one poll that doesn’t have Huckabee comfortably defeating Palin. Moreover, he’s the only Republican in any recent poll that defeats President Obama.
Sarah Palin will be the 2012 version of Guiliani Despite poll after poll showing that conservatives were not going to vote for him, the media and some analysts thought “America’s mayor” could win them over.
Well, the reason I provide links is so that you can see for yourself and the reason I often fail to explain what is at the link is to incentivize you to visit someone else’s site and help their traffic.
So, if you want to know why Nate thinks Palin is a formidable candidate in a Republican primary, you should follow the link.
and myth-making possibilities of the hypnomedia, NMP.
Bet on it.
You write:
Why?
Because the so-called “analysts”…at least the ones who have enough public presence tlo influence substantial numbers of people…are the media.
Duh.
You also write:
I dunno about that, either.
Which “independents?”
The independents who were independent of the media?
Damned few of those.
Damned few.
The media sold Obama to the American people. First they sold him to the Dems over Clinton and then they sold him to the independents over McPai(l)in.
Why?
I am not sure.
Becauuse he was more telegenic?
Possibly.
Because he was more “competent?”
Hmmmm….
Who is more competent…in a thoroughly proven manner, I might add, over about 30+ years of successful political life……than Hillary Clinton?
Because he made promises…either tacitly inflected or baldly (if privately) stated…to powerful people that no matter what went down he would not upset their applecart?
That’s my version.
Bet on that as well.
He would not upset their applecart and he would get things straight again here in the Untied States of Omertica.
But…he is having more trouble doing that then the power brokers of the PermaGov anticipated, so they are laying some money down on another horse just to be sure to cover their asses no matter which way things go.
Which horse?
Why…the mare, this time.
She’s a runner…which is more than you can say about the rest of the field except for that other mare, Hillary. And she can’t be trusted. She has said things…
Like:
And of course:
In public!!!
For attribution!!!
Lord!!!
What would she have to say about Cheney!!!???
Cain’t be having that kind of shit floating around where the marks kin hear it.
And worst of all?
OOOOoooooo….
Nope.
It was Obama or nobody.
So they took the plunge.
They sold him like he was a can of Coca-Cola.
Now…is that Obama’s fault?
I don’t think so.
Like that ur– American politician George Washington Plunkitt, Obama acted on the following principle:
With the best of intentions, no doubt.
And now he is treading that famous highway to wherever….the one that is paved with best intentions.
So that goes as well.
Palin?
Nipal? (Say it.)
L-Pain?
P-Nail?
La Nip?
She’s the next starter if he can’t win the game for the PermaGov team.
Bet on it.
If we can’t stop her first.
Expose her essential stupidity.
Big job, going up against the hypno-media.
First…y’gotta wake the marks up.
UH oh!!!
How you gonna do that if you are in a trance?
“UH oh!!!” squared.
Job ONE.
Yup.
For us.
Sigh…
AG
I don’t see the “work ethic” thing mattering in this case. Palin’s only appeal is to fear and ignorance. You don’t have to cram for the debates or learn some history to assure the base that you’re still stupid and ignorant like them. The fact speaks for itself.
If she runs she will get a few serviceable speeches and talking points written for her. When she refuses to stray from them or answer unplanted questions she will be praised for “message discipline”. Her campaign will run on TV, radio, and the Net, not on the stump, mostly by proxies. If the electoral demographics and the temper of the times make that a winning combo, she’ll win. No “hard work” required for her to make her best and only case.
Meaning she’ll skip Iowa and maybe even New Hampshire – a mavericky move, to be certain…
Traditionally, candidates have shown their dedication by trudging through the snow for stray votes in New Hampshire and Iowa. Sarah Palin is from Alaska. She doesn’t haven’t any trouble with snow.
Traditionally, candidates cram their schedules full of appearances. Sarah Palin won’t be expected to that. She can’t do that, don’t you see? She has a special needs child she has to care for.
Quitting her job as governor wasn’t about a lack of work ethic. It was about not being willing to go back to the farm after she saw Pah-ree.
Palin loves being a celebrity, and she sees the chance to be the biggest celebrity of them all. It’s a one-time chance (she’s not going to able to keep her looks forever), and she’s going to fight tooth and nail to take it.
Whether she succeeds in getting the nomination depends a lot on who else is running and whether the Tea Party lasts another two years. But I would not count her out on the grounds of supposed lack of work ethic.
Many things appear impossible, and then they happen.
I wonder if she really cares about being president. Deep down she knows how inadequate she is, and how much shit would get thrown at her if she did make it. Why not just take the easy route to fame and fortune by blabbering on captive talkshows and “writing” books? But the longer she can keep the speculation going, the better off she’ll be from her perspective. Unless she really does hate America enough to want it humiliated by having her run for president.
It’s not hatred of America, per se, but I do believe that she wants to be president – true narcissists never factor in others, for good or for bad…
A true narcissist.
DaveW writes:
Nope.
Even if there is a “deep down” in this woman…a fact that I contend is not a given in certain individuals despite years of societal conditioning that ol’ Sigmund Freud was right on the money (I mean…please. Look at the results of “Freudian” theory. Nuts everywhere and not a cure in a carload.)…but even if there is one, it is unavailable to her.
As in the original tale of Narcissus, all she can see is her own beauty reflected in the (press) Pool.
Caravaggio knew.
Bet on it.
AG
She is, in fact, a classic textbook case of Narcissistic Personality Disorder. She might not have been formally diagnosed, but all the signs are there. Google it, and you’ll see what I mean. Her kind have no real sense of their own existence outside what they see reflected from others.
FWIW, I have thought the same thing. Her children seeming like mere props in the Sarah Palin show just adds to it…
Yes, that certainly tells us a lot about her.
And contrast that with the way the Clintons, whatever else you might think of them, kept Chelsea in the background, and tried to protect her privacy. Ditto the Obamas with their kids.
Follow the money. She’s a grifter, and she’s struct gold. She’ll do just enough to rake in the dough that sets her up for life.