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BAGHDAD (Christian Science Monitor) – Secular Muslim politician Ayad Allawi won Iraq’s landmark parliamentary election by just two seats, defeating incumbent Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki, who immediately repeated his demands for a recount and warned that the outcome “is not final.”
Allawi’s Iraqiya coalition won 91 of the next parliament’s 325 seats, compared to 89 for Maliki’s State of Law alliance, according to Iraq’s independent election commission. It was unclear who won the popular vote in the March 7 election, but Iraq’s electoral law says the coalition that wins the province-by-province seat count is the one that will form the next government.
Complicated quota system helps put Iraqi women in parliament
UPDATE below the fold: Maliki Is Challenging the Vote
CAIRO (AP) – The challenge by Iraq’s Shiite prime minister to election results that showed him coming in a close second to his chief rival — Sunni-backed Ayad Allawi — is a risky tactic.
If Nouri al-Maliki succeeds in his attempt to block the secular Shiite Allawi from forming a coalition government, it would leave the minority Sunni Arabs seething. That could undermine the credibility of Iraq’s nascent democracy and unleash a new bout of sectarian violence just as the U.S. is preparing to pull all its troops out of the country.
Al-Maliki followed his challenge of the results by seeking court rulings and other maneuvers aimed at securing a second term for himself and maintaining the political dominance of religious Shiite parties.
Iraqi analyst Kadhum al-Muqdadi said such a partnership would disappoint Iraqis who wanted to see change through Allawi. “It will mean four more years of the same faces, same political situation and same approach.”
Al-Maliki also appears to be trying to change the rules of the game in his favor.
BANNING IRAQIYA POLITICIANS
The prime minister also said he would demand that several Iraqiya candidates elected to parliament be disqualified for their suspected ties to Saddam Hussein’s Baathist regime, another move that raised the sectarian tensions.
Hundreds of candidates, many of them Sunni and including senior Iraqiya politicians, had already been barred by a Shiite-led committee from running because of their alleged links to Saddam’s regime.
This is pretty bad news. Allawi is a former Ba`thist thug turned CIA asset turned “exiled opposition leader” urging regime change by force turned U.S. occupation puppet. The U.S. spent tens of millions trying to get him elected in the election before this one, and he is almost certain to turn out to be the perfect U.S.-friendly “strongman” to put American interests at the forefront.
There is one positive aspect of this, and that is the fact that Allawi is secular, which suggests a return on the part of Iraqis to the more secular, pluralistic outlook that characterized Iraqi society for centuries, and Iraqi politics from the beginning of the Republic until 2003 (yes, I know Saddam’s regime was supposedly Sunni sectarian, but that is simply false, and shows a complete lack of understanding of Iraqi society, Iraqi politics, the Ba`th party, and what drove Saddam Hussein himself).
And by the way, the term secular Muslim used in the article to describe Allawi is a ridiculous oxymoron. There is no such thing as a secular Muslim. One is either a Muslim or one is secular. It is impossible to be both because the very essence and most fundamental requirement of being a Muslim is the conviction that God is the only god, and Muhammad is his Prophet. One can be secular from a Muslim background, of course, but never a secular Muslim.
Muslim (of specific sect) in private, maybe?
It’s possible of course for a religious person to head or be part of a secular political party and a secular government and there is no conflict in that. It is also possible for a non-religious politician to pose as a religious person, as the very secular Saddam did after 1991, in order to pander to religious elements. However, to the best of my knowledge `Allawi is not a Muslim in any religious sense. I doubt God plays any significant part in his life. He drinks alcohol, he does not pray, I doubt he fasts, and he has to the best of my knowledge always led a secular life.
The fact that he comes from a predominantly Shi`a family would have had virtually no relevance at all to much of anyone prior to 2003 when the Americans came in with the ignorant attitude that this was the most significant factor in Iraqi society and politics. Despite my total contempt for `Allawi and his ilk, I AM encouraged to see possible signs that Iraqis are returning to their traditional secular outlook. Last year when I was in Damascus Iraqis who had been back home recently told me they felt the sectarian nonsense brought on and encouraged by the Americans was dissipating somewhat. Perhaps they were right. Over the last millennium and a half or so there has been a small handful of instances in Iraq of serious violent Sunni-Shi`a conflict. Each one was brought on by a foreign invasion and occupation, and in each case after the occupation ended relations returned to normal. Let us hope that we are seeing a repeat of that history now.
Unfortunately, the Americans also got what they wanted in `Allawi – a strongman who will have American interests as a primary concern.
It don’t know that Allawi is in the best position to form a government given that he has a mere two seat advantage. With his strong support from Sunnis, it will be difficult to successfully bring the Kurds into his government, and without the Kurds, he’ll have to deal with Sadrists or something. Minor parties will not be enough. I think Maliki is in better shape, overall, even though he doesn’t get the first crack at it.
Maybe. Time will tell. Neither one of them is any great prize, although Maliki HAS managed to show a modicum of nationalist backbone when he felt the nationalists might put his job in jeopardy.
PS The Sadrists are strong nationalists who have repeatedly made overtures and stated their desire to ally with Sunni and secular nationalist elements in Iraq. Not sure that is enough to make up for their horribly backward and misguided religious ideas, though.
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See update in diary – NY Times: Iraqi PM Takes Risks by Challenging Vote
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."