Mark Halperin takes an early look at the shape of the Republican primary field for the presidential election in 2012. One thing I’ll note right off the bat is that this will be the second straight election without a natural successor for the Republicans. And it’s even worse than that. With the exception of 1964, every election since Eisenhower left office has seen the Republicans nominate an obvious choice. In 1960 and 1968, it was former vice-president Richard Nixon, who had held the highest office of any of the contenders. The same was true in 1988 when then vice-president George H.W. Bush captured the prize. In 1972, 1976, 1984, 1992, and 2004 the incumbent Republican president won the nomination. And the remaining years? In 1980, 1996, and 2008, the Republicans selected the runner-up from the last competitive cycle (Reagan, Dole, McCain). The 2000 contest was a bit of an anomaly but George W. Bush at least shared a name with the last Republican president.
If the Republicans follow suit, they’ll nominate last cycle’s runner-up, Mitt Romney. But for a variety of reasons, this seems unlikely. Halperin goes into some detail on Romney’s shortcomings, but it really comes down to the president passing a national version of RomneyCare in a very polarizing manner that should make it all but impossible for Romney to appeal to the Republican base-voter. With no obvious alternative to Romney, we’re left speculating about two sets of Republicans. One set includes the well known. p>
As a failed vice-presidential candidate, Sarah Palin finds herself in the same position as Bob Dole, Dan Quayle, and Jack Kemp. That’s not strong company, even if Dole did finally win the nomination twenty years after losing his bid to become Ford’s vice-president. But history isn’t Palin’s biggest problem. She lacks focus and drive. She displays none of the qualities that successful primary candidates need to persevere over a two-year campaign.
Another well-known Republican whose name gets bandied about its Newt Gingrich. The narrative on Newt is that he is a Man of Ideas, which is supposed to distinguish him from nearly every other Republican. I don’t think Newt is truly armed with many fresh, appealing ideas, but he does have political smarts. What he doesn’t have is a clean record or natural charisma. It’s not impossible to imagine him winning the nomination (for a while, I predicted he would enter and win the 2008 nomination), but it is impossible to envision him winning the presidency.
As for Mike Huckabee, he’s already announced that he has no intention of running again.
That leads us to the second group of Republicans. These are people with little national profile right now, but who have some potential ability to rise out of nowhere, as Barack Obama did in the last cycle and Jimmy Carter did in 1976. The main names I hear are Govs. Haley Barbour, Mitch Daniels, Tim Pawlenty, and Bobby Jindal. But, for my money, the most formidable dark horse is Senator John Thune of South Dakota. He looks like a president and he has the ability and discipline to be a consistently serious politician. If he has a fault, it may be a lack of personal ambition and drive for the top job. It’s also possible that we really are approaching a reprise of 1964, where the Republican electorate is going to go for the ‘extremism in the pursuit of liberty is no vice’ candidate without any regard for the short-term political consequences.
I also think it is quite likely that we will see a high profile third-party candidate from the Right. That risk will become more pronounced if the Republican establishment succeeds in pushing through a ‘moderate’ nominee like Thune.
As bad as the polls are for Democrats these days, it’s still difficult to imagine a competitive election in 2012. It’s actually easier to envision a huge blowout win for Obama of a type not seen for a Democrat since 1964. But, it’s too early to predict something like that. One way the Republicans will try to prevent such a blowout is to keep the country as polarized as possible.
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(GallupPoll) – Over the course of the year, independents’ preference for the Republican candidate in their districts has grown. Preference of Independents now stands at 29% for a Democratic candidate and 47% for a Republican.
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."
I’ve had my eye on John Thune since he defeated Daschle. I was quite relieved when McCain didn’t have the good sense to pick him as his running mate. Recognizing presidential quality is not cerebral. You immediately know it when you see it. One look at Thune I had the same reaction I had when I saw and heard Obama for the first time, “He’s going to be president.” He looks like the reincarnation of John Kennedy. Plays ball like a brotha and is unintimidatingly smart. In other words, he’s damn near a white Obama. A real threat. But they won’t run him in 2012. They won’t risk wasting their best shot at reclaiming the White House. He’ll run in 2016, and he’s going to win.
In the unlikely event he does run in 2012, expect to see the biggest political swap in modern history. Hillary will have to be put on the ticket. The only person that could keep white women from swarming to Thune is Hillary.
Have you ever seen him up close? Ick. Over-tanned, wrinkly and too skinny. I don’t know too many women who would flock to that. At least he’s not orange like Boehner, so I suppose he’s got that going for him.
Do people really believe in 2012?
Evelina
Just his pics, but I definitely see the “it” factor. And when I saw video of him balling, my only thought was “Damn! He’s going to be trouble.”
Are you serious?
Why exactly would white working women in particular be so willing to vote for Thune (who is every bit as right-wing as the rest of the group) over Obama unless he, for some reason, picks Hillary Clinton as his running mate (a choice that, I contend, would still be a bad one, her flaws have not disappeared in the last two years).
At the risk of betraying my gender, women don’t vote with their heads as much as they vote with their hearts and emotions. White women are going to swoon for Thune the same way black women swoon for Obama. I heard Obama’s voice before I saw his face. Had I turned to the tv and saw someone who looked like Al Sharpton, I would have kept doing my laundry. He caught my eye then stole my heart. This my sound like a complete betrayal of feminism, but it is what it is. And I can tell you that white women are going to swoon for Thune. The only man that can compete with that is a woman named Hillary.
I don’t buy that for a second, Obama did no better among black women than he did among black men (in the primaries, in fact, Obama generally did a little bit worse with black women than he did with black men).
What makes Thune dangerous is that he’ll have a competing base in the Midwest (Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin) not to mention the fact that he’s charismatic (but I bet money that won’t be something that will sway women disproportionate to men or white women disproportionately from any other group).
And frankly, my point about Hillary Clinton still stands, all of her weaknesses as a VP candidate now are no different than they were in 2008, and switching running mates at all probably causes more damage to him than would otherwise (changing horses in midstream for clearly political reasons). This, of course, assumes that Joe Biden would go quietly into the night (which I, for one, doubt). If Obama’s doomed in 2012 against Thune without switching running mates, then he’s also doomed if he switches running mates.
you’re joking, right.
or trying to establish some early PUMA beachhead?
Thune the “reincarnation of John Kennedy”?
I’d like to have some of what you’re smoking …
probably been drinking since way before st paddy’s day
If we get a big Obama blowout in 2012, I wonder if his coattails will translate to huge LBJ-style majorities too?
LBJ got some of the south. That will probably never happen again, no matter what. There’s probably not enough room in the Midwest and Mountain West to add up to huge majorities.
Thune? Meh. I’m in SoDak and most folks I know think he’s a creepy corporate apologist. But then I suppose that’s a great thing in many circles. Everyone’s got skeletons in their closet. The family values folks won’t be too thrilled, I can tell you that.
well, he’s so unpopular in S. Dakota that the Dems didn’t even field a candidate for this year’s election.
Well, that’s because people in SoDak feel compelled to vote republican because that’s what they’ve always done. Apparently, the majority likes to vote against their own interests. He’s certainly more popular than Herseth Sandlin, I’ll give you that.
Plus, us Democrats are few are far between here.
That’s my impression from what I’ve seen on the guy on the tube and a few c-span snippets — good-looking in an unremarkable and fairly common way, fast slick-talking corporate pitchman speaking quality, a pol with a ready talking point or two always at hand.
Thune strikes me as Mitt Romney without the Mormonism, and with a similar cheap type of used car salesman charisma. That and some standard-issue Repub right-wingery apparently works for some of the remaining human population in SD.
In other words, a non-Mormon Romney.
Republicans may try to keep the country polarized, but the only scenario I can envision that helping them is if unemployment stays high.
If unemployment drops, then Republicans just end up with the majority polarized again them. I just don’t see how they win in 2012 with 51-60% of the white vote.
Booman, your analysis makes as much sense as anything does this far out.
P.S. Anyone who had Obama/Biden in their April 2006 presidential finals bracket, please step to the head of the class and give us your 2012 predictions. (Bonus points if you had Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State.)
Palin’s biggest problem is lacking focus and drive? I guess you don’t consider Dumber than Roadkill an impediment? Well, we are talking GOP so you may be right.
I think the handlers consider Dumber than Roadkill an asset
How does keeping the country polarized translate to electoral advantage for the GOP, exactly? Polarization cuts both ways. Keeping the polarization requires keeping extremist policy and rhetoric. Which in normal times means one of the poles is reduced to 30 or 40 percent of the population as the sub-ideological majority gets turned off.
I suppose they could luck out and find another idiot savant bullshit master of the Reagan kind to smooth over the gaps between sanity and the GOP base, but hopefully the Dems learned a little something by now. As always, looking at Republican options is a waste of time — it’s all about the choices the Dems make between now and then.
Nobody wants it as bad as Mittens. I mean NOBODY. You couldn’t get more of a GOP stereotype than Mittens. He’s willing to do all the work..yet, I don’t see it happening for him…but, it will be fun to see him try.
I guess what I see is that the Republican base itself will become highly polarized with an extremely nasty primary fight.
What about Jeb? I think he has said he’s not going to run, but that never stopped anyone before. I guess I would put my money on Mitt, if he renounces Mormonism and is born again. Newt would be my second guess with Tim Pawlenty bringing up the rear. Palin doesn’t want to work very hard, so I don’t see her getting in and I think she knows she’s not smart enough to handle the job. There could be a governor out there somewhere who could rise to the top of the list too, someone unknown and pasty white.
Al Giordano’s take on the current GOP line-up. I think he gets quite a few things right, including the unlikelihood of Romney’s nomination.
The realm problem with Al is that he thinks Obama is doing a fantastic job.
Maybe not fantastic; but I’m happy with him.
I think Obama’s doing a fantastic job too, and I suspect that history will vindicate my view (as well as Al’s)
manifestly apparent I have a vastly different view of the man’s job performance that you do so really not getting into that. My point is I’m wondering if Al has ever criticized Obama? It’s
He’s criticized Obama over a couple of things relating to the handling of things in Latin America and some of his handling on illegal drugs. In any case after a little over a year of being in office, from an objective standard, Obama has probably accomplished more than any president has in the last 45 years, so I’m having a really hard time wondering why one shouldn’t think that Obama has been doing a good job.
Looks like a president? Do you mean he is chiseled and tan like a young demigod or at least, like David Brooks imagines one to look like?
I don’t think Thune is the person to be afraid of honestly, since I don’t think a guy at all associated with Washington can take on Obama fully. He might have an outsider-y aura about him, but I don’t see the GOP having any shot with a Senator. The guy that scares me is Daniels. He’s from the Mid-West which is a week point for Obama, he’s got a mostly positive from a political point of view executive record to run on, and he strikes me more as a common sense style conservative then as a crazy tea-bagger style one. I don’t know if he’ll run, but if he does he’s the person I don’t want the GOP to nominate.
Didn’t Daniels work for Bush? I know the American memory is like Swiss cheese but I don’t think they’ll forget that quick.
If I’m him (and praise God that I’m not), then it makes sense to say now that I won’t run. I get to host my show and stay on the edges of the public eye without drawing the scrutiny that the people who are clearly going to run are getting. It’s hard to remain under that gaze for two years without alienating people, especially when your party is on the wrong side of big issues and acting like fools. It’s far better to step in later and say that you just had to throw your hat in the ring because while the country has continued to drift away from its greatness, a candidate hasn’t yet come forth who can unite the American people against the worrisome tendencies of the Democrats. Throw in a big bunch of dog whistles (he’s Evangelical, but he’s not brown — should be the easiest thing in the world), and it looks pretty good, doesn’t it?
I say he starts meeting with important consultants and money men in a year or so, just enough to signal to donors to stay uncommitted for a while, and just enough to stir up the Beltway gossip. It won’t take long before you’ll have David Brooks writing “Draft Huckabee” columns.
Huckabee is a possible contender. He may be too smart to run in 2012 but he probably wants to retain his beachhead in Iowa. I expect him to run long enough to contest Iowa and then use whatever leverage he might gain to establish some quid pro quo alliances for 2016. I can’t imagine any Republican insurgent making a serious run for 2012 except Gingrich, who probably won’t have another chance.