If it’s true that the president is going to move to immigration reform about a month from now, then things are about to get crazier than we’ve ever seen them, and where it all shakes out for the Democrats is anybody’s guess. My instincts tell me that this is a bridge too far. I don’t think Obama can get any immigration bill passed right now. I don’t think too many Democrats want any part of an immigration fight with their polling numbers looking historically bad. And I don’t think the Tea Partiers will be able to avoid having their heads explode.
However, the Republicans cannot afford to alienate the Latino community and still expect to win statewide and national elections in this country in the coming decades. The sensible (few) among them know this, but they have no control over the majority or the rabidly racist base of their party. Any immigration debate is going to do severe damage to the Republican Party and open all kind of internal strife.
Whether reforms pass or fail, the mere attempt in this political climate is likely to take a wrecking ball to Congress. Where all the pieces land is impossible to predict.
On the upside, this will be a major promise that Obama keeps. The Democrats will be rewarded with continued and increasing loyalty from the Latino community. Even if I think Obama is crazy to think he can pass reforms in the remainder of this Congress, we do desperately need to pass them soon. And the next Congress isn’t likely to be easier. So, fasten your chin straps. This is gonna be rough. It’s the right thing to do. But it isn’t what I would call ‘prudent.’
With unprecedented unemployment in this country, pushing for increased immigration can only hurt with white and black voters. Black voters do not see this as a racial equality issue. They see it as a jobs issue. Maybe Democrats can afford to lose white voters, but they cannot get elected without black voters.
God, I hope we can still get energy reform passed too.
The House hasn’t produced an immigration bill, have they? I know that they’ve raced through energy and financial reform in addition to being first past the gate on HCR. I’d think having the energy bill in the Senate worked on first would be more prudent since there’s already a waiting bill in the House.
imprudent…ya think?
given the continuing high unemployment numbers they’d be well advised to get back to that. at least they were able to put together some sort of coalition with a few of the rats on the tepid $18b jobs bill they passed last month, but it isn’t going to get them much traction at the polls.
buckle up indeed.
unemployment is at 10%. the thought of bringing up attempting to offer AMNESTY to 20 million people – is CRAZY RIGHT NOW.
Indeed Buckle up and make sure you have an air-bag. I find the argument of unemployment is a false argument. As most of the undocumented immigrants are working in the shadows without work authorization. Documented workers tend to earn more than undocumented workers.
It isn’t a false argument only because the right has convinced so many people that illegals are stealing their jobs(or variations of the hating immigrants routine).
Well lets put the argument another way. There are 12 million people who cannot board an Airplane in the US. There are 12 million people who have cannot get a mortgage to buy a house or get a loan to start a business.
There are a lot more than that! At least ten times that number and I would argue 20X based on the current banking situation.
“I don’t think too many Democrats want any part of an immigration fight with their polling numbers looking historically bad. “
It’s not the polling numbers, it’s an easily demagogued issue and unemployment is at 10%.
Even if I think Obama is crazy to think he can pass reforms in the remainder of this Congress, we do desperately need to pass them soon.
I am not sure Obama wants to do this(Rahmbo certainly doesn’t), but Reid needs to shore up his base back home. And I am sure other Democrats look at this like most of us here do. This is going to expose the ugly underbelly of the Republican party. I mean, look at Cranky McSame. He used to be for reform, now he’s pandering to the right-wing crazies because of J.D. Hayworth’s primary challenge.
Does this mean that we’re going to have to listen to Tancredo again for another half year? Prefer Palin to that.
I know they think they’ll get alot of wind in their sails from the Financial Reform but the finish line for Immigration is a long long reach.
On the other hand, McConnell seems to be getting dizzy from chasing his tail this past week on FR, maybe keeping the R’s dizzy with fast tracking issues is the best way to gain momentum. Harsh.
I’m game. Bring on the crazy.
Playing it safe is not going to help, come November. Driving a wedge between independents and the Republican Party might. The more the GOP panders ugly on immigration — something they’ll need to do to keep the Tea Party crowd in the fold — the more independents vote for Democrats or stay home.
And what about doing what’s right? That’s what progressives are always preaching about, right? 40 million and growing by the day, and they have to wait until it’s politically feasible? AZ is on the cusp of turning into apartheid South Africa and we’re just going to sit back and watch? If Democrats turn their backs on them I hope they stick their collective foot all the way up the Democrat Party’s ass and twist it!
My point is to contest the suggestion that it’s tactically unwise to do the right thing in this case.
Maybe Congress needs a wrecking ball- easy for me to say, though, from my quiet office.
“My instincts tell me that this is a bridge too far.” Of course they do. You’re a white “progressive”.
In many ways, your smug indifference and dismissiveness to Latino interests is no better than “rabid racism” within the Republican Party. We have all justifiably ridiculed the almost blanket whiteness of the Republican Party and tea bagger rallies, but don’t get it twisted… ‘netroots nation’ is in NO danger of being confused with the united nations. And this has not escaped the attention of black and brown folks who would quickly ditch the Democratic Party if better options were available. It’s a marriage of convenience NOT love.
But here’s a wake-up call to Democrats of every color…if you think Latinos are going to play long-term plantation politics with the Democratic Party the way black folks have, you are sadly mistaken. Latinos not only have the numbers, but they’ve been smart as hell, however unintentional, in making themselves a geographic force to be reckoned with like no other group in this country.
it’s not just the Republican Party who can not afford to alienate Latinos. Neither can Democrats. CA, CO, FL, IL, NJ, NM, NV, NY, and now VA. You name me one of those states Democrats can win if Latinos stay home in 2010 and 2012? The President knows he owes his victory in large measure to Latinos and he’s well aware that he can’t win without them in 2012. Even if his Party doesn’t yet know it.
Please don’t take Booman’s position as that of Netroots Nation. In fact as you’ll see in a few short weeks we’re going to have a lot of programming dedicated to working on this issue and we’ve been advocating for it among the progressive community for months.
I’d be happy to talk with you about our efforts to branch out and get more folks involved, you’re welcome to email me at raven (at) netrootsnation (dot) org
I’ve had many issues with Kos (and white progressives generally), but at least he seems to remember what progressivism is supposed to stand for when it comes to civil rights in this country. The MSM may not notice 200,000 Latinos assembled on Capitol Hill the same day as 2,000 white tea baggers but a political party who gets the bulk of their votes should! As an elderly Latino woman from El Salvadore told me when I knocked on her door in the summer of 2008 canvassing for Obama, “I can’t vote, but my children can and my grandchildren will. You remember that.” That was my wake-up call. The Democratic Party needs to wake up.
There is STRONG public support for immigration reform
by kos
Wed Apr 21, 2010 at 09:10:04 AM PDT
Interesting, in my last post on immigration reform, many commenters fretted that doing it now would prove unpopular with voters. It’s amazing how so many people have internalized right-wing opposition to doing the right thing, and assume it’s true.
Let’s look at recent polling on the issue.
CBS News/New York Times Poll. April 5-12, 2010.
“Should LEGAL immigration into the United States be kept at its present level, increased, or decreased?”
Present Level 35
Increased 16
Decreased 41
Even today, in the midst of recession, Americans are supportive of immigration.
Benenson Strategy Group (PDF) for America’s Voice. 12/19-21/2009.
Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, strongly oppose Congress passing comprehensive immigration reform?
Support 64
Oppose 23
“Favor” by party ID
Democratic 69
Republican 67
Independent 72
Even among Republicans, there is strong support for immigration reform.
Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 7/6-9.
Do you favor or oppose Congress passing comprehensive immigration reform?
Favor 69
Oppose 25
“Favor” by party ID
Democratic 67
Republican 72
Independent 69
One version of immigration reform that people have discussed would do the following if passed into law; it would secure the border crack down on employers who hire illegal immigrants require illegal immigrants to register for legal immigration status pay back taxes and learn English in order to be eligible for U.S. citizenship. Do you favor or oppose Congress passing this version of immigration reform?
Favor 74
Oppose 18
“Favor” by party ID
Democratic 75
Republican 71
Independent 76
Again, support for comprehensive immigration reform crosses partisan lines. Voters are particularly drawn to the punitive side of CIR — paying back taxes and perhaps even fines, as well as the “learn English” provision.
CBS News/New York Times, April 22-26, 2009.
“Which comes closest to your view about illegal immigrants who are currently working in the U.S.? (1) They should be allowed to stay in their jobs, and to eventually apply for US citizenship. OR, (2) They should be allowed to stay in their jobs only as temporary guest workers, but not to apply for U.S. citizenship. OR, (3) They should be required to leave their jobs and leave the U.S.”
Stay, Apply for Citizenship: 44
Stay as guest workers 21
Leave 30
ABC News/Washington Post. April 21-24, 2009.
“Would you support or oppose a program giving illegal immigrants now living in the United States the right to live here legally if they pay a fine and meet other requirements?”
Support 61
Oppose 35
Progressives complain that a loud minority of teabaggers created a perception of widespread opposition to health care reform. Well, the same thing is happening on immigration, but the difference is that on this issue, lots of you guys are falling for it.
The poll numbers are clear and consistent — voters overwhelmingly support immigration reform. The frothing-at-the-mouth teabaggers won’t like it, but they are and remain a fringe minority. Immigration reform is popular, has widespread bipartisan appeal, is good policy, is the morally right thing to do, and is electorally necessary for the Democratic Party … AND the GOP, if it hopes to compete for this growing demographic into the future.
But to claim that the issue hurts is electorally flies in the face of all available data.
Three things:
Overall, this is the right thing to do, and quite courageous. In the long-term, it will pay-off politically for a variety of reasons.
But if you think this won’t cost Democrats more seats in this year’s election, I simply disagree with you. And I don’t think anything will pass, so it could be a major defeat for the administration akin to Bush’s flop on the issue or on Social Security privatization.
Maybe doing the courageous thing will pay off in the short run, too. The disgust with the government felt by every section of the political spectrum is about its chronic failure of courage and honesty. If the Dems could manage to come up with a clear and unambiguous plan without trying to weasel on the controversial parts, they would put Republicans like Mark Kirk in IL in extremely difficult positions. They would once again offer a solution while the Reps just rant and whine.
I don’t get your fear that it won’t pass. How did Bush’s legislative defeat hurt the Reps? It wasn’t even visible except to the Aynal crowd. How would the Dems losing the good fight hurt them? Doesn’t make any sense politically at all. They’d probably have been in better shape now if they’d fought unambiguously with everything they had for single payer or at least the public option and lost than they are with the compromise they won that didn’t get more than two cheers from anybody.
You don’t understand. A president can never lose on anything without being weakened and it harming his party.
People focus on Katrina, which was important in changing perceptions about Bush, but his twin failures on Social Security and immigration reform were what nailed the coffin shut on his second term.
Clinton’s failure on health care trumped all his early successes.
No sane president takes up a major controversial piece of reform thinking he will lose and then benefit.
I’m not saying it can’t happen, but no one plans for it to happen.
I’ve broached the idea of a planned failure on financial reform timed for October. Obviously, they decided to govern more cautiously and responsibly, but I can see the merit in some circumstances of giving it a whirl.
But it’s very dangerous and it toys with Congress in a way that is not too cool.
I’m not talking about “planned failure”. I’m talking about taking the risk of legislation failing. Democrats and Obama lose more by pussyfooting around, negotiating for votes and falling for every bluff until they come up with bills nobody is happy with. Change without risk is the mother of all oxymorons. If Dems don’t bring change to a country that’s falling to pieces , they lose and the teabaggers win. I don’t see how that can become any clearer.