Every once in a while it’s instructive to get a picture of what we’re fighting for when we do political advocacy. So, I put together my best guess of who will be running what in the U.S. Senate at the beginning of the next Congress. Before you look at it, here are my assumptions.
1. Sen. Robert Bennett of Utah will be ousted in at the state party convention in favor of Mike Lee.
2. John McCain will survive his primary and, whether Blanche Lincoln and Arlen Specter survive or not, the Republicans will win those seats.
3. Harry Reid will lose to Sue Lowden and Dick Durbin (not Chuck Schumer) will become Majority Leader.
4. Rand Paul and Marco Rubio will win both the primaries and the general election.
5. Elaine Marshall and Lee Fisher will win both the primaries and the general election.
6. Andrew Romanoff will defeat Michael Bennet in the primary and go on to prevail in the general.
7. Jerry Moran will prevail in the Kansas primary and go on to win the general election.
8. David Vitter will survive.
9. Despite current polls, Paul Hodes, Alexi Giannoulias, and Robin Carnahan will be elected.
10. Michael Castle will win in Delaware, John Hoeven will win in North Dakota, Richard Blumenthal will win in Connecticut and Dan Coats will win in Indiana.
Committee assignments are based on best-guess with a lot of informed opinion. For example, all new senators are ranked by the seniority they would have. Jeff Sessions is supposed to exchange the ranking chair on Judiciary for the ranking chair on Budget. If Lincoln loses, Stabenow would probably get Agriculture, etc.
I didn’t bother trying to predict who would take over open seats on the coveted Appropriations and Finance Committees, but it’s highly unlikely that those seats will go to any freshman. Although, the Republicans will have five seats to fill on Appropriations, so you never know.
Kohl, Herb (WI), Chairman
Wyden, Ron (OR)
Nelson, Bill (FL)
Casey, Robert P. (PA)
McCaskill, Claire (MO)
Whitehouse, Sheldon (RI)
Udall, Mark (CO)
Gillibrand, Kirsten E. (NY)
Franken, Al (MN)
Hodes, Paul (NH)
Giannoulias, Alexi (IL)
Fisher, Lee (OH)
Corker, Bob (TN), Ranking Member
Shelby, Richard C. (AL)
Collins, Susan M. (ME)
Hatch, Orrin G. (UT)
Graham, Lindsey (SC)
Chambliss, Saxby (GA)
Toomey, Pat (PA)
Rubio, Marco (FL)
Paul, Rand (KY)
AGRICULTURE
Stabenow, Debbie (MI), Chairman
Harkin, Tom (IA)
Leahy, Patrick J. (VT)
Conrad, Kent (ND)
Baucus, Max (MT)
Nelson, Ben (NE)
Brown, Sherrod (OH)
Casey, Robert P. (PA)
Klobuchar, Amy (MN)
Gillibrand, Kirsten E. (NY)
Giannoulias, Alexi, (IL)
Marshall, Elaine (NC)
Chambliss, Saxby (GA), Ranking Member
Lugar, Richard G. (IN)
Cochran, Thad (MS)
McConnell, Mitch (KY)
Roberts, Pat (KS)
Johanns, Mike (NE)
Grassley, Chuck (IA)
Thune, John (SD)
Cornyn, John (TX)
APPROPRIATIONS
Inouye, Daniel K. (HI), Chairman
Byrd, Robert C. (WV)
Leahy, Patrick J. (VT)
Harkin, Tom (IA)
Mikulski, Barbara A. (MD)
Kohl, Herb (WI)
Murray, Patty (WA)
Feinstein, Dianne (CA)
Durbin, Richard J. (IL)
Johnson, Tim (SD)
Landrieu, Mary L. (LA)
Reed, Jack (RI)
Lautenberg, Frank R. (NJ)
Nelson, Ben (NE)
Pryor, Mark L. (AR)
Tester, Jon (MT)
+2
Cochran, Thad (MS), Ranking Member
McConnell, Mitch (KY)
Shelby, Richard C. (AL)
Hutchison, Kay Bailey (TX)
Alexander, Lamar (TN)
Collins, Susan M. (ME)
Murkowski, Lisa (AK)
+5
ARMED SERVICES
Levin, Carl (MI), Chairman
Byrd, Robert C. (WV)
Lieberman, Joseph I. (CT)
Reed, Jack (RI)
Akaka, Daniel K. (HI)
Nelson, Bill (FL)
Nelson, Ben (NE)
Webb, Jim (VA)
McCaskill, Claire (MO)
Udall, Mark (CO)
Hagan, Kay R. (NC)
Begich, Mark (AK)
Bingaman, Jeff (NM)
Giannoulias, Alexi (IL)
Fisher, Lee (OH)
Hodes, Paul (NH)
McCain, John (AZ), Ranking Member
Inhofe, James M. (OK)
Sessions, Jeff (AL)
Chambliss, Saxby (GA)
Graham, Lindsey (SC)
Thune, John (SD)
Wicker, Roger F. (MS)
Brown, Scott P. (MA)
Burr, Richard (NC)
Vitter, David (LA)
Collins, Susan M. (ME)
Boozman, John (AR)
Rubio, Marco (FL)
BANKING
Johnson, Tim (SD), Chairman
Reed, Jack (RI)
Schumer, Charles E. (NY)
Menendez, Robert (NJ)
Akaka, Daniel K. (HI)
Brown, Sherrod (OH)
Tester, Jon (MT)
Kohl, Herb (WI)
Warner, Mark R. (VA)
Merkley, Jeff (OR)
Marshall, Elaine (NC)
Carnahan, Robin (MO)
Romanoff, Andrew (CO)
Shelby, Richard C. (AL), Ranking Member
Crapo, Mike (ID)
Corker, Bob (TN)
DeMint, Jim (SC)
Vitter, David (LA)
Johanns, Mike (NE)
Hutchison, Kay Bailey (TX)
Castle, Michael (DE)
Toomey, Pat (PA)
Hoeven, John (ND)
BUDGET
Conrad, Kent (ND), Chairman
Murray, Patty (WA)
Wyden, Ron (OR)
Feingold, Russell D. (WI)
Byrd, Robert C. (WV)
Nelson, Bill (FL)
Stabenow, Debbie (MI)
Cardin, Benjamin L. (MD)
Sanders, Bernard (VT)
Whitehouse, Sheldon (RI)
Warner, Mark R. (VA)
Merkley, Jeff (OR)
Begich, Mark (AK)
Sessions, Jeff (AL), Ranking Member
Grassley, Chuck (IA)
Enzi, Michael B. (WY)
Crapo, Mike (ID)
Ensign, John (NV)
Cornyn, John (TX)
Graham, Lindsey (SC)
Alexander, Lamar (TN)
Coats, Dan (IN)
Moran, Jerry (KS)
COMMERCE
Rockefeller, John D. (WV), Chairman
Inouye, Daniel K. (HI)
Kerry, John F. (MA)
Boxer, Barbara (CA)
Nelson, Bill (FL)
Cantwell, Maria (WA)
Lautenberg, Frank R. (NJ)
Pryor, Mark L. (AR)
McCaskill, Claire (MO)
Klobuchar, Amy (MN)
Udall, Tom (NM)
Warner, Mark R. (VA)
Begich, Mark (AK)
Blumenthal, Richard (CT)
Hutchison, Kay Bailey (TX), Ranking Member
Snowe, Olympia J. (ME)
Ensign, John (NV)
DeMint, Jim (SC)
Thune, John (SD)
Wicker, Roger F. (MS)
Isakson, Johnny (GA)
Vitter, David (LA)
Johanns, Mike (NE)
Hoeven, John (ND)
Paul, Rand (KY)
Lee, Mike (UT)
ENERGY
Bingaman, Jeff (NM), Chairman
Wyden, Ron (OR)
Johnson, Tim (SD)
Landrieu, Mary L. (LA)
Cantwell, Maria (WA)
Menendez, Robert (NJ)
Sanders, Bernard (VT)
Stabenow, Debbie (MI)
Udall, Mark (CO)
Shaheen, Jeanne (NH)
Fisher, Lee (OH)
Carnahan, Robin (MO)
Marshall, Elaine (NC)
Murkowski, Lisa (AK), Ranking Member
Barrasso, John (WY)
Risch, James E. (ID)
McCain, John (AZ)
Sessions, Jeff (AL)
Corker, Bob (TN)
Toomey, Pat (PA)
Hoeven, John (ND)
Lowden, Sue (NV)
Lee, Mike (UT)
ENVIRONMENT
Boxer, Barbara (CA), Chairman
Baucus, Max (MT)
Carper, Thomas R. (DE)
Lautenberg, Frank R. (NJ)
Cardin, Benjamin L. (MD)
Sanders, Bernard (VT)
Klobuchar, Amy (MN)
Whitehouse, Sheldon (RI)
Udall, Tom (NM)
Merkley, Jeff (OR)
Gillibrand, Kirsten E. (NY)
Inhofe, James M. (OK), Ranking Member
Vitter, David (LA)
Barrasso, John (WY)
Crapo, Mike (ID)
Alexander, Lamar (TN)
Coats, Dan (IN)
Moran, Jerry (KS)
Paul, Rand (KY)
ETHICS
Pryor, Mark L. (AR), Chairman
Boxer, Barbara (CA)
Brown, Sherrod (OH)
Roberts, Pat (KS), Ranking Member
Isakson, Johnny (GA)
Risch, James E. (ID)
FINANCE
Baucus, Max (MT), Chairman
Rockefeller, John D. (WV)
Conrad, Kent (ND)
Bingaman, Jeff (NM)
Kerry, John F. (MA)
Wyden, Ron (OR)
Schumer, Charles E. (NY)
Stabenow, Debbie (MI)
Cantwell, Maria (WA)
Nelson, Bill (FL)
Menendez, Robert (NJ)
Carper, Thomas R. (DE)
+1
Hatch, Orrin G. (UT), Ranking Member
Grassley, Chuck (IA)
Snowe, Olympia J. (ME)
Kyl, Jon (AZ)
Crapo, Mike (ID)
Roberts, Pat (KS)
Ensign, John (NV)
Enzi, Michael B. (WY)
Cornyn, John (TX)
+1
FOREIGN RELATIONS
Kerry, John F. (MA), Chairman
Feingold, Russell D. (WI)
Boxer, Barbara (CA)
Menendez, Robert (NJ)
Cardin, Benjamin L. (MD)
Casey, Robert P. (PA)
Webb, Jim (VA)
Shaheen, Jeanne (NH)
Gillibrand, Kirsten E. (NY)
Hodes, Paul (NH)
Carnahan, Robin (MO)
Lugar, Richard G. (IN), Ranking Member
Corker, Bob (TN)
Isakson, Johnny (GA)
Risch, James E. (ID)
DeMint, Jim (SC)
Barrasso, John (WY)
Wicker, Roger F. (MS)
Inhofe, James M. (OK)
HELP
Harkin, Tom (IA), Chairman
Mikulski, Barbara A. (MD)
Bingaman, Jeff (NM)
Murray, Patty (WA)
Reed, Jack (RI)
Sanders, Bernard (VT)
Brown, Sherrod (OH)
Casey, Robert P. (PA)
Hagan, Kay R. (NC)
Merkley, Jeff (OR)
Franken, Al (MN)
Romanoff, Andrew (CO)
Blumenthal, Richard (CT)
Enzi, Michael B. (WY), Ranking Member
Alexander, Lamar (TN)
Isakson, Johnny (GA)
McCain, John (AZ)
Hatch, Orrin G. (UT)
Murkowski, Lisa (AK)
Coburn, Tom (OK)
Roberts, Pat (KS)
Boozman, John (AR)
Lowden, Sue (NV)
HOMELAND SECURITY
Lieberman, Joseph I. (CT), Chairman
Levin, Carl (MI)
Akaka, Daniel K. (HI)
Carper, Thomas R. (DE)
Pryor, Mark L. (AR)
Landrieu, Mary L. (LA)
McCaskill, Claire (MO)
Tester, Jon (MT)
Giannoulias, Alexi (IL)
Fisher, Lee (OH)
Collins, Susan M. (ME), Ranking Member
Coburn, Tom (OK)
Brown, Scott P. (MA)
McCain, John (AZ)
Ensign, John (NV)
Graham, Lindsey (SC)
Castle, Michael (DE)
INDIAN AFFAIRS
Cantwell, Maria (WA), Chairman
Inouye, Daniel K. (HI)
Conrad, Kent (ND)
Akaka, Daniel K. (HI)
Johnson, Tim (SD)
Tester, Jon (MT)
Udall, Tom (NM)
Franken, Al (MN)
Barrasso, John (WY), Ranking Member
McCain, John (AZ)
Murkowski, Lisa (AK)
Coburn, Tom (OK)
Crapo, Mike (ID)
Johanns, Mike (NE)
INTELLIGENCE
Feinstein, Dianne (CA), Chairman
Rockefeller, John D. (WV)
Wyden, Ron (OR)
Mikulski, Barbara A. (MD)
Feingold, Russell D. (WI)
Nelson, Bill (FL)
Whitehouse, Sheldon (RI)
Blumenthal, Richard (CT)
Durbin, Richard (IL) , Ex Officio
Levin, Carl (MI) , Ex Officio
Coburn, Tom (OK), Vice Chairman
Hatch, Orrin G. (UT)
Snowe, Olympia J. (ME)
Chambliss, Saxby (GA)
Risch, James E. (ID)
Castle, Michael (DE)
Moran, Jerry (KS)
McConnell, Mitch (KY), Ex Officio
McCain, John (AZ), Ex Officio
JUDICIARY
Leahy, Patrick J. (VT), Chairman
Kohl, Herb (WI)
Feinstein, Dianne (CA)
Feingold, Russell D. (WI)
Schumer, Charles E. (NY)
Durbin, Richard J. (IL)
Cardin, Benjamin L. (MD)
Whitehouse, Sheldon (RI)
Klobuchar, Amy (MN)
Franken, Al (MN)
Marshall, Elaine (NC)
Grassley, Chuck (IA), Ranking Member
Hatch, Orrin G. (UT)
Sessions, Jeff (AL)
Kyl, Jon (AZ)
Graham, Lindsey (SC)
Cornyn, John (TX)
Coburn, Tom (OK)
Lowden, Sue (NV)
RULES
Schumer, Charles E. (NY), Chairman
Byrd, Robert C. (WV)
Inouye, Daniel K. (HI)
Feinstein, Dianne (CA)
Durbin, Richard J. (IL)
Nelson, Ben (NE)
Murray, Patty (WA)
Pryor, Mark L. (AR)
Udall, Tom (NM)
Warner, Mark R. (VA)
Romanoff, Andrew (CO)
Alexander, Lamar (TN), Ranking Member
McConnell, Mitch (KY)
Cochran, Thad (MS)
Chambliss, Saxby (GA)
Hutchison, Kay Bailey (TX)
Roberts, Pat (KS)
Ensign, John (NV)
Rubio, Marco (FL)
SMALL BUSINESS
Landrieu, Mary L. (LA), Chairman
Kerry, John F. (MA)
Levin, Carl (MI)
Harkin, Tom (IA)
Lieberman, Joseph I. (CT)
Cantwell, Maria (WA)
Pryor, Mark L. (AR)
Cardin, Benjamin L. (MD)
Shaheen, Jeanne (NH)
Hagan, Kay R. (NC)
Blumenthal, Richard (CT)
Snowe, Olympia J. (ME), Ranking Member
Vitter, David (LA)
Thune, John (SD)
Enzi, Michael B. (WY)
Isakson, Johnny (GA)
Wicker, Roger F. (MS)
Risch, James E. (ID)
Lee, Mike (UT)
VETERAN’S AFFAIRS
Akaka, Daniel K. (HI), Chairman
Rockefeller, John D. (WV)
Murray, Patty (WA)
Sanders, Bernard (VT)
Brown, Sherrod (OH)
Webb, Jim (VA)
Tester, Jon (MT)
Begich, Mark (AK)
Hodes, Paul (NH)
Romanoff, Andrew (CO)
Isakson, Johnny (GA), Ranking Member
Wicker, Roger F. (MS)
Johanns, Mike (NE)
Brown, Scott (MA)
Graham, Lindsey (SC)
Coats, Dan (IN)
Just a few interesting notes.
In this scenario, Tom Coburn becomes the Ranking Member on the Intelligence Committee. Tim Johnson of South Dakota would become chair of the Banking Committee (currently chaired by Dodd). As mentioned above, Jeff Sessions would become Ranking Member of Budget, while Chuck Grassley would become Ranking Member of the Judiciary, and Orrin Hatch would assume that position on Finance. Maria Cantwell would take the gavel at Indian Affairs. Lamar Alexander would replace Bob Bennett as Ranking Member of Rules. The rest of the chairs and ranking members would remain the same.
These predictions are actually quite optimistic. I have the Republicans losing seats they currently hold in New Hampshire, Ohio, and Missouri. That helps offset the loss of Democrat-held seats in North Dakota, Delaware, Arkansas, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Indiana. It’s only a net loss of three seats, leaving the split as 54 Democrats, 44 Republicans, and 2 Independents caucusing with the Democrats.
The addition of moderates John Hoeven and Michael Castle might add a touch of bipartisanship, but it would be offset by the addition of superradicals Rand Paul and Marco Rubio. The rest of the Republican freshman class would also be a particularly nasty and reality-challenged bunch.
You tell me how you see things differently and how these changes will affect what gets done (or doesn’t) in Washington DC.
I’ll give you my spreadsheets as we get closer. It’s way too far out to tell right now. We’re still 6 months away. That’s like a decade in politics.
As of right now, though?
1. Sen. Robert Bennett of Utah will be ousted in at the state party convention in favor of Mike Lee.
Agree with this.
2. John McCain will survive his primary and, whether Blanche Lincoln and Arlen Specter survive or not, the Republicans will win those seats.
I don’t agree with any of these predictions. If the elections were held today? Maybe. I don’t think this is how things will happen, though.
3. Harry Reid will lose to Sue Lowden and Dick Durbin (not Chuck Schumer) will become Majority Leader.
Disagree about Durbin taking over. Schumer will be majority leader, I haven’t been following Reid.
4. Rand Paul and Marco Rubio will win both the primaries and the general election.
Disagree. Rubio will lose the GE if Crist goes indie, giving it to Meek. Paul’s election will be a toss-up.
5. Elaine Marshall and Lee Fisher will win both the primaries and the general election.
sigh Agree with these, but I really wish I could say the opposite. I wanted Brunner to win.
6. Andrew Romanoff will defeat Michael Bennet in the primary and go on to prevail in the general.
Maybe. I think this seat will be a Dem win, though.
7. Jerry Moran will prevail in the Kansas primary and go on to win the general election.
Yep.
8. David Vitter will survive.
Yep.
9. Despite current polls, Paul Hodes, Alexi Giannoulias, and Robin Carnahan will be elected.
Agreed, especially Paul Hodes and Alexi. Carnahan will be a toss-up.
10. Michael Castle will win in Delaware, John Hoeven will win in North Dakota, Richard Blumenthal will win in Connecticut and Dan Coats will win in Indiana.
Not sure about Castle. When Biden opted out I thought he would win, but not now; it’s not as certain as I originally thought. If I were a betting man, I’d bet on Castle, though.
Do you think McCain will be defeated or that Lincoln will be reelected?
Specter is a closer call, IMO.
With the primary so far away? I think McCain is finished. Lincoln’s primary is less of a sure thing with it being so close. I wish Halter announced sooner, or that he was recruited quicker. Either way, Lincoln will not be in the Senate one way or another. If Halter wins, he could win the state. I don’t see Halter winning, though. It’s just too close for him to make any more gains.
Specter should win the primary, and I don’t think he will lose the GE.
Toomey and Hayworth are not all that great as campaigners, but Pennsylvania is definitely seeing red at the moment.
Perhaps you guys could explain to this furriner how anything will get done when the Party of NO gets at least 44 fillibustering seats, and why the US electorate would elect Obama President and then make sure he has no chance of enacting the program he was elected to implement?
As to your former question, the Senate could change the rules concerning the filibuster as its first order of business when it is seated next January. Other than that? Total gridlock.
On the latter issue, Obama won as much for his optimism and non-Bushness as for any issues he campaigned on.
Why would “centrist” Democrats agree to changing the Filibuster rules when it is those rules which gives them centre stage?
some of them won’t support such a move for just that reason, but it only requires 50 (plus VP Biden) to change the rules on the first day of a new sessions (versus 67% right now).
Fun post Booman, thanks.
Looks like folks are thinking Boxer will win in California? If so, I agree – it’s close now but I think she’ll win by a safe margin come November.
I think McCain wins his primary by the skin of his teeth. Whatever the GOP base thinks of him, he is a political icon, Palin rallied for him, and I don’t think they’ll toss him aside.
I sorta feel the same way about Specter, but PA feels more volatile, for some reason. That’s just a guess.
I agree with Seabe about Florida, it all depends on what Crist does. That said, as a former Floridian, I know that state is dumb enough to elect a nutjob like Rubio and then regret it for the next 6 years.
I think Paul might be too straight-up weird to survive the GE. But I haven’t been following that race and don’t know much about the Dem candidate he will assuredly be up against.
No idea about Majority Leader, but offhand I’d prefer Schumer for his nutcracking abilities, even though Durbin is more progressive. And even if Reid goes down, I remain pretty grateful/proud for what he’s accomplished – he got it done and he’ll make the history books for sure. At least the ones outside of Texas. 🙂
Harry Reid will be re-elected. He knows what he’s doing and the polls, when read correctly, show that his chances are much better than the pundits are saying. The Tea Party (mostly former Ron Paul supporters) and the Republicans are separate parties in NV with their own candidates and will dilute each other out in the general election. If he can hang on to the Mormons (he should be able to) and also get the newly politically active Latinos to vote against the racist Right, he’ll win. That’s why he’s pressing for the immigration debate this year. Also, by November, he should have a good list of accomplishments for the year when Sue Lowden’s just a rich blonde windbag whose empty rhetoric people will be tired of listening to by then.
Hope you’re right about that.
Also, by November, he should have a good list of accomplishments for the year when Sue Lowden’s just a rich blonde windbag whose empty rhetoric people will be tired of listening to by then.
And Palin is a windbag brunette. And we know how that’s going.
Hope you are correct and we can just enjoy the entertainment value of Sue Lowden – love her idea about bartering chickens with health care providers. I wonder if NYC health care providers will accept pigeons in lieu of chickens?
I think Specter will pull it out but that Hodes, Goulianis and Carnahan will lose. So 52 caucusing Dems.
Chris Bowers currently says it is almost impossible for Republicans to get closer than this because of the way the rest of the races stand (they need to sweep all the races AND pull off an upset over someone 10% ahead).
why do you think Hodes will lose?
I’d show you his record of fail in dramatic fashion, but I can’t figure out how to embed pollster polls.
Suffice to say: He’s done nothing but lose to Ayotte and even if you take out Rassmussen he’s still done nothing but lose to Ayotte. Maybe there will be some event happening that mixes things up, but the trend lines paint a clear picture that Hodes is a longshot to win.
It remains to be seen if Durbin has any more guts than Reid. I’d prefer Schumer.