Even as the crowds slowly grow in Lower Manhattan to protest our financial overlords, those same overlords are desperately trying to persuade New Jersey Governor Chris Christie to get into the race. They succeeded at least in getting Christie to start looking at the logistics of a campaign. And Christie’s advisors are asking at least some potential supporters to hold off endorsing anyone else until next Wednesday.
If Christie gets in, it might create the three-way race I’ve been predicting would very possibly result in a brokered convention.
Perhaps my dream ticket of Christie-Rubio will come true after all…
Regarding “fat”…
Progressives ostensibly do not like “discrimination” (which is different from racism)…
Question…which attribute is more likely to adversely effect your chances of being successful in this country…being black, or being fat (not just overweight, but obese)…
Hmmm…I’d say being really fat…it really is an oppressed minority…
In terms of electoral strategy, are there more Americans who will vote for a black candidate because they identify with him, or are there more Americans who will vote for a fat candidate because they identify with him…
Christie’s “fatness” may be an asset!
In a way this is just the Palin problem repeating itself all over again.
No, I don’t mean the usual Palin problem, but instead the problem of a candidate who very few people know anything about outside of his/her home state suddenly getting thrust into the national spotlight.
Heck, even people who are from a candidate’s home state usually don’t know that much about them. How much do you know about your state’s Governor? I barely know Colorado governor Hickenlooper – I voted for him of course (being a Democrat) and I vaguely am aware that he was considered popular in Denver and did have a lot to do with the improvements in Denver’s public transit, parks, and bike-rental programs. But if he were suddenly made a national candidate I’m sure I’d learn a ton more about him.
Well, this is what happened to Palin in 2008, and is what is happening again and again with Republican candidates. Trump is great, all that business success! – oh wait, now we’ve heard him talk about the issues – forget him. Bachman is a bona fide tea partier — oh wait, she has the brains of a Palin. Hey, Perry and the Texas miracle – he’ll be a great candidate!!! Oh, wait … now that we’ve seen the reality of what he stands for, no way. Oh, I know – that governor from New Joisey – I’ve seen a couple quotes from him – he’ll be great!!!
And then, after he’s had 3-4 weeks in the spotlight the tea partiers will see that he doesn’t subscribe to their wacky shit, and the rest of the nation will see what many in Joisey already know – that he’s just a mean, pro-rich bastard. And they’ll keep looking.
I read that Huckabee is reconsidering his decision not to run. Like he stands a snowball’s chance outside of his tea party cocoon.
The problem is that none of these guys has national credibility. and few
local or regional politicians have what it takes to survive in the national spotlight. McCain, for example, for all his problems, had been a regular on national TV news programs for many years before his run in 2008, and by 2008 he was a very well known national personality. Even Obama, although a national newcomer, had been getting national publicity dating back to his 2004 campaign and his speech at the convention that year.
So, as the GOP powers-that-be watch this slow-speed train wreck of pre-primary nominating process take place — as one-by-one the candidates rise in the polls then collapse under scrutiny — they will either have to take action or allow an unpredictable primary season to start – quite possibly losing a very winnable 2012 election because their base picks a really bad candidate.
I am guessing they will take action. What candidate do they have in the wings with national credibility, immediate fundraising power, and who can hold his (must be a male – all their strong females are on the record as pro-choice) own in debates and interviews?
Don’t count Huckabee out. He’s a VERY good speaker. And he has that no income tax thing that the rich would love.
I’ve heard he has a huge Norquist problem. Apparently he raised taxes as governor, to balance the budget–instead of lowering taxes to, erm, ‘balance’ the ‘budget.’
(But I agree that he’d be more formidable than any of this bunch …)
This is the sort of confirmation bias I expect from professional pundits. Where you get so locked into a prediction, that everything that happens can only be seen filtered through that prediction.
Isn’t it just as likely that the chaotic and fluctuating primary schedule wrecks havoc on the field, inadvertently favoring the two candidates who’ve locked in a stable fringe constituency (Romney on the Republican “left” gags and Paul on the libertarian-right) in poll after poll after poll for a year now? We don’t even know when the primary season technically starts anymore.
Romney could win New Hampshire, Florida, Nevada and Michigan before anybody even realizes precisely what’s happened, and it’d be all over early. I understand the appeal of the Romney vs. the Confederacy conflict culminating into a convention brawl, but who really knows? I could totally see Ron Paul wind up with more delegates than “true base” candidates like Bachmann and Perry and Cain in the end. Calvinball rules would seem to benefit stability and consistency, rather than any actual appeal.
Of course, it will all boil down to Romney vs. anti-Romney…Romney is Romney…who will be the ultimate anti-Romney?
Individually, I am a radical right-winger, but will be more than happy to support a candidate who can win…
In the words of the late William F. Buckley…we need the most conservative candidate who can win…
I can possibly see Boo’s scenario, in which Romney is a true RINO, Christie is half tea-partier, half RINO (i.e not a strong “social conservative”, and from the Northeast, where RINO’s rule), and Cain/Bachmann/Perry is the true tea partier…
And no one candidate can win a majority…
But we live in a polarized society…either/or…yes or no…
The true question is, if he runs, will Christie take votes from Romney (that’s what Limbaugh says), or from Perry/Cain/Bachman…
Or equally from both (Boo’s “brokered convention scenario)…
We shall see.
I think Christie could suck up enough Romney support to kill his candidacy. But if he only weakens him, it could get interesting. As for Ron Paul, he’s been polling around 10-11 percent for a while. I think he’s actually finally too old at 76 to maintain his former appeal. He and Gingrich are basically deadlocked in third, and if Christie gets in they’d be deadlocked in fourth.
Bachmann has collapsed as I assumed she would. That made a brokered convention fairly unlikely. But a new, stronger third candidate would make it real again.
Still, it won’t be easy for Christie. He probably cannot win Iowa, and New Hampshire seems like a long-shot. South Carolina and Nevada don’t seem too promising either. His first real shot might be Florida, but remember when Giuliani tried to wait for Florida?
The schedule is not friendly to a Republican from the Mid-Atlantic.
True…but Christie is no ordinary Mid-Atlantic Republican…
Anyone who proclaims to know what will happen are similar to baseball experts who assumed my Red Sox, and (secondarily) my Braves were assured of Wild-Card berths…
BTW…Ron Paul is a non-factor…
I voted for Paul for President in ’88…I was a purist Libertarian…and he was the Libertarian Party candidate…
Every one of his supporters knows he will not win, that his candicacy is about “moving the needle” by publicizing his ideas…and I respect that…Paul realized he would have a more significant impact on American political dialogue by running as a Republican Libertarian than by running as a Libertarian…
But his votes will be claimed by someone else…
As a libertarian-type, if Cain gains more traction (i.e. Republican voters start to believe he can win), Cain will be the beneficiary of those votes
Ron Paul is a non-factor? He seems to be getting a lot of attention here for a guy who “can’t win.” Or did I miss all of Booman’s coverage of Jon Huntsman?
A few comments ago you were defending our financial overlords’ right to a pretzel. 500 got arrested tonight on the brooklyn bridge, a movement that’s gaining more support by the day. You, my friend, are late to the party.
something is happening, but you don’t know what it is, do you mr. booman?
Oh, snap!!
this is one of the very few times in my life that I’ve been ashamed of the NYPD.
Brilliant comments about Christie’s entrance into the race.
Oh, wait.
The most important thing to Protest People is their self-image as Protest People.
Oh, look, a guy on the internet thinks he has an excuse to act superior to another guy on the internet. Priorities!
Oh, look, a guy on the internet thinks he has an excuse to act superior to another guy on the internet. Priorities!
Are you talking about yourself?
Christie is essentially the Koch candidate, or one of the Koch candidates (Perry, Bachmann, etc). he will not necessarily be backed by Rove et al. He has, btw, lost some weight recently which some take as an indication of running for prez, though he probably was planning to wait until 2016. Used to be he couldn’t really stand up and walk in public, at least was never photographed doing so. The pix from Barack’s visit to Patterson are the first pix I’ve seen of him walking without holding on to a piece of furniture. He may appear to be a tough talker, but he’s actually just a bully. Pretty much following the instructions of his Koch overlords as far as governing goes, maybe adding a few of his own opinions when mouthing off. If he won, I wonder if the USA could just live inside a paper bag for the subsequent 4 yrs, or at least wear a bag over our heads when participating in international events. (I guess it wouldn’t matter if a Koch candidate wins, the Kochs could destroy the country within a year or so)
Welcome in, Christine Jr./Kimmie.
Envision the possibilites, brethren and sistren!
J. Edgar Hoover in the White House. Three times as large and rarin’ To go!!!
I wonder…d’ya think they make paper doll cutouts in extra/extra large?
Just askin’…
I’m tempted to support him just for the potential yuks.
YUCK!!!
AG
I don’t think Christie would produce the third-party run you’ve been talking about.
He’s a talented-enough pol, and the tea party crowd is sufficiently easy to manipulate, for him to be able to keep them in line.
Me, I’m looking forward to headlines like:
“Christie jumps into race, creates tidal wave of support”
and, a week or two later:
“Oh the humanity! Giant gasbag crashes and burns in New Jersey”