Romney is going to win Ohio. I don’t think it will be close enough for an automatic recount. The next question to ask is where Romney and Santorum will win again. Look at the schedule for the rest of the month. I am going to make the following assumptions:
1. Romney will win in all U.S. territories because people living in Guam and the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico are moderate and not susceptible to religious or Southern messaging.
2. Gingrich will continue to win in the Deep South.
3. Santorum will win in areas contiguous with areas he has already won.
March 10
Guam Caucuses 9 delegates- Romney
Kansas Caucuses 40 delegates- Santorum
Northern Marianas Islands Caucuses 9 delegates- Romney
Virgin Islands Caucuses 9 delegates- RomneySantorum will be pleased to win another state, but he can’t be too optimistic about the next contests.
March 13
Alabama Primary 50 delegates- Gingrich
American Samoa Caucuses 9 delegates- Romney
Hawaii Caucuses 20 delegates- Romney
Mississippi Primary 40 delegates- GingrichThis provides a shutout for Santorum, blunting his momentum, and a big win for Gingrich, reviving his campaign. Romney’s wins will be announced in the middle of the night and won’t mean anything for the narrative. Of course, all delegates are valuable.
March 17
Missouri Caucuses » 52 delegates- SantorumSantorum already won the primary in Missouri. He will probably win the caucus. This will keep the race from moving decisively in any direction.
March 18
Puerto Rico Caucuses 23 delegates- RomneyRomney continues to win skirmishes.
March 20
Illinois Primary 69 delegates- ?????March 24
Louisiana Primary 46 delegates- ?????
It’s really going to come down to Illinois, I think. If Romney can win Illinois, he’ll have a good chance of getting a majority of the delegates and accepting the nomination in Tampa. But if Santorum wins Illinois then Romney’s chances get very dicey. Also, will Santorum be able to breakthrough against Gingrich in Louisiana due to his more longstanding Catholicism? Or will Newt make a clean sweep of the Deep South?
Remember, it helps Romney to have both Santorum and Gingrich in the race, but it can also work against him. He still needs to win a majority of the delegates. If Gingrich is winning in the South and Santorum is winning in the Border States and Midwest, then Romney can’t do better than a plurality of the delegates.
the key is really Texas. Romney is likely to win California and New Jersey in June, so to stop him the place with the delegates is Texas. If the stop Romney forces can win Texas and Gingrich can wrap up Alabama and Mississippi, and Paul can put some delegates away in a few places Romney may very well wind up 200 delegates or so short.
This is still not over.
Rank and file Republicans do not Romney to be the nominee.
Yes, Romney will probably bank all of the delegates from California, New Jersey, and Utah which are all winner-take-all states at the end of the calendar. So, he doesn’t need to be over 50% leading up to that. What is the absolute number he needs? I guess we can figure that out. But he also needs to sustain himself so that he actually wins California and New Jersey.
And, yes, Texas is a big Republican state with a ton of delegates. So, it’s very important.
Illinois is another classic Romney state. Just like Michigan and Ohio. He only wins the big city counties, and gets blown out in the rest of the state. Suburban Chicago will carry him home.
He ices the nomination in April with the Wisconsin and Maryland primaries.
Also, y’all are fucking nuts to have been watching election returns over Justified tonight.
Romney’s pattern of victory is nearly identical to Obama’s in terms of looking at a county-by-county basis. He wins cities and college towns, and loses everywhere else.
The state-by-state pattern is much different, however. Obama won Iowa and South Carolina, while losing New Hampshire, while Romney did the opposite.
Is it good or bad that Romney does best in the counties where Obama does best and worst in the counties where Obama did worst?
I guess that means enthusiasm is the key. If Romney can turn out the base, he’s is good shape. I think that means that the VP choice is critical and will have to excite the base without throwing away the middle.
He’s a robotic RINO whose sole base is a religious minority group. I honestly have no idea what he is/isn’t capable of in November. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him win 37% of the vote. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him win 47% of the vote. And anywhere in between.
Prawly they should DEBATE!
I live in Illinois, and I don’t see how Santorum could possibly win here. And I say that as someone who lives 100+ miles south of chicago.
He won Iowa and Minnesota, won the primary in Missouri and is favored in the polls in Wisconsin. I think he has a chance In Illinois, although he certainly shouldn’t be favored.
Illinois is my home state where I reside. I think Santorium has a slight chance in Illinois. There are plenty of religious conservatives and rural areas. Santorum may play very well in places like Peoria, Springfield, & Bloomington too. The GOP is not that organized here since the legislature and state offices are primarily Democratic. In 2010, the “chosen” Republican candidates for Governor, who were moderates, lost in their primary to state Senator Brady, a “downstate” conservative. If Illinois did not have Chicago, we would be more like Missouri or Indiana-but we do have Chicago!
Seems to have escaped the notice of the major news orgs, but Santorum took the Colorado caucuses tonight.
There was a caucas in COLORADO on Tuesday? I don’t think they told anyone.
Well I still say the focus by my TV’s talking heads on the OH popular vote is badly placed. For a popular vote so close between those two, Romney appears to pick up a good edge on delegates. That is the kind of thing he needed to do across a number of states today.
To paraphrase what you said Booman, to be on track to win the nomination, on any given primary day Romney needs to pick up a majority of delegates and not just a plurality. I don’t know yet where he stands today as I’ve only just started playing with the delegate math.
Because in OH Romney and Santorum are so close to a tie, the leader will get 8 at-large+bonus delegates and the second placer will get 7.
Romney looks to be the winner in 10 CDs and Santorum only in 6. Normally that would mean Romney with 30 CD delegates and Santorum 18, but of course Santorum’s organization botched getting delegates fully slated.
At best for Santorum he loses the delegate count 38-25. Hopefully for him, his incomplete slates were in districts going to Romney anyway. But obviously he could end up doing worse than this result.
http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/ballot-2012/2012/03/05/rick-santorum-could-miss-out-on-key-ohio-del
egates
Romney cleaned up in Massachusetts, Virginia, and Idaho. He won a majority of the delegates tonight.
It doesn’t matter for delegates, but put an asterisk by VA. No one but Paul was on the ballot. No momentum from VA, MA or VT.
I think Paul might have made a mistake in not contesting VA. From the exit polls and the results, he might have had a chance if he spent some $$ there.
You know, the one part of the discussion that I’ve not read much about is the fact that Romney is making a clean sweep of the States that are likely to vote Democratic in the actual election. The States that are a lock for the GOP he loses consistently. That’s good for Obama.
Isn’t that good news for Romney?
Because any Republican candidate, even him, will win the GOP-lock states in the general. But he’ll be more competitive in the non-lock states, which is what’s necessary for a win?
(That said, the biggest takeaway for me is what an awful candidate Romney is. Fighting a war of attrition against–I can’t believe I’m typing this–Gingrinch and Santorum is bad enough. But he’s fighting a war of attrition against them and he’s got them massively outgunned. It’s the opposite of Shock and Awe. It’s Shucks and Aw.)
Well, this is partially why I’d like to read something of an analysis by someone with more time to study it than me. I would think that it’s a sign that he can depend on low turnout from the base. You have a point to be sure but the whole GOP strategy for 30+ years has been predicated on a high turnout in the base, and Obama can flip some Southern states like NC and TN (others possibly too) if Romney doesn’t inspire.
Romney is the worst candidate I’ve seen in my lifetime. I remember Dukakis being pretty poor, but I was younger so I don’t know, really, how he compares. Romney has a 28-1 spending advantage I just read. Wow.
I don’t believe Gingrich will continue to win in the Deep South. Gingrich has won (a) Georgia and (b) a state bordering Georgia. Even if you think this race isn’t over, it’s over for him.
I dont think Gingrich is in it to win though. He is still in it to wreck it for everyone else. One could only speculate how his vote would split between santorum and Rmoney if Gingrich threw in the towel.
I agree that Santorum should run well in Missibama. Gingrich won South Carolina because he threw everything in there. But the Sweater Vest of the Blessed Virgin does seem a better bet for most evangelical voters. Gingrich can’t camp out in Missibama, so the voters will have to go with the guts.
And there guts are nuts.
And so is the Sweater Vest of the Blessed Virgin.
Two things. Last night John Harwood was reporting there was a reason to believe that Santorum’s team was asking activists to talk Gingrich into quitting. If Gingrich’s hatred of Mitt is strong enough he just might fold in the name of pissiness.
Then there’s the issue of the recently discovered tapes of Mitt’s support of Federal mandate on health insurance. It reopens an original door for confrontation and substantial hits on Romney. Santorum may be just the guy to want to grasp that carrot and fight with it.
Course Santorum would have to lose the whole b