Remember back when this government shutdown started and the Republicans had so many ambitions? They were going to defund ObamaCare, or at least delay the individual mandate for a year. They were going to introduce a “conscience clause” that would allow employers to deny their workers access to contraception. They were going to compel the administration to bypass the deliberative process at the State Department and preemptively license the Keystone XL pipeline. They were going to gut coal-ash regulations and expand offshore drilling. They were going to get fast track authority for tax reform legislation based on Rep. Paul Ryan’s principles. They were going to cripple the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and rip apart the Dodd-Frank Wall Street reforms. They’d means-test Medicare and finally get tort reform. They had these dreams and many more besides.
But where are we now? All the various deals and negotiations have collapsed, and it’s down to a one-on-one between Reid and McConnell.
Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, the majority leader, and Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican leader, spoke cordially by telephone but remained deadlocked. The stumbling block is over spending levels, the length of a debt ceiling increase and how long a temporary spending measure should keep the government open until a longer-term budget deal can be reached.
Translation: the talks are about how much new spending will be added to the sequester, how much the borrowing limit will be expanded, and how much time will be covered under the continuing resolution.
Further translation: the Republicans aren’t even asking for anything on their wish-list anymore.
Which is as it should be, because they never offered the Democrats a damn thing in return.
Republicans reacted with frustration over what they saw as the shifting demands of a Democratic leadership intent on inflicting maximum damage on adversaries sinking in the polls and increasingly isolated.
“The Democrats keep moving the goal posts,” Senator Susan Collins, Republican of Maine and a lead negotiator, said Sunday. “Decisions within the Democratic conference are constantly changing.”
But Democratic aides said a deal taking shape among a bipartisan group of senators offered Democrats nothing beyond a reopening of the government and temporary assurances that the government will not default in the coming days. Those should be seen not as concessions but as basic obligations of Congress, they say.
How many times have I heard this president be criticized for giving the store away? I think all that talk is almost as delusional as the ambitions the Republicans took into this showdown. Back in 2011, during the last debt ceiling fiasco, the Republicans had the ability and the motivation to cripple the economy to such a degree that the president probably could not have been reelected. Would they have actually done it?
I guess we’ll never know, but who can blame the president for being unwilling to hand that decision to his political opponents? All he ever asked was for a balanced approach that included some new tax revenue, and his opponents have not yet ever come close to taking ‘yes’ for an answer if it required violating their pledge to Grover Norquist. What we got instead was sequestration. That was the only way the Republicans could keep some of the president’s concessions without making any of their own. In order to get the president to give away the store, they had to eschew most of what they said they really wanted and appropriate with a sledgehammer that removed all discretion, wisdom, and values from the system.
And where has it gotten them?
Now they are competing with shingles and herpes for popularity. Now they are hopelessly divided and business leaders are furious with them. And they’re back to square one, facing budget negotiations that will no longer allow them to pocket gains without making concessions. They will have to spell out what they want, which appears to be to diminish the value of their base’s earned benefits in return for agreeing to raise their base’s taxes.
Good luck with that.
Also at the Washington Monthly.
What comes out at a minimum to be a Democratic victory should be:
Full Fiscal Year appropriations that run to 9/30/2014.
Return to the regular budget process and schedule and maybe even have penalties for playing around with the budget process (not sure what that would look like)
Debt ceiling authorization sufficient to cover the appropriations.
Mechanism to ensure that debt ceiling never becomes at issue again. Gephardt amendment or repeal.
How Democrats could run up the score:
Ending the sequester
Doing something to deal with Medicaid extension and other games states have been playing
Increase in Social Security payments
Increase in minimum wage
Financial transfer tax
Any additional that makes the exercise a definite loss for the “moderates” who collaborated with the crazies helps prevent a recurrence.
How about some judges?
Well there is Janet Yellen’s appointment.
This dude seems to understand Eric Cantor’s game.
Your first three items are just common sense and very doable. Reestablish the precedent that regular order and legislative bargaining determines the budget and its components. I doubt #4 would pass at this time. Emphasize negotations will begin after government opens and the debt ceiling is raised. If R’s want changes to the medical device tax or anything else, this must be done after, not before government opens. And sequester changes must be part of the potential trade offs. Just getting back to the basics and fair bargaining will be a huge win and put Dems on solid footing.
I like your big thinking here, THD. The continuing, chaotic collapse of the Repugs will open up vast new potentials to claim and recreate. New memes are just around the corner to focus the public’s mind on the new paradigms. How long before the people come to the simple understanding, for example, that Billionaires are so last Millennium? Sports fields have boundaries and the game of rapacious wealth accumulation should too. It’s really simple, isn’t it?
Yes, and I could swear I hear the wheels clicking into place at the ACA website where in short order even a Rep can go and figure out how to sign up for insurance. Once that’s done, and hopefully it’s done this week, the Rep may want to return to ranting about the sign up fiasco, but that window will have closed.
Oh please let us win back the House, keep the Senate and get some real work done on Climate Change!
Why wasn’t this TESTED? What amateur clowns developed this software? I’m sure they were politically connected, but couldn’t they have hired COMPETENT PROFESSIONAL developers? Or did they just hire the cheapest H1-B’s they could find?
Karma’s a bitch.
People are so pissed at us over this bullshit. And rightfully so.
I’m expecting that this will convince some other nations to call for ending the dollar’s reign as the reserve currency. I also expect the Republicans to blame Obama for that if it were to happen before the 2016 election.
China already has, I heard it on the news yesterday. Either Bloomberg or WCPT-FM , I can’t remember which. I listen to both on the way to work, switching at the commercials.
Well maybe they should try talking to these creepy ass crackers.
I am not as optimistic as Booman. Time is running out in the senate. The hang up appears to be on the length of the CR. Dems want a longer debt ceiling extension, but they want a short CR like the one they passed. The reason is that on January 15, 2014, the budget number will automatically decrease from the 988 to 967. They want to avoid that because the Republican’s plan has been to offer sequestration relief but no revenue in exchange for changes in the mandatory spending-social security and medicare. That lower budget takes away leverage the dems believe they have in the bargaining process even though both sides want to deal with sequestration. The Senate Repulicans are aware of this and McConnell wants to hold firm.
If any measure can’t be fast tracked, then we have the usual cloture time periods. And the house now is trying to be playing beat the clock with the senate. Per R Costa of NRO, who has done great reporting from the house Republican caucus, they are discussing this as their latest proposal:
Robert Costa @robertcostaNRO 1h
package (so far): 6-wk DL ext, Lankford bill on shutdowns, income verification for O’care applicants, Vitter amdt
Notice there is no CR or provision to open the government. The Lankerford bill, as best I can tell is some kind of penalty when no budget agreement is reached but avoids shut downs. But, don’t quote me because I haven’t read it.
There was huge blow up this morning when the house met. WAPO had a very good blow by blow. Paul Ryan went nuts and from the article as described by some present:
“But instead of absorbing this painful reality, some rank-and-file Republicans grew visibly excited about the prospect of opposing such a deal, said one person in the room. This defiance was fed by Ryan, who stood up and railed against the Collins proposal, saying the House could not accept either a debt-limit bill or a government-funding measure that would delay the next fight until the new year.
According to two Republicans familiar with the exchange, Ryan argued that the House would need those deadlines as “leverage” for delaying the health-care law’s individual mandate and adding a “conscience clause” — allowing employers and insurers to opt out of birth-control coverage if they find it objectionable on moral or religious grounds — and mentioned tax and entitlement goals Ryan had focused on in a recent op-ed in the Wall Street Journal.
Ryan’s speech appeared only to further rile up the conservative wing of the GOP conference, which has been agitating the shutdown strategy to try to tear apart the health-care law.”
With such fervor still rampant among House Republicans, there was bipartisan agreement in the Senate that Boehner’s House had lost its ability to approve anything that could be signed by Obama into law. Republicans decided the Senate must act first, hoping that the pressure of the Thursday debt deadline would lead to the House passing the measure even if it meant just a small collection of the GOP’s House majority joined with the Democratic minority to approve a deal.”
Per Costa through his tweets today, the far right house members were embolden by the Cruz, Lee and Palin march today and were sure that was a game changer.
I am very nervous as to how this can all come together by Wednesday at midnight. Her is the link to the WAPO article.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/boehner-tells-house-gop-negotiations-have-ended/2013/10/12/fa
0d3f42-334a-11e3-9c68-1cf643210300_story_2.html
Costa is spinning in his reporting, trying to help cover for them. So there is that. He’s keeping them high.
I don’t think Costa is spinning. I think he is talking to aides and not reps who are spinning. But Ezra Klein just posted on Wonk Blog the same info about the deal from the house. I am pretty sure he got it from Costa’s twitter but he has more info on the Lankford bill. He was tweeting simultaneously from the caucus meeting on of the house on Friday. No idea who his source is. I can see that he can be used as a toll to get info out.
“If two or more persons in any State or Territory, or in any place subject to the jurisdiction of the United States, conspires to oppose by force the authority of, or prevent, hinder, or delay the execution of any law of the United States, they shall each be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than twenty years, or both.” 18 USC § 2384
http://www.politicususa.com/2013/10/12/koch-brothers-seditious-shutdown-conspiracy-20-years-prison.h
tml
or prevent, hinder, or delay by force…
Else you prohibit normal political behavior.
The author of the article writes: “The fact that states voted to arrest federal officials attempting to enforce the health law, coupled with the growing threats of armed violence against the government due to the health law’s enactment meets the definition of ‘by force’ …”
I don’t know if any of the above was ever carried out. It was certainly threatened:
http://democurmudgeon.blogspot.com/2012/11/nullification-pushed-by-wisconsin-tea.html
http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2012/12/17/south-carolina-lawmakers-propose-5-year-jail-sentence
-for-obamacare-implementation
Posted by Scott Rothschild on November 16, 2012 at 12:31 p.m.
Group says a number of Kansas Republicans support legislation authorizing the arrest of federal officials who implement Obamacare
Twenty Republicans who are either already serving in the Kansas Legislature, or will be sworn into office in January, say they would support legislation to “nullify” the Affordable Care Act and authorize state and local law enforcement to arrest federal officials attempting to implement it, according to a survey compiled by a group called Campaign for Liberty.
The question from Campaign for Liberty, which was founded by U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, was “Will you support legislation to nullify ObamaCare and authorize state and local law enforcement to arrest federal officials attempting to implement the unconstitutional health care scheme known as ObamaCare?”
I started calling some of those who answered `Yes’ to that question, and the first one I reached was state Rep. Jim Howell, R-Derby.
Howell said he is an ardent opponent of the federal Affordable Care Act and would do everything legislatively possible to prevent its implementation but he said he disagreed with the part of the question that dealt with authorizing state and local law enforcement to arrest federal officials to implement the law.
“That is not worded well,” Howell said. He said during the course of the campaign, he did not remember responding to that particular survey.
State Rep.-elect Allan Rothlisberg, R-Junction City, also said he was vehemently opposed to the ACA, but the part of the question dealing with arresting federal officials was not something he would support. “Not arrest them but we are just not going to assist them,” he said.
Campaign for Liberty is already in trouble with the law.
http://pageonekentucky.com/2010/06/30/fec-investigating-pauls-campaign-for-liberty/
And, BTW, this would have criminalized the Underground Railroad and the Freedom Riders.
A bad law does not invalidate the supremacy of the law.
I support civil disobedience in a worthy cause, but the fact that it is moral doesn’t make it legal. Eventually those laws were revoked.
Cliche, but I’m feelin’ it right now – give ’em hell, Harry!
See also this poignant observation from one of Andrew Sullivan’s readers:
http://dish.andrewsullivan.com/2013/10/13/is-palin-invoking-lockes-right-of-rebellion/
I also think they are revolting.
I am not the fittest of people but I think I can take a 60 year old guy screaming about Agenda 21.
Honestly, I do not think the long-term prognosis for the Tea Party looks very good.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/in-budget-and-debt-fight-white-house-finds-unlikely-a
lliance-in-business-community/2013/10/11/5840060e-32a0-11e3-8627-c5d7de0a046b_story.html
It’s so hard to see that relationship between Republicans and big business ever really breaking – goes all the way back to Hoover in the 20’s, at least. But I guess if anything could break it, it’s threatening the full faith and credit of the United States. But maybe it’s possible in a worst-case scenario for the GOP, at this point.
I like your optimism, anyway.
There’s nothing in there that suggests they want to break their relationship with the Republican Party. Just to cut the Tea Party down to size. They are talking about the possibility of primarying Tea Party candidates, just like the Tea Party has been primarying the more moderate republicans the last few elections. If they did that, the shoe would be on the other foot in many districts.
I see. But what possible motivation can they give the rabid crazed base to vote for a more moderate candidate?
I read something the other day that only 40% of Republicans identify as Tea Party. Then there are independents who lean Republican. Of course, in many CD’s, especially the South, that won’t be enough. But in some it probably would be.
Recent Gallup poll show identification as a Tea Party supporter to be at near-record low.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/164648/tea-party-support-dwindles-near-record-low.aspx
I wouldn’t take that at face value. The term “Tea Party” means different things to different people, and of course has picked up various positive and negative connotations along the way.
The Tea Party heros actually have a lot of minor disagreements among themselves: Cruz, Rubio, Paul, Paul Jr, Palin, etc. Like fascism, there isn’t a single document that anyone can reference that defines “tea party” … so it’s sometimes hard to pin down.
However, there are certain common elements – a respect for authoritarianism (of the right kind), a strong racial identity, and generally sexist. And on those elements the large majority of rank-and-file GOP still identify.
The truth is, GOP rank-and-file attitudes toward the Tea Party remain largely unexplored.
I also think they are changing. If you heard little open criticism of the TP from the “establishment”, you certainly did not hear it from GOP voters. We would hear Karl Rove and others complaining about this or that, but open criticism was muted. Now it’s coming to a head.
http://www.policymic.com/articles/24766/karl-rove-takes-on-the-tea-party-to-save-the-gop-from-itself
Recently retired Ohio Republican congressman and Boehner loyalist Steve LaTourette wrote in the Washington Post: “Thirty to 40 other members of the House, … believe their only responsibility as a member of Congress is to show up and vote “no.” Frankly, they take such a dim view of their job that a trained monkey could do what they do. And, sadly, the situation is becoming one in which the monkeys are running the zoo.”
http://www.republicanmainstreet.org/2013/09/latourette-in-the-washington-post-dont-blame-boehner/
As far as the differences and factionalism within the so-called Tea Party, I am much more aware of that. There are also significant regional differences, with the Tea Party being weaker in the northeast and Great Lakes region than in the south and some western states.I predict that the more pressure they feel, the more significant these differences will become.
I am sure questions about the unity of the GOP will get more attention from now on. I’ve seen more discussion of the question in the last week or two than over the last three years. That is a good sign in itself.
The tensions between the Tea Party and the “old guard” are very real. What is not clear is how happy rank-and-file Republicans really are with the Tea Party and how much support he old guard can muster.
In the meantime, here is a recent article that addresses this question:
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-abcarian-tea-party-republicans-20131009,0,3839032.story
And you’ve got to read this:
http://www.newrepublic.com/article/115171/shutdown-2013-deal-will-end-it
Yep.
And some of us told you, with total confidence, not only that this was the strategy but that this would be the result.
Why would they bother with giving the “rabid crazed base” any motivation?
This is the GOP we’re talking about! If they don’t like how people vote, their first reaction is to SUPPRESS their vote.
It’s a skill that they have honed over many years, and now the USSC has given them free rein.
“They will have to spell out what they want, which appears to be to diminish the value of their base’s earned benefits in return for agreeing to raise their base’s taxes.”
I can’t believe the GOP has been able to get away with their radical budget agenda for YEARS. I certainly do hope that regular order on the budget will provide reams of effective material for our 2014 and 2016 campaigns.
The public must force the Republicans to turn away from their entire toxic platform.
Yes, the ship of reason must right itself, or be righted, inevitably. Or to use another metaphor, the GOP’s parade of lies has to come to an end.
“The Democrats keep moving the goal posts,” Senator Susan “Pot” Collins, Republican of Maine and a lead negotiator, said Sunday. “Decisions within the
Democratic conferenceKettle areconstantly changingcompletely black.“>I think all that talk is almost as delusional as the ambitions the Republicans took into this showdown.
I would dearly love to be proven delusional and I’ll gleefully come back here and eat crow (or frogs legs) if Obama gets through his term without cutting social security or medicare. More than once a day I email, call and post-mail him, Biden, all my reps, the DNC and DCCC. I’m doing everything I can to increase the chances of proving myself delusional.
However, I’m still quite afraid that I may wind up being right. That said, these last few days have been somewhat hopeful.
You are using the wrong measuring stick.
The president isn’t an long-term debt denialist, and he doesn’t think he should and really even can kick the can down the road to the next president.
He wants to tinker with Medicare and Social Security because they both need to be put on a more solid long-term footing, and because he can’t get the revenue he wants for his priorities unless he makes a deal with the Republicans.
If he fails to cut a deal, you might be happy but it won’t remove the problem and a future president will make a deal under more fiscal and political pressure.
So far, he has never had a partner who would give him or the American people a fair deal. But, now that he has brought the GOP to their knees and they are crying ‘uncle,’ he has much better prospects for getting a good deal.
The progressive position has been to oppose a Grand Bargain because they could sense that no decent deal was going to be on offer. Some progressives are just absolutists in a mirror image of the Norquist pledgers. Maybe you are one of them. But, did you realize that the president’s Chained CPI offer would not only raise marginal tax rates but it would put more money in the pockets of people over 85? Details matter. You should pay closer attention to them.
How many times has he done exactly that? This isn’t over yet. He even uses the words “Social Security and Medicare reform” as if Social Security and Medicare were somehow corrupt.
Remember, the enemy of your enemy is not your friend. Obama, Durbin, Harry Reid and the other Blue Dogs are not my friends.
“How many times has he done exactly that? “
I don’t know. You tell me.
I can’t count them all.