Brian Beutler’s analysis mirrors mine, although he puts more focus on the “neo-Confederate fantasists” who seem to have no idea how badly they have been beaten. Noam Scheiber’s analysis also mirrors mine, although he adds an interesting wrinkle that I hadn’t really considered.
McConnell and Boehner, in addition to understanding how badly the Tea Partiers have hurt their party, have yet another reason to sue for peace. McConnell is facing a Tea Party primary challenge in his re-election campaign. Boehner has been repeatedly embarrassed by the Tea Partiers in his caucus, who have actively sabotaged his leadership (egged on/manipulated by Texas Senator Ted Cruz). Both men know their side has lost. Both men also know their party’s fanatics are to blame. Do you think they don’t want to see the Tea Party humiliated before all is said and done? Do you think they might want to see the Tea Partiers stuck with all the blame?
At the very least, it’s hard to believe they’ll fight too hard against any deal that accomplishes those goals. As I say, those intra-party rifts are a bummer.
I don’t know about Boehner because, at this point, he seems like roadkill. But, McConnell wants to get reelected and he is caught on flypaper having to preside over this humiliating capitulation. His only possible out is to really put the blame on the Tea Party (and Ted Cruz) for pursuing a stupid strategy. Since he has lost all hope of out-righting his primary challenger, he can only hope to discredit the whole movement. This will amplify the already simmering internecine war between moderates and radicals and the House and Senate Republicans.
One last point. I think the Republican majority in the House is now broken and it only exists on paper. Any new Speaker should represent the true majority, which will be the majority that votes to raise the debt ceiling and open the government.
“One last point. I think the Republican majority in the House is now broken and it only exists on paper.”
But if that’s so, and it certainly ought to be, then why couldn’t Boehner weather out the storm? Who could they replace him with, that would satisfy both sides? Cantor?
There will be a lot of sound and fury around Boehner. The Tea Party will demand his head, but the party loyalists and big $$$ bags will have every reason to defend him, including defending against the challenge from the right that is certainly coming.
Boehner can probably weather the storm since he never broke with the Tea Party until he absolutely had to. But he’s so discredited that there is no real point in continuing. Resignation is a real possibility.
Discredited with the Tea Party, sure. But his creds with the more traditional Republicans would be great. He’d be trailing clouds of glory (for doing what had to be done).
The problem I’m having with Boehner’s giving up the speakership is … who would replace him? After the upcoming vote or votes, would it be possible for ANY House Republican to emerge as “neutral”?
I suggested maybe Cantor for the simple reason that Cantor is a chameleon … an establishment guy who has managed to do a good imitation of a Tea Partier … more or less … but even he’s going to have to vote. Maybe he’ll be “strategically” allowed to vote with the Teabaggers.
I’m not sure this party’s going to be big enough for both factions after this.
You are missing something important. Very few people are savvy enough to give credit to Boehner for leading the Tea Partiers down this path. Boehner is going to be blamed by almost everyone, on both sides of this argument.
Do you think this hapless “conservative” drunk was really that Machiavellian? He seems not to be able to figure out child-proof caps or door locks.
It seems the whole “brand” has just had shutdown shit smeared all over it as a result of this defunding stunt–to the extent there really is any light between the Tea party and the supposedly “sane” conservatives in the imagined “majority”.
I’ll await the actual vote in the House in order to (finally) see all these theoretical Repub fault lines….
I’m wondering if this might not be kind of representative of the highly anticipated appearance of those “fault lines” in the GOP caucus?
I don’t think it’s quite that bad, but have you got any cartoons about counting unhatched chickens?
I’ll have to look for some chickens. I expect that once the first crack appears, the whole thing will quickly collapse like a sand castle on the beach.
All Boehner did was postpone the day of reckoning. He didn’t lead this charge, but he enabled it. It’s like, “if this is what you insist on doing, well, okay, but I doubt it will work.”
Why did he do it?
I don’t really know. But he never believed in it.
The trouble was, he couldn’t get a majority of his caucus for anything else.
So, whether you want to give him credit for savvy or not, most people are not going to think it was all part of the plan.
The interesting part about the shutdown was that the Republican majority took the power to end the shutdown out of Boehner’s hands and put it in Cantor’s hands.
Really? That’s interesting. Got a link?
Teddy Partridge has the clearest explanation plus a video of the floor action.
The language is convoluted so as to hide the maneuver but most analysis is that it made Cantor the arbiter of ending the shutdown.
The reporting about the unusual move has been all over the place.
That’s not very significant.
The rule change wasn’t to cut Boehner out. It was to cut off the Democrats from making mischief.
And the Rules Committee can act very quickly to change any rule they want.
And who would constitute the quorum to actually do that without Cantor’s sayso?
I’m waiting for that promised split in the House Republicans and I’m not seeing it yet. I’m seeing both House and Senate Republican still pumping out the bullshit.
As the chair, Boehner isn’t supposed to make motions anyway. He just delegated the authority to Cantor. Boehner and Cantor have been so close on this issue you couldn’t get a toothpick between them.
My point is not that Boehner looked good here, or that he really had some kind of brilliant plan. It’s that he did what he had to do and hat he could do, and the big boys are perfectly aware of that.
With Boehner I don’t even think it was so much “if this is what you insist on doing, well, okay, but I doubt it will work.” I think it was more like, “You assholes, you’re about to destroy what’s left of the fucking Republican party, but there’s nothing I can do to stop you so I’m just along for the ride — I have no choice. I can only act at the end, when you guys have run out of moves.”
The only thing I can say about Boehner is that at no point did he ever lose touch with reality, which is quite an accomplishment for a Republican these days.
That is equivalent to saying that the “establishment” GOP would make Boehner the scapegoat for the shutdown.
The Democrats certainly have.
Personally I believe Boehner has been a faithful servant to the establishment GOP all the way through this.
We’ll see whether there’s still honor among thieves. There are others who could serve as scapegoats, and who deserve it a lot more than Boehner. The one that comes first to mind is Ted Cruz, who, unlike Boehner, is despised by all the traditional Republicans.
We’ll see what happens. For now, I’m not convinced.
Mavericky McCain was on NPR this morning, warning against trying to “humiliate” Republicans because some day they will be in the majority again and will remember, ya-da, ya-da. While in the minority, Republicans have done everything possible, even reaching toward the unthinkable by threatening the global economy, and Democrats should be careful about humiliating them? First, they’ve already done that to themselves. Second, if this is their behavior in the minority, what could we expect of them in the majority. Solution: Break them, no mercy.
Well, Mavericky McFool, your beloved Repubs ARE in the majority in the House, hence the hysteria and shutdown hijinks.
As for the senate, I guess we’ll have to wait and see when a future Dem minority decides that it makes sense to use its filibuster power to wreck the gub’mint/country/economy via hostage taking over essential votes on basic gub’mint operations like Treasury debt issuance. So take your shame/honor “humiliation” (caused entirely by Boner’s Boneheads) and shove it, you braindead militarist fossil.
We know what their behavior is in the majority. We saw it from 2003 to 2007. Two wars, runaway debt, failure to deal with a hurricane, and preoccupation with preventing a family from honoring their daughter’s wishes about end of life.
Their behavior in the majority is exactly and precisely why they became a minority beginning in 2009.
First, we need to see the Senate act in a timely manner to pass this compromise measure. Once Reid-McConnell passes the Senate, I’ll start to believe.
But even then, we are assuming that Boehner will bring that measure to a vote. What – exactly – gives anyone any confidence that he will act with courage and conviction?
I see us stumbling into a short term default because of the bat shit bumfuckery of the GOP leadership and Kompletely Krazy Kaucus.
If your plan depends on Boehner accepting a deal that misses off Steve Stockman and Louie Gohmert, shouldn’t that give everyone pause?
No. John Boehner will not allow a default on our debts. You empower the crazies when you even contemplate such a thing. He won’t.
All we have to worry about is the Senate taking care of business on time.
Did you see this?
“Speaker Boehner is now on notice that he cannot continue to buckle to the hard right without retribution from the realist center. If he refuses to allow the full House to vote approval of the Senate measure, his anti-majoritarian action will force enough Republicans to join King and create a majority for the discharge petition — leading to his humiliation on October 28, when the rules once again make an up-or-down vote the order of the day.
“At that point, the rules make it impossible for the Speaker to push the discharge petition off the floor. The House cannot conduct any other business until the matter is “disposed of.”
“When faced with this clear and present danger of defeat, there is every prospect that Speaker Boehner will cave this Wednesday when the Senate initiative returns to the House.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/bruce-ackerman/peter-king-boehner-shutdown_b_4094121.html?utm_hp_ref=p
olitics
Right. Boehner needs that in his hip pocket. But it won’t go to October 28th. It will go to Wednesday.
I cannot wait until this Wednesday!!! The Wizard’s curtain could conceivably be pulled back to reveal the truth of the matter…a
bipartisan, centristUniParty that stonewalls so-called “extremists” from the left and the right. As adept at obfuscation as is the Governmental Media Complex, eventually the magicians run out of tricks.And then?
And then…there we jolly well are, aren’t we.
Caught with our hand in our own pants, jerking off the world.
The United States of Flydini.
Disgusting.
AG
You sound just like Erick Erickson.
Don’t be silly.
More Like Mark Twain, really.
I actually have more respect for sausage than I do for what has been happening in the precincts ruled by the federal government over the past 50+ years. The political process following the assassination-fueled military-industrial/corporate coup has been a long, downward death spiral, and it will hit bottom eventually.
I mean…if you at least have some sausage and a little burnable wood you can still eat.
Like I said…the magician(s) will run out of tricks.
When?
Dunno.
My bet on this segment of the hustle?
The United States of Pauline will be miraculously saved once again just as the default locomotive comes roaring ’round the bend belching yet more smoke and mirrors.
Why is that my bet?
Because the troops are not yet home in sufficient quantities to handle the chaos that would erupt once the seriousness of the situation revealed itself to the American
marks…err, ahhh, people…by way of serious fuel and food shortagesWatch.
But always remember:
Eventually we’ll run out of track.
Bet on it.
AG
Except Erickson didn’t quote Lord Buckley.
Not hip to him, more’n likely.
You are, though.
Congratulations.
AG
And most people are humble enough to avoid comparing themselves with Mark Twain.
The most depressing thing about this whole dumbshow?
The utter stupidity of the audience.
That means you, ya numbnuts!!!
How any American can swallow this line of bullshit after 50+ years of continuous lies is totally beyond me.
Maybe George Carlin had it right:
Only I suppose he was really about 49% off.
The real 1%?
Those who are hip to the scam.
Bet on it.
Wake the fuck up.
This particular episode of THE UniParty hustle has only two possible endings.
#1-The continuing “Perils of Pauline” thing.
Or #2-Total takeover of the system by force once the default clicks into place.
WTFU !!!
AG
Is is possible the crazies will not show up to vote and deny Boehner the quorum he needs to pass any legislation?
No. “A quorum in the House of Representatives is when a majority of the Members are present. When there are no vacancies in the membership, a quorum is 218.”
And your evidence for this is….?
Because the Senate will likely pass something that reopens the government and raises the debt ceiling in return for nothing. The only question seems to be the length of time.
And Boehner will really bring this to an immediate vote?
Plus, I don’t see this flying through the Senate.
I think we default on Thursday and pass something Friday or Saturday and the world markets shit a brick.
My evidence?
Boehner has said he will never allow a default, he has promised his own caucus that he will never allow a default, he has promised business leaders that he will never allow a default, and you have to understand that a default is so epically catastrophic that Boehner would have no more future if he allowed it than if he didn’t.
The whole thing has been a false hostage situation, where the only way to get the ransom is to convince the Democrats that you actually have the hostage and are about to shoot them. But they can’t shoot them without blowing themselves up.
It doesn’t matter that a couple dozen idiots don’t understand the importance of U.S. Treasuries to the global economy, because the entire Republican leadership does understand their importance and will never, ever, deliberately default. Their gun is being held to their own head.
“But they can’t shoot them without blowing themselves up.”
I’m convinced that most of those guys are quite ready to do this, just like any other terrorist suicide bombers. They probably think it would bring on the rapture or something.
But Boehmer for damn sure isn’t, and that’s what counts.
What’s interesting is that Boehner could have defied the Tea Party a few weeks ago, brought the CR and DL to the floor plus some of the stalled bills (e.g. immigration reform), passed them, gotten deposed by conservatives, and walked out of there a total hero to the business community, the MSM, and much of the country. And been a super-lobbyist forever. He would have gone down but in a blaze of glory etched in the history books.
Now, a few short weeks later, mostly same outcome, but Boehner comes out of it a wreck and a scapegoat. If he were bold he coulda made his mark; but he was weak, and timid, and he failed.
We don’t default on Thursday. Thursday was originally estimated as the day extraordinary measure were exhausted and the government was left with only the cash on hand. Default only occurs when the money runs out. If payments and bills were perfectly matched, that would take several weeks. More likely, there will be a earlier day where it just happens bills come early and payments late but that’s unlikely to be the very next day.
The earliest certain drop-dead date is Nov 1, when the Social Security checks go out, along with a variety of other monthly payments, for a total of 70 billion. With the shutdown in place, we’ll likely get that far, although I would not count on it.
I understand the conditions that are outlined as to why Boehner ends this. My question is how hard is it for the Rethugs to force him out now and remove him from the speakership? Could the TP do it? After reading the Rule change that only allowed the majority leader (Cantor) to do stuff, I am surprised they haven’t elevated Cantor to speaker yet.
So McConnell is on board, that gives 55 votes. We need 60 and even then we need something like 17 Republicans to sign the discharge petition. Last time we had zero.
And what stops the CruzKateers from withholding unanimous consent and forcing cloture even if the other senate Repubs are willing to capitulate? Doesn’t that then take three senate days to ripen or whatever? Surely a single senator can still stop the whole affair for a few days. How does the Drunken Boner even get the supposed capitulation in time to have Nancy save his useless “speakership”?
You’d think I’d have learned this stuff by now, after all the times Prof. Booman has gone over it….
McConnell and the threat of the Nuclear Option. It’s not the House, you know.
So what’s the “compromise” ? I feel my asshole puckering up.
If all else fails, then by 11pm on Wednesday the President should go on tv and request that Congress fail to pass a debt ceiling, to pretty please default on the debt, and as a favor to him continue the government shut down indefinitely.
The Tea Partiers will line-up in droves to sign a debt ceiling extension and pass a clean CR; hell they may even pass the Senate-approved budget.
I remember thinking this “rout” would happen in January of 2009 and that the GOP would be in a good place in 2016. It didn’t and they’re not.
If the GOP flinches the tea baggers will continue to believe the Dems would have flinched in time and, if not, the Dems would have been blamed for resulting harm at the polls.
They are still cheering the shutdown and are all for default.
If McConnell and Boner deal with the moderates and Dems the tea baggers will NOT have learned a thing and will bring both of them down at the polls.
They know it.
I should worry?
But seriously folks, open war has been declared, and we are about to see Karl Rove go toe to toe with the Tea Party. May the best sleaze win.
All the reports are of people talking.
There are very few reports about terms yet and the latest were of short-term debt limit increase and short-term continuing resolution. Meaning yet another opportunity for stunts.
I’m not buying the rational Republican line as long as John McCain is still shilling for the crazies. The fact is that none of them are separate from the interests that fund and continue to fund the Tea Party actions. That none of them have ever broken with their leadership in the ways that conservative Democrats habitually thumb their nose at the Democratic leadership.
So, I’m waiting to see the results of the action when it comes. Why Wednesday at the last minute if the GOP has decided to fold? Still gaming instead of governing.
At the moment, my sense is that this will be recurring crises throughout 2014. Boehner might lose the speakership, but I’m not sure that that will end the Hastert rule nonsense. It’s hard to get optimistic about the capabilities of the Republican Party for internal reform toward the center and for normal operations even under the existential threat of self-defeat.
I’m getting the feeling that the SC GOP is so Tea Party that what’s happening in Washington and much of the country is just not happening in SC, so you don’t believe it.
In fact, it’s probably a mirror image of most of the rest of country. Nationwide, people overwhelmingly blame the Republicans, Apparently in GA and SC, they overwhelmingly blame Obama and the Democrats.
I couldn’t find state-by-state or regional breakdowns, but I did find that in Arkansas, at least, most blame Obama.
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/361137/arkansans-blame-obama-and-senate-dems-shutdown-and-other
-good-news-tom-cotton-patrick
This is typical for the states of the former Confederacy, but not for the country as a whole.
No wonder the Tea Party have been so intent on blocking access to ACA in the south. A lot of poor whites might get a different view of the Democrats if they had access to health insurance.
Not sure what SC has to do with my comment. I’m in the Triangle of NC and we see Rob Christensen’s supposed analysis. But not even Walter (former Democrat) Jones has broken with the crazies and he’s one of the most likely to.
Check Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming to see who they are blaming. The Dakotas should be canaries on this issue. And in Nebraska, it has already brought out a Democratic candidate in Omaha. This is not exclusively a Confederacy geography thing; the Confederacy has outposts in Michigan, Indiana, and Southern California these days.
I’m a little worried when I read that Reid’s opening position is a continuing resolution for 6-9 months. That’s setting up a pre-election repeat of this nonsense. And that’s the position to be compromised from. Unless he moves the goalposts the later it gets.
Things may look a bit different in NC after they settle this latest hostage crisis. I keep hearing that even a lot of Republicans in NC are very pissed off with the current regime.
Sure the Confederacy has outposts all over the country. But Southern California? After California has just destroyed Republican power in their state? Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin, yeah. Those will be interesting.
It’s open war in the GOP.
http://www.omaha.com/article/20131011/AP06/310119967
You can brag about California when Darrell Issa and the Central Valley nitwits are out of Congress.
Omaha is a purple speck. When western Nebraska gets it, I’ll believe there’s war in earnest. And when Steve King in NW Iowa is sweating. Pete King of Long Island was bobbing and weaving but still went over the cliff; reckon Steve Israel can find someone to beat King?
Pete King of Long Island was bobbing and weaving but still went over the cliff; reckon Steve Israel can find someone to beat King?
Obama won King’s district twice(someone please correct me if I’m wrong). Yet the Democrats can’t beat King? OTOH, I bet Steve Israel protects him just like the DCCC(and DWS) protects other GOP committee chair and the various clowns down in Florida.
I don’t think the Tea Party members will learn anything unless you literally “rub their face in it”. I say lets pay for all this crazy ideas with a new fertilizer tax.
The Koch Brothers are big players in making Fertilizer for farmers. (true)
They will never learn anything even if you do rub it in their face. The only way forward is to drive ’em back to the fringes where they belong.
Hmm, so reading Scheiber he seems to be talking about symbolic concessions. That’s troubling.