I like Brian Beutler’s pre-game analysis of tonight’s Republican debate at the Ronald Reagan presidential library.
I think he has a good formulation in carving out four candidates who are broadly acceptable to the Republican establishment. These would be Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, Florida U.S. Senator Marco Rubio, Ohio Governor John Kasich and, of course, Jeb! Bush of Terri Schiavo fame.
If New Jersey Governor Chris Christie could someone right his ship and stage a political comeback, he could be added to this list, but he’s an afterthought at the moment.
So, if one of those four candidates is going to be the nominee (eventually), we really need to figure out how it is going to happen.
Starting with Marco Rubio, he’s an actual bona fide Latino. Sure, he’s Cuban-American, but the entire tide and momentum of the nomination contest right now is with people who are using Press ‘1’ for English as their rallying cry. It’s kind of hard to see how that all gets transferred to the “hey, we’re a new kind of inclusive party that is led by a bona fide Latino!” I mean, it could happen, and that would be interesting and positive in its own way, I guess, but are you putting money on it happening?
As for Scott Walker, it’s hard to see any pulse to his campaign at all. This is one of the most surprising develops of the campaign so far. Maybe, if he can reverse course and move up as quickly as he’s moved down, he can reemerge as a hybrid option that excites the base and doesn’t freak out the suits. I guess a strong debate performance would be the best way to begin that resurrection. But are you putting money on the charisma-challenged Walker having a strong debate performance?
Then there’s Jeb! Bush. Pretty much all the chaos and havoc and angst we’re witnessing is a direct result of the fact that Jeb! sucks as a candidate and is being rejected like generic dog food. If he sticks around long enough and lets the inherent flaws of his competitors become evident enough, he could win like McCain and Romney won, as the last plausible guy standing. He’s still got a shot, but the zeitgeist is against him. I wouldn’t bet your money on this guy.
That leaves John Kasich of Ohio. I think this is the guy. You can give me a lot of reasons why the base won’t love him, and that’s true. But the base hasn’t loved anyone since Dubya crawled back to Dallas. Kasich doesn’t need the base to love him. He just has to beat out these other three chumps (which is not particularly hard to envision) and be the last guy standing against The Donald.
I give Kasich at least even money in that fight.
So, what does Kasich have to do tonight?
Not much, really. Just sound reasonable and respectable and keep even with the others. As Jeb’s supporters panic and seek safety, they’ll flock to Kasich and his numbers will grow. Right now, he’s tied with Jeb in fourth place in New Hampshire with nine percent of the vote. Together, he and Bush have 18% and Fiorina (in third place) has another 11%.
So, collectively, these three command about 29 to 30 percent of the vote in the Granite State.
The problem is that Trump (22%), Carson (18%), and Cruz (5%) collectively have about 45%.
If there’s a problem with my theory that Kasich is an even-money bet to beat Trump, it’s this 45%-30% outsider-insider advantage. But I think the mainstream candidates are suffering from having no clear champion, as Beutler pointed out, and I think that the flaws in the outsiders will become more troubling to more people as it comes time to take a real serious look. So, really, if it were any closer than 45%-30%, I’d be willing to put my chips on Kasich without any hesitation.
Maybe Rubio will surprise me, and maybe Walker and Jeb have something in the tank that I’m just not seeing, but I’m getting more confident about a Kasich showdown with Trump, or if Trump collapses early, a showdown between Kasich and Carson.
You are dead right with the establishment candidates – who might also be described as those who can win.
I am beginning to think Cruz is going to win. There is a right wing primary going on:
Carson
Cruz
Santorum
Huckabbe
I just don’t think Carson survives the scrutiny. The other two are has-beens.
So Cruz wins Iowa. He then wins South Carolina and the Southern primaries on Super Tuesday.
If I had to guess right now he will win. The question is who wins the establishment primary and how many are left going into South Carolina.
I may come to eat these words, but your prediction causes me to discount everything else you have to say.
Ted Cruz is currently auditioning to be Donald Trump’s caddie and he’ll never even get that job.
Fair enough.
If you think predictions, yours, mine anyone’s are worth crap, that is.
I’m with fladem. Cruz has been positioning himself to lead an insurgency since 2013. He’s got money and ground game; he’s been lending support to down-ticket races for two years and is owed considerable favours among the fractious post-Tea Party wing.
His initial strategy, it seems to me, relied on the timely collapse of other insurgencies; Trump’s rise and Paul’s demise have forced a change of plan but he’ll still be sitting pretty with a significant and angry cohort if Trump collapses.
Yep. He’s very smart, clever and slick, and an excellent and confident debater. So he’ll be in the race for a while, assuming his money holds up.
But Theodore will not get the nom, and is no one’s VP except maybe for Donald, who after last night has probably peaked and is about to begin charting downward.
Cruz won’t win much of anywhere. Between Trump and Carson, there isn’t any air left for Cruz. If Trump dies it is quite possible that most of his support will evaporate from the R party altogether … especially if he decides not to honor the yellow dog contract.
Carson supporters don’t like Cruz. Fundie Xtians might like to talk about the “end of days” but they don’t really like their political leaders to claim a significant personal place in the end of days scenarios. It smacks of hubris.
… the Republicans learned their lesson from Goldwater; they now always nominate the guy (and I do mean “guy”) with the best chance to win. The Republicans are only interested in winning.
Kasich, for reasons I do not understand, is relatively popular in Ohio. That probably means he has a decent chance there against Hillary, and a rather good chance against Sanders. And we all know that if the Republicans do not win Ohio, they are cooked. That’s why, in 2012, Karl Rove did not want to believe his own network when they called Ohio for Obama.
My prediction: Kasich/Martinez (Governor of New Mexico). This is the strongest possible ticket I can think of, and so it is almost impossible for me to imagine the Republicans not running it. Martinez is far brighter than Rubio, used to be a Democrat (she says) and made the only excellent speech at Romney’s nominating convention.
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I wonder what percentage of Republican primary voters, if asked to list their candidates, would remember Kasich?
(And I’m not sure that imagining the strongest ticket is the way to go. McCain/Palin …)
1964 was 51 years ago. Those who would have learned anything from it are now 70 and older. I think it’s time to recognize that 1964 is now ancient history politically.
Nah, lacerda, not when your base (Faux News viewers) average 65yo.
Besides, I remember 1964 VERY well. And I’m NOT 70!
I have thought for a long time the odds were that Kasich would be the horse that begins to move out of the middle of the pack as they round the third turn. He is generally popular in Ohio, mostly because he has a super-majority in the Statehouse and that allows him to maintain a certain level of detachment from some of the more draconian conservative policies that have been enacted in our state. He has not generally had to fight many high profile battles since he got his ass handed to him on SB-5, the bill to eliminate collective bargaining for public employees, very early in his administration. With so few elected Democrats who can raise issues to the level that forces him from the comfy confines of Governors’ Mansion, the legislature is simply able to push things through by sheer force of numbers, often with no debate and often completely out of sight of everyone except we policy wonk types.
He is a skilled politician, and if the opportunity was given to him, I think he could go toe to toe with someone like Trump and come out with a few winning punches, possibly enough to make people begin to ponder him as a serious alternative. It will be interesting to see how he comes out of this debate.
I am VERY worried about the idea of him as the candidate. As you know he is pretty good at the faux-moderate act. I can only hope that his famously thin skin would get him in real trouble at some point, but I wouldn’t want to bet the country on that.
Hmm, maybe liberals should start shouting about how much we like him until he becomes toxic to the wingnuts? 😉
Agreed. Every Democrat around here knows that he is a wolf in sheep’s clothing. He is a very capable and cagey politician who knows how to play the game. I have been present at a couple of events where he was a speaker/guest and when it comes to working the room, saying all the right things and pushing the right buttons, he knows what he’s doing. If he gets an opportunity, he can quickly move up the ladder. He’s a very good retail politician, but he also has a keen eye for the wholesale politicking that is necessary in these kinds of primaries.
Kasich has 2.9% support, no money, and no organization. He’s not going to win the nomination though I think he will end-up being their VP nominee. Because Ohio
There’s a gazillion dollars that is still sitting in the pockets of millionaires and billionaires that has not yet been committed. There is plenty of time to fill the coffers of a candidate like Kasich. And at this point in the process that 2.9% is only a number.
I agree about the money.
The 2.9%, IMO, is indicative of a broader, underlying, trend: the GOP base is deeply unsatisfied with their Party and especially their Party leaders. They want their raw meat: repeal of ObamaCare, outlawing abortion, gutting Federal spending, etc., and they are out of patience. There’s no amount of $$$ that can cure that.
I heard Kasich speak on NPR a few weeks ago.
I decided right there, after about 5 minutes listening that Kasich would emerge as the non-crazy candidate.
He is really much better than Jeb! or Walker.
Rubio: he smells like VP material to me right now.
It’s waaay too early, but at this point I think Jeb! will pull a Mittens. Well over $100M in his war chest last at last count.
Kasich does seem to have the bona findes, but he entered fairly late in the game; I doubt it’s too late. Not unreasonable to think he could capture the nomination.
Kasich/Rubio would be a decent ticket, but at this point I’m thinking Bush/Kasich or Bush/Rubio seems far more likely.
Constitutionally, Bush/Rubio cannot run on the same ticket because they’re both from the same state.
Didn’t stop Bush/Cheney. Cheney moved at the last second to Wyoming and the SCOTUS denied a case that challenged him. Of course, the letter of the Constitution and related laws meant that Cheney really couldn’t run, but what the hell ….
I’m in agreement about Kasich being the voice of reason, such as it is. And he’s a businessman, so he knows what Trump’s frames of reference are. Kasich is Wall Street once removed and he can work an audience like a snake charmer. He knows what to say and how to say it, with just enough smoke to cover the lies.
As an Ohioan, I’ve seen his other face, the anti-choice guy, the women’s rights naysayer, the king of privatization and big business. Whether that makes him a dangerous choice compared to the likes of Jeb$ or the other nutbirds running, I can’t say.
Just be careful what you wish for.
Pew Research has some polling and analysis heading into tonight’s shouting match.
Polls show Republicans in a restive mood.
We are four and half months away from Iowa and 38.7% of polled GOPers are supporting No Hope Candidates. The Top Three are Trump, The Evangelical Whack-a-Loon of the Moment, e.g., Carson, and JEB! with 33.8%, 18.8%, and 8.7% support.
There’s no question, JEB! is in trouble. I still think he will be their nominee because Trump is such an obvious loser and the rest of the field are such obvious crazies.
You deserve credit, Booman, for making an audacious prediction. I don’t personally see Kasich resonating with anyone but those who have real concerns about the Republican party generally. His position on Medicare expansion and statements about Jesus vis a vis the poor make him completely unacceptable to the vast majority of GOP rank and file, not to mention those behind the curtain of the Grand Wurlitzer (though the latter group would compromise to avoid the Trump). That’s also what makes him the most frightening candidate in a general election.
Jeb is still the guy most likely to be the anti-Trump even though he totally sucks as a candidate. He’s got the bulk of the money and connections. Walker remains #2 in that race though he also sucks as a candidate. Rubio is interesting. Could he become the kind of guy who, like Carson, becomes the token everyone loves and the shield against any charge of racism? But my God, we’re so early in this contest. A lot of folks haven’t even started paying attention. The activists are the least likely to find any of these four palatable. Things could change a great deal once they begin to notice that the real alternative is Hillary Clinton or, hard though it is to imagine, Bernie Sanders.
Nobody really likes Rubio.
He’s running because he couldn’t get re-elected in FL.
Shucks. CNN has had them talking about Trump and immigration for forty-five minutes. Last thing anyone would do if Trump not in the race, no?
Graham let it all hang out for a minute, too, in that spat with Santorum over immigration. Interesting.
After watching Fiorina’s ad and clips on ‘this face’ I’m betting she’ll hit the debates the hardest and rise to relevance.
Cruz and Huckabee do need to score points against Carson who is locking up much of the fundie vote. The problem for them is that Carson’s support is strongest with women; so, it’s not going to be easy for them to challenge Carson and get women to pivot to them.
My one out of the ether prediction for this debate is that Trump hits Bush hard and leaves him looking like more of an idiot.
It won’t be hard to make Jeb! look like an idiot. He doesn’t know how to defend himself.
Didn’t expect the Trump supporters to be excluded from the audience.
Don’t think I made it to the halfway point. I did try, but my tolerance for ignorance, lies, bigotry, and irrationality ran out long before the crazy show ended.
One thing I did note is that in a general election debate all of them will have to eat crap that they spewed in this.
I said it to my debate party host like five times tonight, “dude they had to have screened the attendees, right?”
He didn’t have an opinion beyond that the library is only ~500 people whereas the first one had thousands of seats.
A dastardly clever ploy by TPTB. CA megabuck funders of Fiorina likely had no problem salting the audience with Carly-bots.
Wasn’t paying attention to which of the candidates got the most enthusiastic audience responses. Christie did try to woo them with == it’s about you, but I don’t think that helped him with them.
Cruz would have had a natural disadvantage at that venue because Texas accents don’t play well in CA. For whatever longstanding reason, Californians don’t like Texans.
Will be interesting to see if this debate has any impact on the polls.
I say Carly gained the most, Trump lost the most (if this audience was representative), and Paul may have inched up. Walker, Jindal, Christie…pfft why are they even still here? I didn’t even realize Jindal was on stage; seriously, no joke.
At least I called one thing correctly: Ted Cruz Introduces Himself To GOP Debate Audience, Gets Literally Zero Applause
Trump did blow it in making that comment about Carly’s appearance a few days ago. That gave her team plenty of time to work out a winning response to him. Bully a woman politician and it’s easy for them to get a lot of sympathy. Hillary has benefited from that in the past — and Obama was much too savvy to give her such an opportunity in ’08.
Carly is as hateful towards women as the other candidates. All except herself. She really does have an exalted opinion of herself, including her appearance. When she looks in a mirror, she sees someone like Susan Sarandon staring back. Sort of like I always thought that when Lieberman looks in a mirror, he sees Robert Redford.
Trumps usual style is to double down when he gets tripped out, but this time he whiffed. After, your beautiful, he could have said, “a testament to the skill of your cosmetic surgeon.” (Carly didn’t make the mistake that Trump’s ex-wife Ivana did which is to begin having major “work” done too early. Carly may also have had a better surgeon or the technology has improved in the past couple of the decades. Ivana does now look dreadful.)
If Fiorina gains points, whose pockets does she pick?
She could pick Trump’s, tbh. But I just don’t know if this crowd was represnetive, or if the GOP is susceptible to post-debate analysis to sway their opinions (I haven’t watched the talking heads, but I can bet they say she won in a landslide…which is actually true, imo).
Speaking of losers, Jeb Bush may have inched up as well, even though he threw up a perfect softball for Trump to hit: “my brother kept us safe.” NO ONE wanted to hit that? Jesus..amateurs.
Trump has been both a very smart pol and a dumb one. There was that narrow but very profitable opening, and Trump is from the attacked area.
Amazing how Junior rarely gets called for failing to follow up on the pre-911 clear intel reports. 3000 dead is considered “Keeping America Safe.”
Trump demonstrated that he’s less fast on his feet than he’s advertised. He screwed up the opening question with his pre-scripted pivot question as to why Paul was even included. Also demonstrated that he doesn’t have any or decent talent preparing him for the debates. And it didn’t take a rocket scientist to identify what, where, how to punch back.
He had to know that there was almost a 100% chance that “look at that face” was going to surface in the debate. And as he and Fiorina are fishing for votes in the same pond, he had to be responsive on this one. Still not sure what that would have looked like. How’s this:
Opening question:
Several different ways to go with this one, but defensive bombast was the weakest. The most straightforward approach would have been something like:
More generic and no more responsive to the direct question than Carly’s answer was:
The place Jeb? left himself most open to an attack from Trump before the debate was his “plan” to cut taxes again for the wealthy. Odd that Trump didn’t find a way to slice, dice, and spit him out on this issue because officially Trump and Jeb differ on this. And he should have always been prepared for Jeb? to pull out “my brother kept us safe” because stupid people are prone to repeating stupid things.
Trump had some awareness of Walker’s poor economic performance as governor, but he allowed himself to get tangled up in details and didn’t score any points in the back and forth between the two.
On Carson — Is Mr. Carson saying the he doesn’t need to know anything about government policies or have any plans to fix whatever because as President he’ll subcontract the job to Jesus? That may go over well with some voters, but history tells us that lots of devils are quick to step into human leadership vacuums.
On all the crazy stuff, there’s not enough difference between Trump and the others for him to lose or score points with the intended GOP primary voters.
Trump’s debate prep so far seems to consist of one of his Yes Men telling him just a few minutes before the show that he looks great, will do great, just be yourself, strong and tall, and when in doubt wing it about how lousy the country is today, no one cares about details.
Could be he’s just lazy. Learned a few things years ago in B-school about the property business, did some homework back then, but doesn’t want to be bothered with that hard work stuff and learning new things any more.
Or just a little too full of himself — he’s so great he can just show up without studying and pass the test.
I’m a little troubled about last night, not because Donald didn’t deserve his comeuppance, but because he might have revived the dying jeb? campaign.
That’s the problem with improv talent and experience, it only takes one so far. Stewart, Colbert, and Robin Williams were all good, and occasionally very good, at improvisation. But they consistently hit much higher marks when scripted and rehearsed. When improv goes up against scripted and rehearsed, even when the script and delivery isn’t great, the latter wins most of the time.
Most of these candidates are surrounded by sycophants and none of them handle authentic and objective critiques well. They overvalue whatever successes they’ve had in life and dismiss or don’t bother to recognize their personal failings and failures. Most of them are also delusional in hearing a god speak to them and tell them they are perfect.
Jeb? didn’t take himself out last night, but neither did he do himself any favors. “More tax cuts for billionaires” and “My brother kept us safe” have been losers for a decade.
What we’ll now get until the next debate is the MSM telling everybody that Carly was great and Rubio is a young prince in waiting. Too few people could sit through more than a few minutes of the spectacle to have the wherewithal, or interest, in questioning the MSM opinion. So, the show must go on.
In my hotel lobby, ordering some dinner, the debate was on. It was horrible. As soon as I could I found the seat farthest away from the noise. Honestly, the closest thing I could liken it to was a bunch of wingnut drunks at the end of the bar debating the world’s problems.
But I did notice a couple things in that short time period. (Alas, it’s my nature.) First Kasich stood out as the guy who actually thought the Iran deal was a good thing. He tried to explain it and was interrupted a few times. I’m sorry, I was having flashes of Jon Huntsman again. No way he wins – every single unit of right wing media has painted this deal as worse than Neville Chamberlain and Hitler, and you know that their rabid base believes that. Now, this does show he’s got a rational side, but if he was to win this campaign he have to say the right thing then do the opposite. I think he’s trying to appeal to the rational Republicans remaining – but is overestimating how many of them their really are.
The second thing I noticed was that everyone else seemingly had been practicing in front of a mirror trying to have the kind of expressions and voice that Trump has. Trump – during that short spurt I saw – seemed almost subdued in comparison. It didn’t come naturally to Walker or Fiorna – and honest I’ve never seen Christie so uncomfortable as i seemed he was trying to be a blowhard but a different kind of blowhard than he usually is.
No, Boo, my guess right now – and FSM knows I’m often wrong – is that you are just hoping Kasich wins because you really don’t want to deal with a country that nominates one of the others for President.
Overall, I thought Kasich looked bad in presentation style. A soupcon of sanity combined with as much ignorance as the others.
Candidates haven’t been rehearsing in front of mirrors since before Reagan. They’re coached with video and playback, over and over again until they extinguish all their ticks, etc. and manufacture or ramp up whatever their coaches think would play better.
Is not Fiorina an acceptable candidate for the establishment? I said before that she was plan B in case of Jeb failure, and I haven’t seen the whole debate yet (I’m not watching live), but she scored on Trump over the personal insult. And she played well to the base without saying anything so outrageous as to hurt her in the general. Now the organ and the monkeys will be singing in her key. Watch Fox get Fiorina fever.
OTOH, the consensus among non-crazies that watched the kiddie table debate was that Jindal was the most stupid and a total jerk. Guess the RWNJs get off on jackaserry.
this is post debate analysis. i did a quick run around the right wing blogs and; they hate kasich, they hate bush, they hate rand, they loved carly tonite, they loved jindal tonite, they really really like cruz. trump did not come off very well except with the sarah palin crazies. huck, santorum, pataki, walker, and carson didnt seem to really register very much. i predict this may be the beginning of the end for trump. and maybe carson. and possibly christie even though he gave his best bully. i think carly, jindal and rubio might have done themselves some good. bush it doesnt matter, he has money.
Either the media slant or the public are dealing from the bottom of the stack on who won the debate. Fiorina, Carson, Kasich, Bush, Trump in that order. Start the music and take away a chair. Whose campaign is next to fold?
When does these entertainers suffer from overexposure?
From the hour or so I saw, it looks like Donald got a lot of incoming from other candidates, assisted by moderator Jake Topper.
Donald the counterpuncher didn’t seem to counterpunch very effectively. He seemed rather subdued in the final hour, quiet, very un-Donald like. He would say the debate lasted too long, and it did, but I think he felt a bit rocked by some of the punches in what looked like for a stretch to be almost a pile on, and probably missed having good audience support to buck him up.
Even jeb? showed some fight. Sadly, this confirms my long-held view that he will not fade away quietly, as most normal people believe he should, and might possibly end up fulfilling early expectations. He’s a Bush, entitled, used to getting his way. He’ll be hanging around a long time, maybe rising in the polls after last night.
Whenever a pol fiercely defends his wife from attacks by another pol, he’s going to gain votes. And he’s doubly guaranteed to hang around and maybe prosper so long as the MSM quietly promotes him with softball and disproportionate coverage. Four months to IA — plenty of time for jeb? to slowly climb back up the ladder. Trending upward soon.
Carson — again I doubt his lasting power. His shallowness will continue to be revealed and his sedated personality is not going to rouse the masses. Downward arrow for him starting now.
Fiorina and Kasich, upward arrow with viability going forward.
Christie — upward slightly in near term, but he’s going nowhere.
Bruce Walker — another debate failure. Downward arrow and on his way out.