Casual Observation

8 Comments

1. 

   MNPundit on October 5, 2015 at 3:10 pm

   So TPP now faces the fastrack vote in Congress. I feel ill.

2. 

   Marie3 on October 5, 2015 at 3:42 pm

   So, pollsters are only able to reach half of the adults they attempt to contract and of that 50% that they do contact, only 10% are willing to participate in the poll.  The other nine don’t know or don’t care.  As over half of eligible adults do vote, I’m going with “don’t know” at this stage of the electoral cycle and name recognition is the largest single factor in the results they get.  Thus, that would mean that the Bush name is a negative this time around.  Trump is about where he could be expected to be (and appears not to have gained nor lost over the past sixty plus days).  Overall, Fiorina has picked a few pockets, but otherwise the GOP race has been static with none of them breaking out and Trump and Carson not tripping on their own banana peels.  Might not change much in the next two months.

3. 

   BooMan on October 5, 2015 at 3:53 pm

   Well, that’s why we have co-pilots.

4. 

   boran2 on October 5, 2015 at 4:29 pm

   Having watched the last GOP 3 ring circus debate, I’m not sure that being excluded is a bad thing.  

5. 

   DerFarm on October 5, 2015 at 4:31 pm

   C’mon Booman, that’s old news.

   Raz has been in the bag for years.

6. 

   yastreblyansky on October 5, 2015 at 7:12 pm

   Amazed by the understatement here:

   “These numbers all have a margin of error around them,” said Jocelyn Kiley, an associate director at the Pew Research Center. “We try very hard, as do most of our colleagues in the field, to make clear when there are significant differences and when there aren’t.”
   So when pollsters themselves announce a margin of error, it should be taken seriously, she said.

   If polls themselves don’t announce the margin of error, they should be used as kitty litter. If the journalists don’t take note of the margin of error they should be transferred to a different beat. And they don’t take note of it on the whole, so the whole story is almost pure narrativium, up until the point where the margins start getting reasonable, which is when? Some point after South Carolina? With this many candidates and the cell phone issue Marie discusses, maybe never.

   • 

     yastreblyansky on October 5, 2015 at 7:13 pm

     Not the cell phone issue, I read too fast, but it doesn’t affect the point.

7. 

   Joelcr on October 6, 2015 at 12:51 am

   You mean like this outlier poll?

   http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/ibd-tipp-22844

   There’s also Gravis, still hanging around.