In the June/July/August issue of the Washington Monthly, former Bill Clinton-pollster Stanley Greenberg discussed areas of agreement between “downscale” white working class voters and reform-minded progressives. His findings came from research he did in concert with Page Gardner’s Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund and David Donnelly’s Every Voice. Here’s part of what Greenberg discovered and concluded:
…the white working-class and downscale voters in our surveys do support major parts of a progressive, activist agenda, particularly when a Democratic candidate boldly attacks the role of money and special interests dominating government and aggressively promotes reforms to ensure that average citizens get both their say and their money’s worth…
…In recent years, too many Democrats have presumed that the white working class is out of the party’s reach and that talk of reforming government and the political process simply does not move voters. My contention is that both of those presumptions are wrong. An agenda of reform is the key to Democrats winning the greater share of white working-class and unmarried women votes that will give the party the majorities it needs to govern.
So, the key finding is that going after money in politics actually can move voters, and particularly the kind of voters that Democrats have been losing and that they need to broaden their regional appeal and make a run at retaking control of the House of Representatives.
You might think that the Republican Party is aware of this potential weakness and is therefore willing to play defense or maybe even get out in front of the reform process to cut off a likely avenue of attack. If so, you couldn’t be more wrong.
As Politico reports, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (the least popular member of the Senate) is preparing to introduce a rider into the upcoming must-pass omnibus spending bill.
Senate Republicans plan to insert a provision into a must-pass government funding bill that would vastly expand the amount of cash that political parties could spend on candidates, multiple sources tell POLITICO.
The provision, which sources say is one of a few campaign-finance related riders being discussed in closed-door negotiations over a $1.15 trillion omnibus spending package, would eliminate caps on the amount of cash that parties may spend in coordination with their candidates.
Pushed by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, a longtime foe of campaign finance restrictions, the coordination rider represents the latest threat to the increasingly rickety set of rules created to restrict political fundraising and spending on elections.
Campaign finance watchdogs argue that it would allow wealthy donors to exercise even more influence with members of Congress. And they cried foul over the possibility that the provision could be slipped into the omnibus spending bill that Congress is working to pass before a Dec. 11 deadline to avoid a government shutdown.
Campaign-finance watchdog Fred Wertheimer of Democracy 21, points out that the Republicans tried and failed to get a similar provision through the normal committee process. “They’re using this end-game process to do what they can’t necessarily do in the legislative process.”
Meanwhile, the Senate Democratic leadership is opposed to this change in the law, although that doesn’t mean necessarily that they’ll be willing to cause a government shutdown to prevent it. I don’t know that the Obama administration would veto an omnibus containing this provision, either. The assumption that the Democrats won’t fight on this is the entire point of McConnell’s gambit.
To be sure, there are some reform-minded folks who think the parties have grown too weak relative to outside Super PAC-type organizations, and a few of them believe that giving the parties more power to fund and coordinate with campaigns could serve as a useful tonic.
We can discuss the policy merits of that argument if you like, but there’s also a political argument here. Greenberg identified an area where the Democrats might make some headway by picking a fight, which is in keeping big money out of politics. If they acquiesce to these changes, they’ll be passing up a chance to show that they’re on the side of the small donor and the little guy.
There’s also something to be said for picking a fight with the least popular senator in America, particularly one with a long checkered record of fighting for big money.
Do you remember during McConnell’s reelection campaign last year when The Nation released a surreptitiously recorded audio tape of him addressing a “secret strategy conference of conservative millionaire and billionaire donors hosted by the Koch brothers”?
If you listened to that tape, you can hardly be surprised by what McConnell is planning now:
In the tape, McConnell talks about his plan to attach Republican initiatives to spending bills should he become the Senate majority leader…
“The worst day of my political life was when President George W. Bush signed McCain-Feingold into law in the early part of the first administration,” McConnell told the group.
“McCain-Feingold” refers to the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002, which was the last serious attempt to get big money out of politics.
Some people noted that perhaps 9/11 would have been a better day to choose as the “worst day of his life.” But, then, not everyone is accustomed to addressing billionaires in secret strategy sessions.
Returning to Greenberg’s research, here’s what he found happens when you pitch a plan to get big money out of politics before you pitch them on a Bernie Sanders/Elizabeth Warren-type plan to soak the rich to help the middle class:
In a straight test, the presidential electorate is as enthusiastic about a reform narrative as the middle-class economic one. The first part of the narrative focuses on big business and special interests that give big money to politicians and then use lobbyists to win special tax breaks and special laws that cost the country billions. The second part emphasizes how special interests and the bureaucracy protect out-of-date programs that don’t work. The bottom line of the narrative is that government reform would free up money so the government could work for middle-class and working families rather than big donors.
Most importantly, when voters hear the reform narrative first, they are then dramatically more open to the middle-class economic narrative that calls for government activism in response to America’s problems.
Among voters who heard the reform message first, 43 percent describe the middle-class economic narrative as very convincing—11 points higher than when they hear the economic message first. Among white working-class voters in particular, this effect produced a 13-point jump in intensity for the Democrats’ middle-class economic message (from 27 to 40 percent).
Clearly, these white working-class and downscale voters are open to a bold Democratic agenda and prefer it to a conservative Republican vision for the country. To win their support, however, voters are demanding, with growing ferocity, that Democrats battle against America’s corrupted politics and for a government that really works for the average citizen.
If Greenberg is correct and these voters are gettable but not until the Democrats meet their “ferocious demands” that the government work for them and not big donors, then it should be obvious what to do about McConnell’s omnibus rider.
Fight.
Right?
I’d just like to add that Jon fucking Tester, a Montana Senator, is more willing to stand up to the MiC and CIA/DHS than Wall Street.
It goes beyond Democrats being feckless and sleazy. They really do believe in that neoliberal shit.
It would help if you told us what you are talking about.
http://www.ibtimes.com/political-capital/wall-street-democrats-work-block-new-regulations-after-floo
d-campaign-cash-2196874
LOL Now where do we go for bold Dems?
When will Democrats get smart enough to call it the McConnell Legal Bribery Bill?
…When they start thinking it unseemly to take the cash themselves.
McConnell’s bill looks like a lame attempt to close the barn door after the horse is out and restore the party power to discipline candidates and officials by withholding party money. You have to be able to outbid the outsiders to do that.
I think it’s primarily a play by McConnell to rein in those big moneyed interests beyond the reach of the party. Call it “The Mitch MCconnell Self Protection Plan.”
Hmm, it sounds like all those “downscale” voters should be feeling the Bern. But that apparently isn’t the case so far.
I’m convinced it’s because of the “S” word, which is conflated with the “C” word.
Today’s message from Fantasyland http://finance.yahoo.com/news/charles-koch–my-body-is-full-of-harpoons-202130428.html#
I’ve never been convinced that purely process arguments amount to much politically. We get agreement, but not enough to actually shift votes.
You have to link the money to actual policy changes.
Bernie is running a series of ads about the “rigged economy” here in New Hampshire. He is making the connection.
This is as good a political ad as I have ever seen.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pnSQVixz7wg
I don’t think many of those voters are “gettable” without a radical change in rhetoric (as opposed to position) on things like Syrian refugees.
But if there is a way to do it, Bernie is saying everything that needs to be said.
Unfortunately, there is no way for Clinton to make this argument believably in a general election.
It’s just another reason why I support Sanders. If 2016 shows that the Democratic Party can win (especially if they get the House) without kissing up to the plutocrats, it’ll go a long way towards weaning us off of money in politics. Granted, there will always be the opportunistic parasites who will be willing to hurt their constituents and the image of the Party to enrich their career that way, but it should at least impart some courage to the people who wish it was some other way, but, you know, we really need that money.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/features/marchtoinequality/twoparadoxicalpolitics/
A great read to supplement this view.
Agree that it is well worth reading. And while it doesn’t provide a roadmap to move forward with a public policy to reduce inequality, it does highlight why progressive/liberal messaging on this issue isn’t compelling to a solid majority of the public.
This bit should be pondered:
That is certainly an issue that should resonate at the state and local level for Dems. Voters do not need to wait for the Congress to raise the minmum wage.
I believe I postulated that bit recently.
A couple of us have, but not as well articulated and factually as that excerpt. And the excerpt is clearly not racist.
An important point to internalize from this reporting is that it reveals progressives have not clearly won the American people on behalf of all of our preferred economic policies. The public is with solidly with us on minimum wage hikes, but is not solidly with us on much else.
It has been very strange to observe some liberals and progressives place all the blame for our disastrous 2010 and 2014 results on National and State Democratic Parties, Democratic elected officials and candidates, and Democrat and Dem-leaning voters themselves. The consistent cry is that when Democrats govern as loud and proud liberals, they will win more often, and when voters fail to support the candidates furthest to the left, they are suckers or worse.
On the governing side, these cries are happening at the same moment that the Parties have completed their complete ideological cleavage; the most conservative Congressional Democrat has been shown to have voted for more liberal policies than the most liberal Congressional Republican in multiple Congressional years in a row. And this is not solely due to the shifts rightward by Congressional Republicans in recent years; Congressional Democrats, on balance, have also shifted leftward, decade after decade:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/04/14/how-congress-became-more-partisan-over-ti
me-in-four-charts
And, painfully obviously, there is an extremely wide ideological and rhetorical gulf between all current Democratic and Republican POTUS candidates.
I am in full agreement with the most strident leftists on this blog that the political process is highly corrupted by the new oceans of money in political campaigns and corporate media control. But it is possible to be too liberal to get elected. And if we’re not getting elected in 2016 and holding power afterwards, we could lose many of the major progressive Legislative and Judicial wins which have taken place from the Teddy Roosevelt Administration to the Obama Administration. We’ve already lost some, and the Republicans are monkey-wrenching all others.
I’m a Bernie supporter, but if we call Hillary a DINO, against evidence, and call her supporters stupid and deluded, it’s hard for me to see how we’re putting ourselves in a position to win the next Presidential election. An important part of our 2008 and 2012 wins, smashing wins that many on this blog seem to want us to willfully forget, is that our side put aside our primary campaign (’08) and policy (’12) fights and did the work to win each November.
The campaigns which have been run by all of the Republican POTUS candidates show them all to be dangerous and unaccceptable. That’s isn’t being partisan; that’s being real, and the last people who should be claiming otherwise are people who claim to speak for good leftist policies.
In response to BooMan’s post, I agree that Democrats should fight against McConnell’s move here. Campaign finance reform is an issue where we have the support of American voters, and politicians should help lead voters to maintain their support. It’s not an economic issue, but today’s campaign financing laws sure do affect economic policy.
Our candidates will get clobbered even more severely in 2016 campaign financing and the MSM will enable anti-factual talking points from the money men, but we’ve got the American people on our side and the fight is well worth it.
” But it is possible to be too liberal to get elected.”
That’s why I cheer the Louisiana Governor win. He is too far right for me but not for Louisiana.
“but if we call Hillary a DINO, against evidence”
Against what evidence? The evidence clearly points that she is, except on social issues. And I think that’s only lip service because she needs those social stands to get elected. Forget what people say, look at what people do, or you will be a perpetual chump.
The evidence from Hillary’s Senate years is that her voting record placed her consistently in the top quarter of most liberal Senators in the Democratic Caucus. For two straight years at the end of her term, her votes placed her as the 11th most liberal Senator. That’s what Hillary did, not what she said.
There’s plenty to attack Hillary on legitimately. To characterize her overall as a conservative Democrat is not supported by the evidence. Her record and rhetoric are more conservative than Bernie’s, undeniably.
If you buy into the idea that economic liberalism and social liberalism are non-overlapping magisteria (which is supported by post-AMC United States political history) and that social liberalism cred is more important than economic liberalism cred as far as being an American leftist is concerned (which is supported by post-WW2 United States political history) then sure.
Of course, since I’m a materialist and a utilitarian and thus think that social and economic leftism are two sides of the same coin, I think that HRC’s well-documented hostility towards the poor and her plutocratic bootlicking is enough to call her a conservative Democratic.
When Brutus is called a traitor, we find his many appeals to his acts of genuine loyalty prior to Caesar’s ghetto-stabbing to contradict this claim unconvincing. ‘But sir, I donated a portion of my liver to your children and refused to act on insider information to usurp your position and defended you even at the cost of my social standing! I’ve done much more positive things for you than your other, more passive lackeys! The fact that I plucked your eye out and stuck a pickled plum in there doesn’t change the fact that I’m one of your most loyal servants!’
Well-documented hostility towards the poor…Caesar’s ghetto-stabbing…
Colorful.
Clinton has a record. Show us her long list of hostile-to-the-poor votes in the Senate. Tell us how Hillary’s hostility to the poor was reflected in her 1993-94 efforts to pass a health reform bill which was more progressive than the ACA.
Alternatively, we may agree to disagree. It’s cool. Feel as you wish.
I notice that you’re fixated on that ‘show me the Senate votes!’ line of argument, as if that’s the only way to judge how a candidate will behave in office. At any rate, Matt Bruening can explain it better than I can:
http://mattbruenig.com/2015/11/06/my-beef-with-hillary-is-mainly-that-she-is-an-enemy-of-the-poor/
This sits next to Senator Clinton’s vote for the AUMF as the biggest black marks on her record. The welfare reform policy was bad, and so was her rhetoric in supporting it. It’s been sixteen years since her welfare reform statements, and fourteen years since her vote to authorize W. Bush to conduct war.
She didn’t vote to cut welfare programs and other programs for the middle-class and poor when she was in the Senate. She voted against extending the Bush tax cuts for people with high incomes. She voted to increase benefits to senior citizens and the unemployed.
She’s running on increasing the minimum wage and creating tax incentives for employers to give higher compensation to their workers. She’s also running on increasing Social Security benefits and creating universal preschool programs, as well as supporting much higher wages for home care and child care providers.
Let’s look at her record and her campaign planks in full. I’ve contributed to Bernie’s campaign because he supports even stronger and more comprehensive policies, but I don’t need to believe, against evidence, that Hillary is a Republican poor-hater to arrive at that position.
The main reason I work to keep us on firmer factual ground on Hillary’s record is that Bernie has no plausible path to the Democratic POTUS nomination at the moment. Events happen and things can change, but if we’re getting into our corner and loudly and falsely proclaiming that Hillary is the devil, we are risking helping the Republicans to regain the White House.
Yeah, AND? So fucking what? It’s not like she’s plausibly shed the mentality that led to those decisions since then. She’s still getting nailed to the wall on this because she hasn’t showed sufficient contrition since then. Either with direct challenges to see if she’s learned since then (lol, I’m proud to make Iran my enemy and get a load of these Syrian no-fly zones) or indirectly (look, we need this Wall Street money and the TPP and bankruptcy reform bill was weregild for the greater good, so back the fuck off!).
And yet as of today she’s whining endlessly about Bernies’ plans to raise taxes on the 250,000 Middle Class. http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2015/11/hillary-clinton-middle-class
She said that she was open to means-testing raising the retirement age for less physically-demanding positions.
Yeah. About that: http://static.politico.com/54/24/77b932744dbe80c0b496dec2eedb/hillary-clinton-caregiver-tax-plan.pdf
Again, I’ll let Matt Bruening explain it.
That’s not an indictment against Bernie, that’s an indictment against the Democratic Party.
Even if she merrily skips to the nomination and a comfortable general election win, she’s fucking fucked for 2016-2020. Even in the very unlikely event that she keeps her warhawk tendencies under control and doesn’t screw over the Democratic Party that way, with no House for her Presidency and no Senate after 2018, she’s absolutely helpless against a GOP that is fervently pulling the veto levers in an attempt to stave off demographic doom. Clinton is absolutely fucked short of a miracle of GOP implosion or a well-timed invention that’s akin to the Internet was in the 90s; if she’s not fucked in the nomination or general then when in actual office.
And I really don’t appreciate you so-called pragmatists setting up a Dolchstoßlegende as neuroses-soothing political insurance while you’ve been studiously ignoring for months that you have a gimcrack candidate on your hands and the best-case scenario is a Pyrrhic victory. How about instead of trying to convince people that the evacuation of the Titanic won’t be so bad and that they don’t have to worry about icebergs for the next three days (and in any case, it’s the XO’s fault for pre-emptively driving the more anxious people into a panic with talk of an impending crash), you instead face reality and come up with a plausible plan to minimize or, God forbid, avert damage?
See, you’re listing here policy discussions which are MILES away from the policy differences the Republican candidates are positing. In addition, there are counterfactuals on many of the characterizations here:
Yes, the Syrian no-fly zone policy would almost certainly be a bad one. I don’t like the Wall Street defensiveness from her. She’s got to be dragged slowly to some of her good positions, and doesn’t lead on many. Her AUMF and bankruptcy bill votes are indefensible. I’m supporting Bernie for a lot of reasons. My view of Hillary doesn’t have to leave planet Earth to support that position.
You reach your apparent conclusion that Hillary would have less chance than Bernie of working with a Congress under Democratic control with no evidence whatsoever. That’s a big problem for one of your main points here.
My best plan to minimize and avert damage is to keep today’s Republican Party out of the Executive Branch and with as little control of the Legislative branch as possible as long as is necessary for their leaders and base to regain their sanity. If you’ve decided that the United States will face a complete economic and/or foreign policy collapse of some sort whether Hillary or anyone from the GOP clown car takes over the White House, and that there would be little to no difference between Hillary or a GOP President of the odds of collapse and/or our response to that collapse, you have a point of view I disagree with.
Who gives a care about all that? The point is that whether we analyze her campaign in gestalt or by looking at individual pieces, it’s clear that she’s an economic centrist who doesn’t see the economic of anyone below upper-middle class as something to get overly alarmed about.
Yeah, that’s better than what the Republicans are offering, but so fucking what? You’re still fixated on how catastrophic a Roman win would be without measuring how awful two Pyrrhic victories to stave off Roman wins would be. My analysis revolves around the fact that she’s enabling them for big victories in 2018 and 2020. Her platform doesn’t convince people not already in the Democratic fold to vote for her and it doesn’t turn out weaker Democratic Party voters. Those two things spell disaster. Both because it leaves her at the mercy of an obstructionist Congress and also because it increases the damage done in midterms — effects which feed off of each other.
Honestly, I don’t have any evidence that Bernie will get Congress. I put a lot of faith into electoral analysis done by political scientists such as Judis and Frank (the What’s the Matter With Kansas guy) but at the end of the day Sanders is heading into uncharted territory. The last time a Democratic candidate ran on unbowed cultural egalitarianism + economic liberalism they got utterly creamed — and in the 40+ years since McGovern, no candidate has tried to repeat that formula.
However, I do know that HRC’s formula won’t work. She’s planning to do nothing substantially different, policy wise, than Dukakis/BC/Gore/Kerry/Obama. After a brief tease with the possibility of picking up white working class women, it’s apparent that she won’t be doing much better than other New Democrats on that score; she is making no serious play for demographics not already in the Obama Coalition. I’m not even going to bring in her other problems, because they’re not really measurable. But the stuff we can measure shows that she’s not going to win the House under her own power. The 2% growth of Millenials + racial minority voters every Presidential Election since 2000 will allow her to easily win the White House absent a scandal or Obama implosion, but the growth won’t break the logjam of Congress.
You’re pretty much asking me whether I’d like to be resigned to almost-certain failure in 2020 or take a chance to avoid it. Bernie Sanders is not my first choice, but he’s the best we have right now.
Why do you disagree with that? Let’s say that HRC wins in 2016. The Democratic Party retakes the Senate and keeps the White House, but doesn’t win the House. Explain to me what you think is going to happen during her Presidency, especially as reflected in the electoral outcomes of 2018, 2020, and 2022.
I mean, here’s my analysis:
Now tell me, how do you think that a HRC Presidency will go?
I’m finding this exchange worthwhile; hopefully others are as well.
If you think the Republican Party will remain as bad as they act in the scenarios you paint in your analysis, then the last thing we should be doing is mischaracterizing the record of the likely Democratic POTUS nominee and ignoring the many parts of her record and campaign which engage our base and potential voters.
In our exchanges we’ve begun to chop away at the mischaracterizations of the record. Correcting these mischaracterizations are important, because these supposed “facts” are some of the things people use to develop their strongly held feelings about Hillary.
Responses:
Concern about future electoral cycles is admirable, but electing one of the GOP POTUS candidates in 2016 really would be a disaster. I rebel against anything that increases the chances of that.
Still setting up your Dolchstoßlegende, eh? Funny thing about that argument: bringing up her actual failings such as her warhawkery and neoliberalism and her flip-flopping and her shady finances can suddenly count as mischaracterization as long as there’s no objective standard for it.
Frankly, I find this line of argument hilariously bathetic and twee. It assumes that the voters are too stupid to justify their misgivings about HRC and that if only the Berniebots kept their mouth shut we wouldn’t have dismotivated them with ugly facts and history. Let me tell you something: that 50-60% ‘will do or say anything to win the Presidency/untrustworthiness’ rating was not a result of Sanders’ 7 months of campaigning.
The numbers show that despite Obama’s so-called awesome ground-game and unprecedented organization, 2012 Obama only did slightly better than 2004 Kerry.
2004 219,553K 122,349K 55.7%
2008 229,945K 131,407K 57.1%
2012 235,248K 129,235K 54.9%
Now, those numbers don’t tell the whole story because they don’t tell the turnout for individual candidates’ bases. However: http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2013/05/08/six-take-aways-from-the-census-bureaus-voting-report
/ shows that Obama tanked with youth vote turnout. The only area that 2012 Obama did significantly better in terms of turnout than 2004 Kerry is with older blacks — he lost a whopping 14% of black males 18-29 going from 2008 to 2012. Democrats did a lot better with vote %s with Latinos and Asians over those 8 years, but that’s due to what the GOP was doing instead of any targeted appeals by Democrats. I don’t expect the GOP to pull its head out of its ass by 2016, but it’s a huge threat going forward for 2020.
As for that, Sam Wang can explain it better than I can:
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/03/opinion/sunday/the-great-gerrymander-of-2012.html?_r=0
Now, people move around and shit so the margin for 2012 isn’t necessarily the one for 2016. But given that the direction of movement around the country is towards urbanization (in which Democrats already win by huge margins), we shouldn’t expect much of a change for 2016.
Why should I care that she hired her? Is he going to advocate anything different than the legions of other post-Dukakis advisors? You can have Napoleon and Sun Tzu on your staff, but if you’re forcing them to come up with a way to win Operation Barbarossa despite the blizzard they’re not going to do much better than mediocre generals.
To attribute Democratic weakness with the white working class to racism is the centrist’s first resort to justify abdicating responsibility.
Here’s an electoral factoid for you: 2012 Obama did better with the non-Southern/non-urban white working class than Gore and Kerry did. Now, granted, this was solely due to his relative strength with white millenials. But the takeaway is that, outside the South, direct racism towards the President wasn’t that big of a factor in absolute Democratic weakness relative to that of other candidates. And because it wasn’t a factor, we shouldn’t expect it to be any better with HRC.
What, you think this shit is new? Birth certificate, food stamp President, Obamaphones, democratic plantation, “YOU LIE”… those were all Obama-disrespecting bullshit memes being propagated between that time period, and yet, black youth turnout still dropped. It rose by about 6% with young black women, but dropped by 14% with young black males.
Refutes it how? Their numbers show an across-the-board decrease in youth support and flat-out state it. However, because Obama had such a large advantage he was able to tank with the youth vote going from 2008 to 2012 and still win a convincing share. Sort of how the Democratic Party was still able to hold a supermajority despite getting their asses kicked up and down the street in 1938.
Similarly, Obama didn’t lose much support going from 2008 to 2012 in age groups (he did much worse with the white and black youth vote, but made up for it with the Latino and Asian vote) except for 18-29, which he lost by 6%. This led him to getting only a 4% victory margin compared to 2008’s 8%. I’m not sure how Pew’s rather misleading title contradicts what I said.
The 24/34 analysis doesn’t tell the whole story. Here are all of the seats that the Democrats have a chance of winning in 2016 absent unique factors — that is, states that Obama won in 2012 or didn’t lose by more than 10%.
Marco Rubio – Florida
Mark Kirk – Illinois
Roy Blunt – Missouri
Richard Burr – North Carolina
Kelly Ayotte – NH
Rob Portman – Ohio
Patrick Toomey – PA
Ron Johnson – WI
That’s 8 plausible opportunities for pickups.
On the flip side, for the 2018 Senate election let’s look at states that 2012 Obama didn’t win by at least 10%.
Tim Kaine – VA
Joe Manchin – WV
Tammy Baldwin – WI
Bob Casey, Jr. – PA
Sherrod Brown – Ohio
Heidi Keitkamp – North Dakota
Jon Tester – Montana
Claire McCaskill – Missouri
Bill Nelson – Florida
Joe Donnelly – IN
Angus King – Maine
Debbie Stabenow – Michigan
That’s 12 plausible opportunities for pickups in 2018. Which would put the Republican Party at 58 seats going into 2018 if both parties clean-swept the other during with every available opportunity. If the Democratic Party doesn’t do too well in 2016, that number could be higher. Hence why I gave that seemingly high range.
Much less likely. However, when the war goes south (as they invariably do) she’ll still get the electoral blowback for foreign policy kerfluffles. And no one is going to buy the excuse of ‘hey, a GOP President would’ve bungled this intervention more than I did, cut me some slack’ when the voters start getting pissed off about rising body counts and war budgets.
If war is inevitable, at least let a Republican be in the hotseat for the fallout.
I don’t know, will we stop having to appoint people to these agencies after 2018? Hillary Clinton will be much better than any GOPer… for 2016-2018. It’s 2018-2024 I’m worried about. Because we won’t even have a ‘but HRC would be better than a Republican!’ argument if the GOP succeeds in gridlocking hard enough — we WILL get a Republican anyway.
Electing a Republican in 2020 would be an even bigger disaster. If I’m forced to cut off my left hand or my right hand, as a southpaw I choose my right hand.
Obviously, the better choice would be not to elect a Republican in either election year. And I don’t think HRC is up to the task of blocking a Republican counterattack. She’s too reliant on a demographic and a strategy for that demographic (Obama Coalition) that leaves her politically vulnerable in midterms and she doesn’t even have a plan to alleviate the biggest weakness of that demographic (low turnout).
I’ve given myself time to think about what you’re communicating. Your chief concern appears to be who will be the standard-bearer of the Democratic Party and progressive/liberal movement. Your view is that Hillary would be a poor leader of the Party/movement, which would create significant problems for progressive governance after 2018 and for Dem candidates in future elections.
You also play around with the idea that Clinton will have an electability problem while conceding that she would probably win in both 2016 and 2020, so I think we can agree there’s no large concern about her real electability. That will be put to the test before the general election, though; if she moves through the primaries as easily as it appears she will, then our electability question will be answered substantially.
You posit here that one of the chief paths to more success during a Sanders Presidency is that Bernie would grow the progressive electorate in 2016 and beyond. Again, this will and must be put to the test. I would love to see the electorate grow. If Bernie doesn’t win the Democratic nomination, it will have been because his campaign didn’t grow the electorate significantly. We will see.
Your claims of particular problems you anticipate re. Hillary’s interactions with Congress are puzzling to me, given that you concede there is no solid evidence that a Sanders Presidency would bring better Congressional election results than a Clinton Presidency. Wouldn’t Bernie have major problems getting decent nominees placed in the Federal Judiciary if the Republicans have 60 Senators in 2019? Wouldn’t the Congressional GOP caucuses gridlock as hard as possible in response to proposals from President Sanders unless the electorate forced them to cooperate?
You write “If war is inevitable, at least let a Republican be in the hotseat for the fallout.” One of the chief reasons I would strongly support Hillary over any of today’s Republican candidates is that I don’t think major war deployments would be inevitable under a Clinton Presidency. Some air warfare, tiny deployments of military advisors, and other mischief would continue, but that seems to be the way the U.S. electorate wants it. There’s never been electoral blowback for these small-scale interventions and secret missions; it’s the major use of ground troops to serve an unachievable goal which have been rejected by the voters in recent decades. I believe Hillary would most likely avoid major deployments. I am even more certain Sanders would as well, but I do not believe Bernie would end all current or future military and secret actions, and I believe there would be electoral blowback against him and other Dem Party candidates if he did.
You include an large caveat in your highlighted electoral factoid. In the previous sentence, you castigate my claim that some white working class slippage of support for Dem candidates is related to the existence of an African-American as standard-bearer of the Party. Then in the factoid sentence you leak the news that there is direct evidence that the Southern white working class has fled even more substantially from the Democratic Party during the Obama Era. This supports the probability that Hillary or Bernie would win Dem votes from white Southerners that have been lost from 2008 to 2014. And if we want a better Congress for our next President to work with, we need to win more Congressional and Legislative elections in the South.
Finally, I don’t understand your chart re. electoral turnout for the last three POTUS elections. Here are the National numbers for the Kerry and Obama campaigns:
2004- 59,027,115 votes
2008- 69,499,428 votes
2012- 65,918,507 votes
There is no question that Obama’s campaigns successfully grew our Presidential electorate. Clinton has wisely and publicly supported almost all of the President’s policies during her campaign.
That’s an erroneous ‘progressive’ modifier you stuck on there. Hillary Clinton (and any Democrat that wanted to run her playbook) would create significant problems for any kind of Democratic governance, centrist or liberal. We’re not talking about guaranteed half-loaf measures versus gambled full-loaf, we’re talking about the very real possibility of GOP dominance.
Well, sure. In the sense that the lone volunteer mouse who failed to bell the cat after the other mice vetoed his request to slip sleeping pills into the cat’s food (no one wants to crawl through the toilet piping) is responsible for the unbelled cat. Nonetheless, I still feel that the Democratic Party putting the New Democrats out to pasture and moving forward with a combination of social and economic liberalism is the only way out of any potential messes for the next three or four Presidential cycles.
Bernie’s just a figurehead. He’s not my number-one choice, but he’s the only mouse volunteering right now. If he fails to win the nomination, the dream continues. The only thing that would cause me to abandon the dream is if Bernie wins and significantly underperforms Gore/Kerry/Obama’s performance in absence of economic calamity or a campaign/Obama administration scandal.
The crux of my argument for supporting a Sanders-style campaign is that the Democrats will have a very difficult time winning Congress unless does one or both of:
A.) The Democratic Party finds a way to turn out its less hardy voters — that is, Latinos, Asians, the poor, and the youth. Despite people crowing about Obama’s record-high turnout, he didn’t do particularly better than other post-Dukakis Dems except with older blacks (where he boosted turnout by an incredible 6% over Kerry in 2012). Given that Obama didn’t run a particularly ideologically different campaign than other post-Dukakis Dems, this leads me to believe that doing more of the same ‘get out the vote’ chestnuts (microtargeting, advertisements, social media organization) isn’t going to do the trick. They need to find a way to motivate these voters to vote rather than greasing the skids to make it easier for them to vote.
B.) The Democratic Party needs to find a way to reach out to voters not in the Obama Coalition. We’ve been hearing repeated warnings (mostly from the establishment Dems) that there’s no way to get the white working class without stabbing the Rainbow Coalition in the back, because they’re SO
racistCONSERVATIVE that any other weregild appeals get ignored.As you might have guessed, I think that upgrading social liberalism + economic centrism to social liberalism + economic liberalism will do the trick. Again, I don’t have any direct evidence that this course of action will pay dividends. I can only point to non-American elections and extrapolate from statistics (i.e. showing that Millenials are significantly less bigoted than Baby Boomers and that contemporary Baby Boomers are less bigoted than they were as young adult Baby Boomers). But until I have some direct evidence that it doesn’t work much better than Obama/HRC’s cocktail of economic centrism + social liberalism, I’m going to keep pushing that point.
The Gulf War and its 90% Presidential Approval Rating says hello. Americans are not against major use of ground troops towards unachievable goals. They’re against paying the piper for said deployment, no matter how frivolous the deployment is. If the piper asks for a pittance, they let the circus organizers off of the hook. And like it or not, they’re pretty cavalier and hypocritical about being rah-rah towards the opening, exciting phases of war.
If HRC becomes President, I’m not going to bet that we’re going to get into a major engagement. However, I don’t have much confidence that she’ll resist the siren call of the possibility of another Gulf War, especially if it looks like her Presidency is stagnating. And given her actual actions and rhetoric, I simply don’t think that she has the willpower to unnecessarily avoid engagements, especially if they look to have a minor cost or be resolved easily. But then again, that’s how many of the United States’ most unpopular wars start, isn’t it?
If the voting bloc was more uniform, this would be a good objection. But note that Obama has been driving up margins in places where the Democratic Party already gets completely creamed. Since his performance — outside a select few Appalachian counties where he has been facing sudden and unusual oppobrium — fits a trend that has been going on since 1994, negating the 3-4% points isn’t going to help the Democratic Party. KY, MS and AL went from -15% to -20% to -23% from Gore to Kerry to 2012 Obama. Big whoop. The 6% increase in turnout with the black vote (along with not losing much support from older blacks, who turn out more) is worth a lot more than turning dark red states slightly pinker.
It’s even hard to make the ‘well, that 3% is important for off-year races’ margins, because Obama has a very high mismatch (like most post-Dukakis Dems) between votes that went for him and one that went for the local races. And not in his favor. His coattails are pretty weak even accounting for Gerrymandering and reduced turnout.
We added 15 million more eligible voters between those eight years. The raw voter turnout % shows that 2008 Obama did a little better than Kerry and 2012 Obama did a little worse. Obama looks better if you look at crosstabs, but not much better — the huge increase in black turnout and the minor increase in Latino/Asian turnout is offset by the huge drop in youth turnout.
Bottom line, 2012 Obama hasn’t done anything much better in terms of motivating the Democratic base than Kerry did. Raw demography (along with Bush’s peerless relative strength with Latinos) is what turned Kerry’s narrow defeat into a convincing win for Obama. Their relative success rather closely maps to brute demographic growth.
Remember, going by exit polling, if Dukakis had faced Obama’s electorate and gotten the same margins he did in 1988, he would’ve won in 2012. If Obama had faced Dukakis’s electorate and gotten the same margins he did in 2012, he would’ve lost in 1988. There’s nothing particularly notable about Obama’s performance, other than the fact that it allows the establishment wing of the Democratic Party to entertain the delusion that there’s nothing wrong with the party’s electoral playbook for non-Presidential elections and if there is then there’s nothing that can be done because we can’t run Obama again.
I think we’ve talked the Clinton/Sanders campaign out for now; thanks for the exchange. A couple of responses to your electorate points:
You dismiss the increase of many millions of voters who voted for Obama in each of these elections in comparison to those who voted for Kerry. In your dismissal, you rely on the fact that that there were 15 million more registered voters in 2012 than there were in 2004, an increase in registered voters which outpaced the increase in the population of Americans eligible to register. But we know that the Obama campaigns placed a very high priority on registering voters, and those Presidential elections were the main things motivating Americans to register. Can’t it be said that Obama and his campaign were primarily (but not entirely) responsible for that disproportionate increase in registered voters?
There is a similar logical fallacy in the Dukakis/Obama electorate comparison. The first Obama campaign took place 20 years after the Dukakis campaign. People who make this comparison need us to accept their incorrect presumption that different portions of the electorate (women, minorities, youth, etc.) remain fixed in their support for the POTUS candidates for the two Parties from election to election. You fall into this trap hours after you claim the possibility that Hillary would fail to hang onto voting blocs from 2012, and document Obama losing small portions of his 2008 voting blocs in 2012.
Yes, and? That kind of increase over 8 years is normal.
1980 to 1988 had an increase in RV by 17 million, with a raw population increase of 18 million.
1988 to 1996 had an increase in RV by 15 million, with a raw population increase of 25 million.
1996 to 2004 had an increase in RV by 22 million, with a raw population increase of 23 million.
2004 to 2012 had an increase in RV by 15 million, with a raw population increase of 21 million.
Obama’s performance isn’t noteworthy. In the context of history, it’s average. Reagan and Kerry/Bush would have a better claim to having massive success registrating voters efforts than Obama. This is of course somewhat unfair to Obama since the 2004-2012 population increase caused the median age of the United States to lower, but not by a lot.
No. For two reasons: 1.) Turnout and registration % always increase in high-priority elections, especially ones in which economic turmoil is at the forefront of American consciousness. 2.) It’s hard to measure where and how registration increased. If registration increased primarily in Obama areas, that’d be at least supporting evidence that his GOTV efforts worked. If it’s uniform across the country or disproportionate in rural areas, you can’t necessarily say that Obama had a positive influence on that.
This is why when I talk about Democratic Party electoral demographics, I use the term post-Dukakis Democrats. Because from election-to-election, the parties have been getting very similar proportions by race, region, income, and gender. There’s only three noteworthy changes between Democratic and Republican proportions between 1988 -> 1992 -> 1996 -> 2000 -> 2004 -> 2008 -> 2012.
1.) The Democratic Party opened up a seemingly-permanent youth gap (buoyed by Asians, Latinos, and whites) starting in 2000. This is dampened some by opening a negative age gap for older voters, though their weakness with older voters isn’t as pronounced as their strength with younger voters.
2.) The Democratic Party started doing noticeably better in the Midwest and Northeast starting 2008, mostly because of factor 1 but also because they started winning white urban professionals, many but not all are <45 years old.
3.) The Democratic Party started doing much better with Asian voters.
Because the exit polling proportions remain relatively static from election-to-election, I feel pretty confident in stating that the Democratic Party’s success is more due to brute, passive demographic changes than anything that the party is actively doing. Kerry and Gore’s narrow losses should be viewed in context of Obama’s comfortable victory. This is why I’m mostly dismissive about peoples’ highlighting of Obama’s personal efficacy.
It’s also why I keep stating that unless HRC or Obama is racked by a scandal, economic calamity, or foreign policy disaster that she’ll very comfortably win the Presidency (if she wins the nomination) despite day-to-day kerfluffles such as her progressive-moderate flipflopping and her ‘9/11 is why Wall Street donated to me’ gaffes.
I agree that, given the Parties’ current policy platforms and campaigns behaviors, demographics favor the Democratic POTUS candidates moving forward. But the voting behavior of these demographic groups have been in steady response to what the Parties and their leaders are doing. Your worthwhile analysis here even touches on that idea when you note that the Democratic Party has been doing better with Asian voters and urban professionals. Added to that is the Democratic Party’s double-digit gains with Hispanic voters in the last decade.
Given the desperate and angry path the Republican base is insisting on pursuing, I can agree with your description of the demographics being brute, but the demographics appear far from passive to my eyes. Republicans are actively alienating large non-white demographic blocs, Democrats are actively courting those same blocs, and voter behaviors are changing as a result.
” creating tax incentives for employers”
Bingo! Sounds like Romney.
The tax incentive policy she has proposed is nothing like Romney proposed. In Hillary’s proposal it is gained only after large employers share more of their profits with employees through compensation increases.
Then where’s the incentive if the bottom line is lower?
Smoke and Mirrors. Faux Populism.
Look at who she surrounds herself with. Look at her campaign staff and her previous campaign staff. Look at who she takes
bribes“campaign contributions” from.No economic liberal would associate with them. Her whole staff is a subsidiary of Goldman-Sachs.
Here’s her current campaign staff and list of advisers:
http://www.p2016.org/clinton/clintonorg.html
Which of these are subsidiaries of Goldman-Sachs?
I dunno, but HRC herself is a pretty good minion of Norquist.
https://twitter.com/rubycramer/status/671061159487938561
I’ll withdraw the whole staff comment.
However, http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2014/06/hillary-clintons-goldman-sachs-problem
And there are some sickening people on that staff list:
Terry McAuliffe
Charles E. Schumer
Democratic economic issues are popular. Democratic social issues less so. You won’t win suburban votes pushing black reparations and larger welfare programs (yes, I know most recipients are white, but not white suburbanites, whites are not homogeneous). You will get votes pushing for less taxes on the middle class and more on the rich. You will get votes for free or reduced tuition college and banking reform. Gay rights is a wash, with older voters not liking it and younger voters liking it. Somewhat so on abortion rights, although I think the non-religious support them on the basis of government should not dictate individual choice rather than positive fervor. What else? Foreign policy? I think suburbanites are sick to death of mid-east wars, but like Vietnam, are afraid to just quit. “Stay the Hell out and let them kill each other” is what I hear most. Despite Republican bed-wetting, most don’t believe an Islamic state in control of the middle east can seriously threaten nuclear armed America, except by terrorism which explains the hostility to refugee placement. That one, I’ll concede is humanitarian, but it’s an electoral dud.
The Dreamers and a path to citizenship not wrapped as outright amnesty (some kind of fig leaf needed) is fine with most people except outright bigots. At least here in the Chicago suburbs, people have seen and interacted with enough Hispanic people to discount the stereotypes. Again, except the outright racists. And again the younger generation has gone to public school with the Spanish kids. They’ve known them all their lives. They have no fear.
Exactly. I honestly don’t understand this logic. You think that a socialist/social democrat cocktail of social liberalism + economic liberalism is too leftist for the American public at large and will lead to defeat… so you instead support a cocktail of social liberalism + economic centrism, which isn’t too leftist as to alienate votes.
Classic composition and division fallacy thinking.
News flash: it’s not the economic leftism that alienates Traditional America, it’s the social liberalism. And as long as you plan to advance social liberalism (and the Democratic Party should, not least because it’s the most moral path) you should be finding a way to offer enough weregild to encourage defections of voters on the margins of the GOP coalition.
While “distrust in government” is practically an American birthright, it has decreased during certain periods of US history enough that goo-goo became possible. It’s easy to see that the GOP has been pushing the “fear/hate of government” meme since the 1960s, how is it that they have avoided being saddled with being the poster child for bad government? Is it because Democrats haven’t themselves been sufficiently better so that the contrast is clear? Or have their pushbacks been much too weak to be heard? Or are they comfy with being the minority party that occasionally gets to be the majority but not solidly enough that they don’t do more than tweak GOP policies?
It’s not difficult to see why, “cut taxes” easily resonates with voters b/c they can abstract the link between cutting taxes and more money in their pockets. And if they don’t end up with more money, it must be because taxes haven’t been cut enough. Why are they reluctant to support higher taxes on the wealthy goes to another American value — “fairness” or the perception of it. Plus working/middle class people can’t see any linkage between higher taxes on the wealthy and their own pocketbooks.
Raising the minimum wage is broadly popular and provides the clue as to what Democrats/progressives should focus on. “Income inequality” is too vague. “Your income is too damn low” is more direct. And government is the solution.
Hmm. Good point. Republicans aren’t responsible for bad government. Bureaucrats are responsible for bad government. That’s how they weasel out. In truth, Republican political appointees are responsible for bad government.
Now with that meme, Republicans can run for office on a platform of shutting down government because “government is always bad because of lazy/incompetent/liberal bureaucrats”.