Before there was a Tea Party on the right, there was George Wallace on the left. Or George Wallace in the party of the left. Or something. I’m not sure George Wallace can be explained exactly, except to say that what we’re seeing now with Trump and Carson and Cruz? Yeah, if you’re old enough, you’ve pretty much seen it before.
Ironically, though, it’s George McGovern who is going to play the role of Ted Cruz here. Of course, he’s also going to be playing the role of Bernie Sanders. It’s kind of confusing.
Let Hunter S. Thompson explain.
One of the crucial moments of the ’72 primary campaign came on election night in Florida, March 14th, when McGovern – who had finished a dismal sixth, behind even Lindsay and Muskie – refused to follow their sour example and blame his poor showing on that Evil Racist Monster, George Wallace, who had just swept every county in the state. Moments after both Lindsay and Muskie had appeared on all three networks to denounce the Florida results as tragic proof that at least half the voters were ignorant dupes and nazis, McGovern came on and said that although he couldn’t agree with some of the things Wallace said and stood for, he sympathized with the people who’d voted for “The Governor” because they were “angry and fed up” with some of the things that are happening in this country.
“I feel the same way,” he added. “But unlike Governor Wallace, I’ve proposed constructive solutions to these problems.”
Yeah, so, this is a nice gambit. Don’t alienate the yahoos because you might need them later. And, in any case, there’s a little secret about Trump George Wallace that most people don’t understand. Except, McGovern understood it, and Ted Cruz understands it, too.
First, though, the candidate has to be willing to appall his own supporters and the decent half of the media.
It was not what the ballroom crowd wanted to hear, at that moment. Not after listening to both
KasichLindsay andBushMuskie denounceTrumpWallace as a cancer in the soul of America…butCruzMcGovern wasn’t talking to the people in that ballroom; he was making a very artful pitch to potential Wallace voters in the other primary states. Wisconsin was three weeks away, then Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan – and Wallace would be raising angry hell in every one of them.
And here’s where the secret comes in.
Sanders’sMcGovern’s braintrust, though, had come up with the idea that the Wallace vote was “soft” – that the typical Wallace voter, especially in the North and Midwest, was far less committed to Wallace himself than to his thundering, gut-level appeal to rise up and smash all the “pointy-headed bureaucrats in Washington” who’d been fucking them over for so long.The root of the Wallace magic was a cynical, showbiz instinct for knowing exactly which issues would whip a hall full of beer-drinking factory workers into a frenzy – and then doing exactly that, by howling down from the podium that he had an instant, overnight cure for all their worst afflictions: Taxes? Nigras? Army worms killing the turnip crop? Whatever it was, Wallace assured his supporters that the solution was actually real simple, and that the only reason they had any hassle with the government at all was because those greedy bloodsuckers in Washington didn’t want the problems solved, so they wouldn’t be put out of work.
Sound familiar?
Do you think maybe a lot of Trump supporters are less committed to Trump himself than to the gut-level appeal to smash the people who have been fucking them over?
The ugly truth is that Wallace had never even bothered to understand the problems – much less come up with any honest solutions – but “the Fighting Little Judge” has never lost much sleep from guilt feelings about his personal credibility gap.
I don’t think Carson has lost much sleep over his credibility gap either, but let’s keep this as simple as we can. Read the following and just exchange Trump for Wallace and Republican for Democrat and see if it sounds right.
George Wallace is one of the worst charlatans in politics, but there is no denying his talent for converting frustration into energy. What McGovern sensed in Florida, however – while Wallace was stomping him, along with all the others – was the possibility that Wallace appealed instinctively to a lot more people than would actually vote for him. He was stirring up more anger than he knew how to channel. The frustration was there, and it was easy enough to convert it – but what then? If Wallace had taken himself seriously as a presidential candidate – as a Democrat or anything else – he might have put together the kind of organization that would have made him a genuine threat in the primaries, instead of just a spoiler.
Uh oh. Could be that Alfred J. Tuchfarber is correct and Trump’s polling lead 60 days out from the Iowa caucuses doesn’t mean a hill of beans. On the other hand, this Wallace chap is winning every county in Florida in our little narrative here, so let’s not count Trump out too soon.
McGovern, on the other hand, had put together a fantastic organization – but until he went into Wisconsin he had never tried to tap the kind of energy that seemed to be flowing, perhaps by default, to Wallace. He had given it some thought while campaigning in New Hampshire, but it was only after he beat Muskie in two blue-collar, hard-hat wards in the Middle of Manchester that he saw the possibility of a really mind-bending coalition: A weird mix of peace freaks and hardhats, farmers and film stars, along with urban blacks, rural chicanos, the “youth vote”…a coalition that could elect almost anybody.
And that is where our comparison between today and 1972 breaks down, because it’s a socialist running for the nomination of the other party who is working on the theory that a lot of Wallace rage is soft and not particularly partisan or ideological. It is only loosely attached to Trump who is, anyway, basically a clown act.
The problem for McGovern was that the coalition of freaks and hardhats was big enough to win him the nomination but too small and fragile to even compete in the general. Sanders’ theory of the case is that the overmatched McGovern coalition is really about the same thing (sans most of the hardhats) as the twice victorious Obama coalition. Demographic changes have flipped the odds. If Sanders can bring back in some of the disaffected hardhats, he could create a progressive revolution in this country based less on identity politics than on class consciousness.
Sounds a bit utopian, I know, but McGovern showed that it isn’t entirely insane to try.
Could Sanders have that kind of plan? Maybe. Is he going to spend more time in South Carolina? He has to if he has any shot of it working. And not just rallies but townhall type things too.
The problem with this plan is very simple: Trump voters are Republicans, and they can’t vote in Democratic primaries.
Wallace voters were Democrats, and could.
I do think there is something to the theory that there is fury against the establishment, and Sanders has an appear to Trump voters that Clinton does not.
And this is the persistent danger with Cruz. He understands this well enough to arguably play it like a fiddle from time-to-time, and all at the expense of his more timid and less talented colleagues. He’s the one who has helped himself to the discontented rump of their constituencies, not Trump. Trump is just borrowing them for a pre-game show.
I have been watching Cruz’ stealthy insurgency since 2013 and I don’t see where he’s deviated even slightly from what seems a steady, timely, determined, demagogic attempt at the White House beholding to nobody. And all in plain sight too. It would be a sorry, sorry day; Nixon was a psychopath but Cruz seems even worse.
He’s cashed up, connected and organised. And he’s already owed favours everywhere from his endorsement and support of insurgent conservative candidates nationwide. All the stars are aligned but for one thing; nobody can stand him. If events overtake his unctuous unpleasantness we’re quite possibly in poop.
You worry too much about a Cruz candidacy.
Tell me, who is Cruz supposed to attract that Romney and McCain did not? It doesn’t matter what positive political jetsam and positive unique factors he has, if he doesn’t have demographics then he doesn’t have shit.
And Cruz doesn’t have demographics. He might get them by default in the primary if Trump self-destructs, but Cruz won’t get Trump supporters to turn out outside of the primary because ultimately he’s a generic Delay-style conservative and we know how well those kinds of people do in elections. I know that it’s in vogue to portray Tea People/Trumpists as generic Republican base voters with a thin coat of paint, but they have legitimate ideological differences from the religious right and classical economic + social conservatives. They’re not down with the theocrats (besides them being a convenient ally) nor are they keen on international interventionalism and while their economic prescriptions are facile and self-serving, they’re not drooling and reflexive supporters of Reaganomics. Look up ‘Middle American Radicals’ for the full skinny.
And without the fresh blood that Trump brings in, what you have is, again, a generic Delay-style theocrat minus institutional support whose base shrank by about 2% in the last election — an election which they lost handily.
If Cruz somehow wins, I’m going to sleep and not paying attention to any political news that’s not a foreign policy fuckup, economic calamity, or a scandal that traces back to HRC or Obama. Because outside of those black swans, the outcome is already written.
Hoping you’re right and it does seem unlikely in normal circumstances that any Republican can overcome their apparent demographic deficit and win the presidency. Booman’s making a strong case for a complete collapse of the GOP and his reasoning is sound.
All I’m saying is that if Cruz wins the nomination we are up against a Nixonian weasel whose opportunistic strategy relies on leverage of fear, doubt and uncertainty. High risks for all concerned.
The pundit class has figured this out now, but I am kind of amazed they didn’t recognize the threat sooner.
He scares the crap out me.
The Republican nomination is going to be interesting, as you say. I’m guessing the sober souls who front-loaded the nomination contest with Southern primaries are a bit white-knuckled now.
Can Trump win Iowa and start the long march to Cleveland? Or does he flame out, probably forcing the establishment to deal with a renascent Cruz? Either way the windfall of early delegates will be tough to overcome if they miss out; before Florida (Mar 15) lie South Carolina, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas and Mississippi.
Here’s the thing about Cruz..
the theme is that the GOP will do all this craziness during the Primaries but ‘moderate’ for the General Election.
There is no ‘moderation’ about Cruz.
And, he’s just arrogant enough to believe that he doesn’t have to ‘moderate’.
Which suits me just fine.
He’s just not hiding behind Frank Luntz approved language.
He has been leading the charge of the crazy ever since he got to the Senate.
Which makes him the nominee Hillary should most likely beat like a rented mule. My concern is that he’s wicked smart, a practised, bold opportunist and a constitutional Bond villain.
I’m totally on board with the Trump/Wallace parallel. Whether consciously or not, Trump played into it with his early mega-rally in Alabama.
I partly subscribe to the Sanders/McGovern parallel, but there’s nothing encouraging to be drawn out of that lesson for Sanders. Florida in 1968 split roughly 40/30/30 for Nixon, with Humphrey edging out Wallace. In 1972, it split about 70/30 for Nixon over McGovern. Those angry white folks that McGovern thought he could woo? Every single one of them went to Nixon after Wallace was shot.
I wouldn’t call McGovern insane in his ambitions, and would largely attribute the massive failure of his campaign to a combination of the Southern Strategy flourishing while the Democratic party was hobbled by the memory of Johnson’s role in prosecuting the war in Vietnam. (Imagine the confusion if in 2008 or 2012 the Republicans had nominated an outspoken anti-war candidate.)
I know little about how it is that McGovern tried to tie his coalition together. I’m not impressed with Sanders’ approach, which sometimes comes across as telling people, black and white, that if only they embraced his economics they’d realize that the issues that divide them – the issues that they think they care about – are secondary.
I think that this little bromide has to be THE most dishonest tricks in the HRC wing’s arsenal.
By framing it as social liberalism + economic centrism versus social centrism (or conservatism) + economic liberalism and saying that Bernie’s focus on class issues necessarily means embracing the latter, it allows people to completely ignore how on social issues Bernie is at or even better than Clinton on damn near everything. Especially if it’s a combination of class AND social policies, like with, oh, welfare reform.
Social issues are very important to me, so this is yet another reason why I’m skeptical about a HRC candidacy. But the media elites (Krugman, Stewart, Klein, etc.) are almost uniformly from the upper-middle class yuppie wing of the Democratic Party and HRC is clearly their gal, so I expect to hear this nugget of bullshit for the rest of Bernie’s campaign.
I’m not sure that this description of Sanders’ approach is all that inaccurate. If you look at this electoral history and his past unsuccessful runs for office, he was very dismissive of those who were not “on board” with his version of revolution. And until his more recent embrace of criticism from BLM, I didn’t see much had changed.
I don’t know how he can bridge this divide of what his policies on these social issues are and the perception that he views them as secondary, but that chasm is there; I see it, and I’m not supporting Clinton in the primary. And recognizing that it is there isn’t so much pro-Clinton talking point (although some of her loyalists subtly talk about whether he can attract significant minority and AA support), but a call to wake up and do something about it. Obviously he’s trying, but I’m not sure he is the best vector for the message because he’s just not “there” yet.
who are you listening to?
>>some of her loyalists subtly talk about whether he can attract significant minority and AA support
subtly? about as subtle as a punch in the mouth.
who are you listening to?
With respect to what?
subtly? about as subtle as a punch in the mouth.
Not talking about her campaign officials, Lanny Davis and his equivalent schmucks, or even Congresscritters such as McCaskill. Just talking about commenters that I see, as the context seem reserved to blogs/social media/ etc.
The criticism you quoted is my own. Is it inconceivable that someone might criticize Sanders’ candidacy in good faith, rather than as a mendacious minion of Hillary Clinton?
I did not say or imply that Sander’s focus on class means that he is socially conservative or centrist. Nor would I. Nor do I accept that a socially progressive stance entails economic centrism.
What I did say is that Sanders, in his “focus on class issues”, sometimes comes across as dismissive of others’ priorities. This tendency has limited his ability to build a coalition beyond his initial supporters in the primary. If he were to stand in a general election, he would face a similar problem building on the Democratic base.
I agree with Sanders on a range of issues, probably most of them. But I don’t see him as effective in the role of bringing others to see things his way. Some of his more zealous supporters have exacerbated this problem in the way they respond to criticisms of the candidate.
I agree with every word of this. And I have given money to Bernie’s campaign.
Agreed. Ask Bernie about black, Latino, or women’s issues and he almost instantly reverts to his economic argument. He believes that if we solve the underlying economic issues, the rest will automatically improve. And he’s right. But it’s hard to be patient with economic improvements when your state is forcing you to have a child or killing your friends in the streets.
Bernie is a great guy, with wonderful policy positions, but if he can’t make people believe that he understands their everyday concerns, he won’t win. He’s getting better, but he’s just not there yet.
Not a comment, just a compliment that this series of posts by Martin is delightful to read and think about.
Latest New Hampshire Polling from PPP
“Do you think maybe a lot of Trump supporters are less committed to Trump himself than to the gut-level appeal to smash the people who have been fucking them over?”
Those Trump supporters who want to “smash the people who have been fucking them over” have voted, consistently, for those very people fucking them over for going on 40 years now.
Reagan was elected, in part, by union members cheering him on as he promised to smash the unions.
The new governor of Kentucky explicitly, repeatedly and loudly campaigned on the promise to take people’s newly won health insurance away from them, and THEY BELIEVED HIM…witness the people who have been interviewed talking about hurrying up and seeing the doctor and stockpiling needed medicine before they guy THEY VOTED FOR makes it impossible for them to do so.
Don’t forget about Governor Brownback and Kansas.
Yeah, we have to continue to do what we can to help these people simply because it’s the right thing to do, but expecting a political reward for it is delusional.
Completely agree. I see rightwing propaganda that plays into the notion that Trumpists are just all about smash the system, plus there’s boatloads of extremely simple “solutions” to “all our problems” that Trump will “solve” on Day One in office.
That said, should Trump not be nominated in the Primary? These yay-hoos are not not not never ever ever ever under any circumstances going to vote for any D politician, esp NOT HRC. And they’re not gonna vote for Sanders, either.
Never happen.
There has been discussion (at other sites) years ago about attempting to make common cause with the Tea Party bc some of their purported concerns are common concerns. Yet the Tea Partiers have been very brainwashed to HATE, LOATHE and DETEST any and all so-called “liberals” or “progressives” or “Democrats” up through and including hating “Libertarians” bc they don’t understand the meaning of that label (I guess bc it starts with an “L” they think it means “liberal.”)
Whomever wins the brass ring in the R primary is whom the Teahadists will vote for. Count on it. No matter how much they are clearly voting against their own interests. Happens constantly in this country. These people are die-hards about voting “conservative” no matter what it means for them in the end. Better to STARVE AND DIE than vote “liberal.” Foolish but there you have it.
A nit about the timing here. Florida was on March 14th.
Three weeks later Wallace competed in Wisconsin and finished second with 22% of the vote (to McGovern with 29%). Wallace actually beat McGovern in Pennsylvania on April 25th (they both lost to Humphrey) and on May 16th.
Wallace and McGovern’s views were simply incompatible. I have heard this theory before about ’68 and ’72, that there was this way for the left to win Wallace voters with a populist argument against Wall Street. It is the same argument that we make now. I don’t buy it.
Let me suggest another theory, and then the best parallel to Trump I can think of.
Theordore White’s book on ’72 suggests McGovern needed Wallace in the race. When you look at where Wallace was running in the calendar, it was in Union strongholds. McGovern benefited from Wallace in that he took union support away from Humphrey. Wallace actually took 50%+ of the vote in Michigan, a state McGovern had no chance of beating Humphrey in. Wallace also took southern delegates that he would have likely lost to Humphrey.
Simply put, McGovern could not beat Humphrey in the industrial Midwest and Northeast without Wallace in the race. The only place the theory you cited might have worked was in Ohio where Wallace did not run.
And here is where the parallel gets interesting. We know from polling Trump cannot win a two way race for the nomination. But he CAN win a 3 way race. As you suggest, Cruz plays the role of Wallace, taking evangelical votes away from the establishment candidate. In this theory the establishment candidate loses votes to the right from Cruz and loses moderate votes to Trump.
But the comparison breaks down because it ignores the Wallace’s history. Wallace was a more enduring force in American Politics than Trump ever was. Most of the votes he was winning in ’72 had already voted for in ’68.
I have no idea why Wallace didn’t run in Ohio. But on the day he was shot it is hard to look at the results up until then and conclude anything other than that Wallace could have won a race in which the establishment was split.
I doubt that the establishment would have let that happen.
A better parallel is probably the ’88 Democratic Nomination fight. The ’88 fight was really about the last white alternative to Jackson, because in a two way race Jackson could not win.
There is a problem with this, though. The states after Super Tuesday are winner take all in the GOP. You need about 1,650 delegates to win a majority of elected delegates. On March 15th 4 states hold WINNER TAKE ALL primaries with 232 delegates. There are 787 delegates elected before that date. If Trump where to a win a majority of those delegates and win on the 15th, he would have a commanding delegate lead.
There is very little time for the establishment to rally behind a candidate after South Carolina. I think Trump will be toast by the time SC is over, and national polling is irrelevant any.
But if Cruz wins Iowa, and I think he will, but Trump has a large enough pre-NH lead to still win, this may get REALLY interesting.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1r5tO3BMcuEfjceRUcdu2IV6gmFaFKABFVdvqT9WCEvY/edit#gid=3708825
29&vpid=A1
Booman asks:
I answer:
No. I do not think that. Nor do i buy the electoral parallel between Wallace and Trump.
Why?
Because Trump is a creature of the media and Wallace was a creature of Deep South racial politics.
Wallace was basically a regional candidate with a style that appealed to that region only. Now you might say that he had a lot of supporters outside of the south, but I would counter that the current “Mason Dixon Line” is entirely cultural and actually much more crooked than we normally imagine. I call it the Manson-Nixon line, and it goes WAY north in many places.
It cuts through the middle of Illinois, Indiana Ohio and Pennsylvania, for example. Then it juts north into New York and continues right on through the more rural parts of New England right through Maine and up to the Canadian border. To the west? Once again, it’s semi-rural versus more developed. All the way to Oregon and Washington State.
Trump realizes this. He is playing to the people who dwell below the Manson Nixon Line, and he is better at it than anybody we have ever seen in national politics.
Discount him at all of our peril.
AG
Always remember…wishful thinking by the “educated classes” led directly to Hitler’s rise to power.
AG
P.S. We all have a Manson Nixon Line in our own beings. Some people live more or less above it, some more or less below.
Given the results of the last 50 years or so of American politics? The average…of all Americans who have voted?
Border state.
At best.
And leaning southward as we speak.
AG
Not so many “hardhats” around today.
What McGovern did get right in ’72 was that Wallace and his supporters were FDR DEMs. What he underestimated was the depth and breadth of their racism which the New Deal hadn’t challenged to any noticeable extent. IOW, they had experienced close to three decades of getting both jobs and “Jim Crow.”
By ’72 those white “hardhats” had forgotten the three legged stool that had improved their financial well-being: New Deal, Unions, and national mobilization. For them, the latter was collapsed into “war” which they hadn’t forgotten but mis-remembered. Blotting out the negative realities of the WWII years, high casualties, horrors and difficulties of the war for those that survived, consumption austerity/rationing, etc. Recalling and inflating the positive realities, near zero unemployment, fattening savings accounts (not much to buy), and national pride. All of the post-WWII veterans goodies (relatively lavish to not repeat the WWI rancor and mostly for white veterans) that they’d received got shoved into a weird box labeled “deferred compensation for the awesome,” IOW what they had individually earned and disconnected from the fact that it was set up to smooth a transition to a non-war economy. That is not a minor point because those “awesome” Vets were fine with treating Vietnam War vets (who weren’t as white and programs couldn’t as easily discriminate against those that weren’t white) like crap while the “awesome” vets continued to reap the rewards of a US war economy.
How have those white working class men fared since 1972? As they held onto their anger, racism, and misogyny? Harold Myerson, The Prospect, The 40 Year Slump
The GOP has never wavered from it’s 40 year propaganda campaign directed at working class white voters that their economic problems are due to the poors, the immigrants, the Blacks, the feminists, the pointy-headed educated liberals, commies, the DFHs, etc., refreshed and renewed with whatever new scapegoats that can be found. And those voters keep buying the swill, even if sometimes the scapegoat merchants happen to have a D after their names.
Back in 1972, there was more work, home, and school interactions among the lower through upper middle-classes, at least within one’s ethnic and racial sub-group and those barriers were beginning to drop. The income and economic divide was low enough that the auto mechanic and engineer could live in the same neighborhood if not on the same street.
Who gave FDR the most heartburn? Huey Long
Nice guilt by association smear of sanders as a racist. Hillary must be proud of you. Unless she has to throw you under the bus like Rahm.
I guess then I smeared McGovern, too?
OK, I’ll walk it back. Please remember that in the last seventy years I’ve been screwed more times than Xaviera Hollander.
I put in the reference since you’re probably too young to remember her.
Remember this imbroglio when you consider the blue collar working man this election cycle. This time WE want to light the fires and riot.
Had lunch a month ago with an old friend, an oldtime Conservative, not a Rush Limbaugh follower, but definitely Goldwater-Reagan. He’s not religious so he dismisses Carson and the like. Hates Bush, Cruz, Rubio. Supports Trump. All the bile of all those years of being screwed by politicians is coming out.
Perhaps they should attempt to speak coherently so that others that share their economic plight can hear them instead of lining up behind the latest ranting racist, etc. demagogue that’s caught their fancy. When do they get a clue that Wallace-Nixon-Reagan-GWB-Trump is the problem and that enabling that problem, also led to the emergence and growth of the DEM version of the same problem?
They could still be helpful in this election cycle, but not by voting for one of the dreadful GOP candidates in the primary.
They are not going to go for the anointed one. They elected Bill, then had buyer’s remorse.
And the basis for their “buy’s remorse” over Clinton? Not likely anything to do with the GOP, anti-New Deal legislation he supported and signed.
If they vote for Trump in the primary, doesn’t matter if they don’t vote for Clinton in the GE. They’ll get more of what ails them regardless if Clinton or one of the rethugs wins.
Trumpster dodos:
Would be surprising if they didn’t also support an assault weapons ban for AAs and Latinos.
Who knew the Trumpters are more out to lunch than Republicans overall.
“They’ll get more of what ails them regardless if Clinton or one of the rethugs wins.”
You are preaching to the choir. My anecdote was an example of a very conservative man, who is NOT a Tea Party member, going for Trump rather than an establishment guy. It would have been an exercise in futility to mention Sanders. Back in 2008, before Edwards dropped out, I favored Edwards, although some premonition told me something was wrong with the guy, but I put it down to my own prejudice against the accent. Anyway, I mentioned maybe switching to Obama, and he said, “Don’t vote for Obama! He’s a Socialist!” I said, “He’s not a Socialist. If he was, I’d vote for him.” I thought my poor old friend was going to have apoplexy. “You don’t know what you’re saying!” So I knew he would rather be staked to an anthill that vote for Bernie. He was born in 1934. His parents were small shop keepers and he still insists they wouldn’t have lost their business if only Roosevelt would have let them cut prices to compete. He’s an educated man, but just wouldn’t listen when I tried to explain deflationary spirals.
As much as I dump on “the greatest generation,” the lamest are those that were just old enough to have an awareness of WWII and the Korean War in real time but too young to serve and generally too old for the Vietnam War. How many from that generation has been elected POTUS? None.
Have to wonder when that man’s parents lost their business. During the WWII wage and price controls, the complaint was the inability to increase prices. Sounds to me as if you friend’s parents had a crappy business that couldn’t compete in a level price environment and he has swallowed a family excuse-myth for why the business failed. One that doesn’t even have a damn thing to do with socialism. He may have had a lot of schooling, but he’s hardly an “educated man.”
wrt Edwards, in 2003 he was clearly an inexperienced, ambitious, opportunist. He was a co-sponsor of the IWR for goodness sake. He had the used car salesman sliminess in a good suit. Didn’t get why so many couldn’t see through at in 2003-4 and it was more inexplicable to me why anyone gave him the time of day four years later.
It was during the Depression when many many businesses failed. Have no idea if they were good or bad businessmen. I agree that he has swallowed uncritically what his parents told him when he was a pre-teen. OTOH, my parents told me that Roosevelt was a great man that saved America and our family. I also believe that uncritically, although reason tells me he was human and a politician. From New York, yet. Must have had some dirty hands. I saw this morning that Amazon Prime video has the six part historical series on the whole Roosevelt clan. I only saw portions on PBS. Think I’ll watch the whole series.
Edwards was the only person talking about the people left behind by the Reagan Revolution. Both Clinton and Obama were fighting it out for the Center, having drunk the Reagan Kool-Aid. Having completed my metamorphosis from blue collar factory worker to middle class professional back to blue collar factory worker, I identified more with the people Edwards was talking about. That is a conundrum, isn’t it. Which is more important? Policy or Personality? That seems to be what’s at stake this year in the Democratic race. Although, personally, every time I see Hillary on TV, I think, “God! What a phony!” I get that feeling much stronger from her than Edwards.
Maybe his parents should have stuck an NRA sign in their window instead of sulking and dreaming of a restoration of Hoover and the “Roaring Twenties.”
There’s an automated business school game – five to six teams in a class “run” a business for twelve quarters in competition with the other teams. All the decisions were made by consensus in my team which meant that my recommendations were mostly overruled. After seven quarters when we were tied for last place and the others were out of ideas, they let me take over. I figured it was too late in the game to get us to first place, but thought second place was possible. The others with larger market shares were entering a price competition war, I increased our price and quality. (It was more complex than that, but that was my basic strategy.) We ended up with more than our “fair share” of the market and the strongest balance sheet.
Clinton is actually a phony if one bothers to peel away the various Hillary marketing campaigns over the past couple of decades. Often enough she reveals who she is, but those that love the artifice of Hillary reject those moments when she lets the latest mask slip.
Edwards’ “Two Americas” came out of some “think group.” Why it could easily be seen as phony campaign prop is that it bore no relationship to anything in his life. Even the “son of a millworker” was an exaggeration.
in my experience, the best run company I ever worked for lost their CEO and all the VP’s had to vote for policy on consensus. They hated that. i talked about it with my VP often. But good decisions were made. The proponents had to sell their ideas to the other VPs and justify their proposals. Finally the company was sold (we were owned at this point by a venture capital firm, the delay in selecting a CEO was that he had to be a man who inspired confidence “on the Street”) to a multi-billion dollar nationwide firm. They understood neither the business nor the market. Three years later we (as a division) were bankrupt and the doors closed.
Democracy really is better than dictatorship.
Doubt that was the intent. Even if for those that consciously lived through the 1972 election, the ruminations by someone that didn’t has some of that stench.
The omission — and a serious one IMO — is the relative strengths of the respective party elites in 1972 and 2016 and how the elites exercise that power. The open question is whether the GOP elites will take their ball and go home in 2016 like the DEM elites did in ’72 (after a perfectly fine and qualified New Deal liberal Democrat secured the nomination) or will they get behind the most unqualified and blatant anti-democratic fascist their party has nominated.
It’s just business, Marie. They’ll get behind Trump because they will make money on the deal. Or at least…that’s what they will believe.
We shall see.
Soon enough.
So will they.
AG
I’ll give Booman the benefit of the doubt. I’ll address him above.
The problem here is that the GOP has spent the last thirty years convincing the “disaffected hardhats” that Democrats are bad and Socialists are evil. Conservative voters have made it very clear that their own economic health is not their primary concern. I suspect they would starve before they would cross over.
Make that the “last hundred years.” And no, they have demonstrated that they will “cross over” when they get hungry enough. The thing is that Democratic socialists over a period of forty years put in place enough robust socialism that all the “conservative” whittling away for that socialism over the past forty years has kept their bellies full (too full actually since diet related chronic health conditions continue to rise). Of course, those that implemented those programs didn’t call it socialism and therefore, the empty bellies supported them and ignored the Republicans screaming “socialism.”
Can Americans handle the truth? Probably not.
Somewhat crude — but captures an important truth that’s been with us since at least 1972.
Yes Marie!!!
There it is, in all of its glory.
God bless America!!!
It’s gonna need all the help it can get.
AG
Explains the media too.
Just wanted to thank you for this particularly thoughtful and thought provoking series of posts, BooMan.
Interesting analogy Boo. Although America almost always has had some form of an angry populist movement, I think what probably motivated Wallace supporters in 1972 the most was desegregation and the school busing issue. Economic issues were probably a secondary concern to the disruption of their racist norms.
Now, the populist anger I think is largely centered on the relative decline of the middle class and the corruption of government that has enabled that process. Unfortunately, Trump and the Republicans have been very successful at trotting out the old racist game plan of blaming the minorities for their economic woes, but I do think Bernie Sanders does have a chance at picking up some of these voters, although I’m sure he gets it that the racists are going to stay in the GOP column.
And really, I think the issue for the Democratic nomination today is if Bernie can build a coalition of voters based primarily on economic issues without alienating the disparate interest groups that make up the Democratic party that is greater than HRC’s coalition of groups that seem to be centered around those that want a “seat at the table” (really just cronyism or tradition machine politics), first female president voters, Wall Street, professional politicians, who the hell is Bernie Sanders? voters, and things were great when Bill was president voters.
What’s unique is that while the anger and angst among the electorate today crosses party lines, it’s being expressed most intensely within one party and none of the candidates benefiting from that anger within the GOP has much of a chance to win in the general election.
It’s as if the ID dominating the GOP electorate is closer to the minority Superego in the DEM electorate than the Ego of the GOP. However, all the leading candidates represent their own personal egos.
However, all the leading candidates represent their own personal egos
and the NRA, Sheldon Adelson, the Koch brothers, and… I’m sure I’m leaving out a billionaire or two.
We all know after Wallace was shot it was Nixon who picked up the racist vote to beat McGovern. I know Hillary has played the race card in the past but she’s no Nixon. If you’re saying Hillary is going to win a Nixon style landside, you’re wrong. Bernie is polling better against Republicans than Hillary; in fact, nominating Hillary runs a real risk of losing a winnable election.
McGovern liked labor but Big Labor didn’t like him. According to Solon, when Meany arrived in Miami for the 1972 convention he famously sneered at New York’s delegates: “What kind of delegation is this? They’ve got six open fags and only three AFL-CIO people on that delegation!” He later described the ’72 convention delegates as “people who looked like Jacks, acted like Jills and had the odors of Johns.” With Democratic friends like this, who needs enemies? There was of course the Nixon racial Southern Strategy plus the Northern Strategy targeting voters from the Catholic sidewalks of New York, largely on race and cultural issues.
The article says “Wallace (Trump) vote was “soft” – that the typical Wallace (Trump) voter, especially in the North and Midwest, was far less committed to Wallace (Trump) himself than to his thundering, gut-level appeal to rise up and smash all the “pointy-headed bureaucrats in Washington” who’d been fucking them over for so long.” This is where the analogy really breaks down because with Bernie (your McGovern) the issue is not with the government referred to as “pointy-headed bureaucrats in Washington” but the corporatists (including Hillary) who have been and continue to fuck them over. This is real anger but far different from Republican anger unless you’re a racist. Bernie has a higher opinion of Republicans than I do assuming a significant number of them will reject racism to instead support economic reform that will make their lives better.
Joan Walsh in Salon says, “McGovern’s loss is a case study in how low Republicans would go, and how much Democrats would do to help them, in those turbulent post-60s years of despair and liberal self-destruction.” This is the best analogy of all because it requires no substitution. The DNC has Hillary’s 2008 campaign co-chair in a position to protect Hillary from exposure to Bernie’s message. As it stands now in national polls with 30% for Bernie, does Hillary think she can win without that 30%?
Not to worry you say because once Hillary wins all those people will unite behind Hillary and the Democrats. I say that could be true if the DNC wasn’t pulling all this crap. Debbie Wasserman-Shultz is playing the George Meany role for the Democrats.
I tend to think of Debbie Wasserman-Schultz as a singularly ineffective functionary: The kind of drone who irresistibly rises in the party through the mechanisms of internal politics, but whose success within the protective membrane of the party organism correlates to little outside of it. So it’s jarring to see her portrayed as some kind of kingmaker (or kingbreaker) capable of playing a decisive role in public opinion.
I ask you, how many Democratic debates have we had and when were they held, compared to 2008? Is this effective to protect Hillary from Bernie’s message? So far so good. If this works she made it happen and you can’t be more effective than that.
Both parties started the debates earlier in 2008 and later in 2016. Since September this year there have been the same number of debates for each party. If this arrangement invariably favored the establishment, it’s hard to explain the relative polling of Bush and Trump over this period. Meanwhile on the Democratic side, Clinton’s lead has widened since the first debate. More debates is supposed to reverse that trend?
If Sanders’ appeal is held to be inevitable, I suppose it’s necessary to find some explanation of why he isn’t catching on. If it’s not, then it explains itself. With all due respect to Sanders, and no love for Wasserman-Schultz, I find the simpler explanation more convincing.
Let’s not get into both sides do it. In 2008 when Debbie Wasserman-Shultz was Hillary’s campaign co-chair we had 26 Democratic primary debates. Now with DWS making the decision for the DNC have 6 debates. More debates invites more comparison between Hillary and Bernie plus Bernie’s message goes to a much wider audience, two things the DNC wants to prevent.
If Bernie’s message does not resonate given at least the same opportunity Hillary had against Obama in 2008, I can live with that. If Bernie’s message doesn’t resonate because large numbers of people do not hear it because of the DNC, that’s another story. If Democrats feel cheated because the DNC tried to tilt things toward Hillary there is damage done to the Democratic Party. Maybe DWS and the DNC don’t care about that 30%, which by the way is higher than Obama had at this same point in the 2008 campaign despite the Democratic Establishment freeze out on Bernie.
There was an open revolt at the DNC on this issue.
http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/news/a37912/the-democratic-revolt-against-the-dnc-chai
r-begins/
I didn’t say “both sides do it”: I said if the number of debates that we have had since September has protected Clinton, why hasn’t it done the same thing for Bush? The number of DNC-sanctioned debates this year is the same as it was in 2008: 6. There is a difference in that DWS unilaterally added a penalty for participating in non-sponsored debates. I think we’re in agreement that was a dumb move. But since the Republicans are debating at the same pace, it doesn’t seem to have made an impact on the actual debate schedule yet, and would not unless and until a competitive race emerges from the early contests.
There’s an argument to made that had the debates started earlier, as they did in 2008, there would be more opportunities for outsider candidates to challenge the establishment. But if that were the case, we’d expect the establishment GOP candidates to also have benefited from the advantage, and it is clear that they have not.
In 2008, the debates (in which, by most accounts, Clinton did best) were not nearly as determinative of the outcome as the groundwork that resulted in Obama winning Iowa. He showed a lead there in December 2007, despite trailing nationally into February 2008.
If Sanders proves he can win, say in New Hampshire or on Super Tuesday, the case for more debates is overwhelming, and I doubt DWS, who as you note is already under pressure, can weather that storm – anymore than she could withstand the pressure to assent to the agreement with Iran. She’s not going to do the right thing unless her hand is forced, but a viable candidacy will generate the pressure to force her hand.
I agree that DWS’ shenanigans don’t reflect well on the party, but would add that this kind of thing is par for the course in party politics. Remember the frontloading of Michigan and Florida in 2008? Or the vote on the “God and Jerusalem” plank at the 2012 convention?
I imagine it’s that kind of nonsense that kept Sanders as an Independent for so long. Institutional change is difficult. I’m glad Sanders is rolling up his sleeves and getting his hands dirty trying. But I remain skeptical of the notion that the defects of the party establishment, however numerous, are what effectively limits him as a candidate.
This thing is absolutely enlightening
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/
If all eligible black voters voted at their current percentages, a bunch of states like Louisiana would go blue. That’s just one thing I learned messing around with the calculator.
Thank you, and I will be likewise “obsessed”. There goes my Saturday!