Says, David Frum, “The GOP planned a dynastic restoration in 2016. Instead, it triggered an internal class war.” That’s from the dek of his large new piece in The Atlantic, and I have to give Frum credit. It’s a solid retelling of what’s happened to your father’s GOP.
At the heart of his analysis is a relatively simple thesis. In the immediate aftermath of the 2012 debacle, everyone from Rupert Murdoch to Sean Hannity to Charles Krauthammer concluded that nothing fundamental needed to change about the Republican Party or the Conservative Movement except their attitude toward Latino immigration. The RNC conducted an “autopsy” of the election and concluded much the same thing, although the RNC also emphasized a less hostile attitude towards gay rights and a little more sanity and tact on female contraception and reproductive rights.
But the base of the party was seeing things much differently, and if there was anything that they fervently wanted to see change it was precisely this proclivity to surrender on issues like immigration that seemed to no longer have any electoral advantage.
What followed was a failed effort to pass a comprehensive immigration reform bill through Congress with an accompanying dive in approval of the job performance of the Republican leadership.
What we’re witnessing now, with Donald Trump, is proof that the base of the GOP will support almost any rhetoric as long as it is aimed at bashing Latinos, Muslims, or the Republicans in Washington DC who seem more interested in getting reelected than in keeping their promises.
Just listen to Phyllis Schafly:
Schlafly applauded the GOP front-runner’s fighting spirit.
“It sounds like Donald Trump is the only one who has any fight in him,” she said. “He will fight for the issues that we really care about and are very hot at the present time, such as the immigration issue. I don’t see anyone else who’s eager to fight.”
The Republican-controlled Congress just sold America down in river in the “worst kind of betrayal,” Schlafly told WND.
“It’s the worst kind of a betrayal because we thought we elected a bunch of good guys who would shape up the party,” she said. “We had a lot of fancy promises that the Republicans were going to shape up and change course. And they disappointed us. Betrayal is an appropriate word to describe it.”
WND asked Schlafly if she believes Donald Trump is the last hope for America.
“He does look like he’s the last hope [for America],” Schlafly said. “We don’t hear anybody saying what he’s saying. In fact, most of the people who ought to be lining up with him are attacking him. They’re probably jealous of the amount of press coverage he gets. But the reason he gets so much press coverage is the grassroots are fed up with people who are running things, and they do want a change. They do want people to stand up for America. It really resonates when he says he wants to ‘Make America Great Again.’”
Frum sees four ways forward for the Republican Establishment. They can double down on their pro-immigration stance without changing anything else. This would entail sticking it out with Jeb or maybe shifting support to Rubio.
They can flip on immigration, making the same kind of concession they made to social conservatives on abortion in the 1980’s, but basically change nothing else. For Frum, this could be basically accomplished with either Ted Cruz or Chris Christie.
They could make more of a true pivot to the middle and rediscover their inner-Eisenhower Republicanism, embracing policies that are actually aimed at bolstering the middle class and their concerns, even if this involves painful concessions from the financial elite.
Or, they can keep working to game the system with gerrymanders and vote suppression to protect their congressional majorities and hunker down for another long vacation from the White House. With their successes on the state and local level and control of least one chamber of Congress, they can be a very effective permanent minority.
Personally, I think we will see them flail around all four of these strategies, but lack of cohesion or obedience from the base will force them into option four. I believe they will default to what they can agree on, and that is opposition to the Democrats and their multicultural America. It might be different if one of the other options could deliver quick and sure success, but no one will be convinced of that. Doubling down on an accommodating attitude towards immigrants accompanied by support for free trade, cutting entitlements, and maintaining low taxes on the superrich is going to be a non-starter with the Trumpista base. On the other hand, continuing to alienate minorities and multiculturals with their intolerance cannot bring Electoral College victory. A true reform agenda might be possible, but the party base is too suspicious to support any kind of activist government and there simply isn’t any consensus on an alternative to the old trickle-down economics. So, that leaves the last option.
And it makes sense because the Republican Party has evolved since its last heyday in the 1920’s into an organization built for the permanent minority. This culture snapped into being and grew strength from the experience of spending a nearly uninterrupted sixty years (1933-1995) without being able to control the committees or the pursestrings in the House of Representatives. That’s a long time to spend without approving the federal budget or being able to shape legislation. It’s a very long time to go without having to take any responsibility for what Congress produced.
It’s no wonder that the Conservative Movement doesn’t know what to do with the car whenever it manages to catch it.
But it’s still basically nihilism. And I’ve never seen any group of human beings who could craft a positive agenda around nihilism.
You write:
I guess that depends on your definitions of “positive” and “nihilism,” Booman.
Lets go with nihilism first.
I’ll go with Merriam Webster’s second main definition in this case:
And “positive?” In this context I would use the word “successful” instead.
Thus a translation of your statement using these ideas would be:
Hmmmm…
If you take the word “successful” to mean being able to take over a society’s entire political and cultural system by whatever means necessary for more than a couple of years?
Examples abound.
Revolutions abound.
Are they “positive” examples?
I dunno.
Sometimes they are and sometimes they are not.
You tell me.
Hmmmm…
Is Trump on this level?
Not on your life.
Is he on the level of the Russian Revolution?
Nope.
But…is he on the Hitlerian level?
Not yet he ain’t, but the game is still in play.
Watch.
And…let us pray.
AG
It’s appropriate to talk about nihilism in a political context here, obviously.
But I use the term is a broader sense that includes your definition but isn’t limited to it.
Most Republicans are religious in a very theistic sense which means that it would be inappropriate to call them nihilists in at least one important way. The certainly do believe in something.
But when it comes to the empirical world, they and their strategists are constantly engaging in metaphysical or even epistemological nihilism. It isn’t possible to know if human activity is causing climate change or what the climate is going to do. No amount of direct experience can alter a belief in certain ideological propositions (see: trickle down economics). People who are “reality-based” are stuck on some false and inferior truth standard that neither applies in actuality nor is a solid political strategy. Lying isn’t really lying because the truth is unknowable and is (in any case) completely beside the point of who is going to win.
Another form of nihilism is their willingness to engage in behavior that any remotely astute observer knows is doomed or reckless or even simply madness. Let’s shoot down Russian planes in Syria. Let’s use nuclear weapons. Let’s default on our national debts and destroy our credit rating. Let’s shut down the government for no purpose other than to show we “fought.” This form of nihilism is the kind that basically says “nothing matters, so who cares what happens?” Or, “damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead.”
And, yes, there’s also the Russian version of nihilism that is a hybrid of all these things. It says that everything is so rotten that almost anything is permissible to destroy the existing social order. That’s how Stalin wound up killing a lot more people than Hitler.
However, you slice it, it isn’t compatible with running the federal government.
You write:
This must be a misprint.
I am sure that you meant to write:
No?
Oh.
Well.
Nevermind.
Because I believe that this is exactly what the nativist right is trying to do.
Quite successfully, on the evidence.
A politcally-driven revolution.
A backwards revolution, back to the days of total white supremacy. Total supremacy of the old European Protestant Christian beliefs that were the excuse for the way the country was built from a continent of unused raw materials to the most powerful country in the world over the course of about 170 years.
Say 1776-1946.
If Trump wins the presidency…and I believe that he has a really good chance of doing just that, especially against Hillary Wardom Clinton…he will make the so-called “Reagan Revolution” look positively liberal in comparison.
Watch.
AG
Does Frum blame Kennedy, Scalia, Roberts, Thomas and Alito? That allowed wealthy people to back Ted Cruz and others. Does he blame the same GOP establishment for allowing the rise of Rush Limbaugh and others of his ilk? Because their success also helped lead to today.
What we’re witnessing now, with Donald Trump, is proof that the base of the GOP will support almost any rhetoric as long as it is aimed at bashing Latinos, Muslims, or the Republicans in Washington DC who seem more interested in getting reelected than in keeping their promises.
Don’t forget bashing Hillary Clinton. The GOP base loves who ever bashes her. That’s why Trump’s numbers will stay steady, or even increase after yesterday’s ugly word salad.
yeah, but name me the candidate who isn’t bashing Hillary.
No one is doing it like Trump though. He’s using a bullhorn when others are using dog whistles.
Trump jumped into the race because he could see that none of them were fluent in “teabag” and he is. Oh, and he views himself as “great.”
I’ve not seen Bernie Sanders himself bashing Hillary. Elements of his campaign and a lot of his supporters yes. Sanders himself? No.
That however is very much limited to what I’ve seen. It’s entirely possible I missed something, and Sen. Sanders has in fact been bashing Hillary Clinton and I just missed it. But I’m reasonably confident I didn’t because the smug from some of the Sanders supporters over at C&L would be enough to wipe all of California off the map, not just San Francisco.
He could as easily have said “The DNC planned a dynastic restoration in 2016. Instead, it triggered an internal class war.” These two statements are equivalent because both the Republican and the Democratic establishments are happy with the status quo.
The have power and the money keeps flowing upward. Throw a few bullshit red meat quotes out to keep the dumb voters happy and all’s right with the world. So both bases are unhappy. The (R) base bolts to the Right, because that’s the Kool-Aid they’ve been drinking for decades. The (D) base bolts Left, because that’s the Kool-Aid they have been drinking for decades.
Arthur Gilroy’s Permagov is revealed. Not as a formal conspiracy but as a confluence of shared interests. Self-interests, not the interests of their respective bases.
Precisely.
Thank you.
Although…I believe that in certain places, at certain times among certain people…the spooksters, the Cheneys, Kissingers etc…it is and has always been a “formal” conspiracy. A sitdown amongst various gang leaders at the highest level, a brokered meeting in order to “get things done.”
And after things do “get done,” then the system devolves back once again into a confluence of shared interests, which in turn becomes a competition, a turf war just exactly like the turf wars of gangs only vastly larger.
This keeps on going higher.
It then becomes a “confluence of interests” between opposing countries like the rapidly approaching alliance between U.S-dominated NATO powers and Russia against their common enemy, ISIS. Alweays remember the “confluence of interests” that united the U.S. and Russia in W.W. II. had it not happened we would all be speaking German now. Bet on it.
Trump understands this, as does Putin. The neo-libs? HRC, Obama and the like? Not so much, apparently.
Read this?
Military to Military-Seymour M. Hersh on US intelligence sharing in the Syrian war
If not, you should. We all should.
A few pertinent snippets:
HMMMMMmmmm…
A précis?
Sure.
The end of the Cold War, the beginning of the Hot Truce?
Could be.
Bet on that as well..
Watch.
And now the news. (From CNN-aka The CIA News Network)
Watch.
AG
Aber, Ich spricht Deutsch.
Nach wahl.
Je parle français, moi-même.
Y español, también.
Plus Street and Harvard.
AG
Ah! A Renaissance Man!
At the very least…a Google Translate man.
The new “renaissance,” I think.
“Rebirth”.
We shall see.
Soon enough.
Later…
AG
I wish I was as optimistic on the lack of possibility of the proto fascist crowd winning the presidency. It’s not the most likely scenario at this point, but it won’t be out-of the question either. Certainly the outcome of the election will have enough uncertainty that the billionaire class will be willing to pony up enough cash to possibly tip the scales. And then there is always the possibility of the random health issue with the Democratic candidate or something like that. Plus also they will most likely still control the House and probably have about an even chance of keeping the Senate.
What’s happened to the Republican party is that, because of 24/7 hate radio, the reality filter of faux news, and huge sums of dark money, the candidates no longer need to wink and node to deliver their racist, eliminationist message in coded form. Actually, it has become the opposite- the more direct and clear the candidates have become with their words of hate and fear, the better they do among the Republican primary voters. And I think it is very appropriate to call these people nihilistic, because they really do want to destroy the government.
I have believed for quite some time now that the end game for the Republicans is some form of fascism- a psuedo democratically elected authoritarian government (see: Russia). I think that’s essentially where the voter suppression/gerrymandering path leads to.
While there is some irony about the Frankenstein monster that the Republican “establishment” (largely but not entirely) created, the fact is that while they continue to have a nonzero chance of gaining power, it is a problem for all of us and it won’t go away if the Republicans lose the presidential election.
I don’t see the old category fitting, republicans don’t believe in nothing, they believe in money.
“Money is the measure of all things, of things that are, that they are, of things that are not, that they are not”. “Money giveth, money taketh away, Blessed be…”
Power is only important in service to money.
And what Spiny said….
First, Schlafly goes wherever the rightwing, regressives go. She doesn’t bother any more with facts, logic, and consistency than Trump or the teabaggers do. She’s only relevant in so far as always being able to gin up the negative emotions among that persistent US minority faction.
Second, generic odds were with the GOP for 2016. The “time for a change” after eight years of either party holding the WH. The exception was GHWB, but that was an anomaly; Dukakis was simply too flawed as a candidate.
Third, the GOP elites did expect that either Walker or Christie would become their Obama. A change, young, and able to sell platitudes that suggest a positive direction but unspecific enough that the old GOP gang could take over after the election.
Fourth, the fallbacks. Unlike 2008 when they didn’t have any after Allen lost his Senate seat. Jeb? was barely on the reserve bench and not remotely viable if Clinton didn’t run. And there were enough young “wannabes” that one could, if needed, possibly emerge as Obama-like. The suddenness of the Christie implosion may have been unsettling, but not a cause for alarm. They did take their time in assessing the wannabes, but with Clinton in and the not-Walkers falling short, Jeb? got the call. A choice, which GOP voters didn’t feel they had in 2008 and 2012, between Walker or Jeb? For the party, either would do equally well if nominated and if not elected, they would still control at least one DC chamber and a solid majority of state governments.
Fifth — the best laid plans … a “black swan.” Why did Walker delay entering the race? The messy legal issues that wouldn’t die? Intimidated by the prospect of going up against Jeb? He made his move when the former was dying and Jeb? was out there and not looking formidable. Trump was a joke that would quickly flame out. Instead, Walker became the joke. Cruz has a lot of money. And Jeb? and oddly Christie are praying for a miracle.
Of course in the near and long-term, that Goldwater nomination worked out well.
For over 50 years, Schlafly has been the wind-sock of the modern conservative movement. Indeed.
That apparently does not stop down-ticket candidacies from winning. Tell me again why I’m supposed to suddenly become optimistic (or less pessimistic).
It seems that nihilism has its supporters and “small government” is the perfect cover for not having to provide a positive agenda.
“We don’t need the stinkin’ potholes fixed. Fix them yourself.” is now not an unlikely campaign statement.
Y’know if you really wanted to stop immigrants from coming here you’d make it easier for native borns to pay for legitimate colleges. But good luck pushing free college here.
Charles and David Koch both hold BS and MS degrees from MIT.
Yes.
BullShit and Master of BullShit.
AG
knocking degrees from MIT is a bit like taking potshots at Mother Teresa: Even if you’re right, everybody thinks you’re a fool.
So…I’m supposed to be impressed that the Koch Bros. went to MIT?
Lissen up.
Daddy owned a heavy-duty. big-money patent. He undoubtedly bought his sons into MIT, just as rich motherfuckers have been doing since the beginning of “elite” colleges in the U.S.
George W. Butch went to Harvard. Am I supposed to think that he actually studied his way into and out that particular funny farm?
C’mon…
I should care about media-blinded people who think that an elite degree is a guarantee of anything except the ability to pay the tuiition?
Please.
AG
Way to completely misinterpret my comment that was only a response to this:
Whether MIT or Pudunk U, it can’t be said that the Koch’s didn’t study some science in college. Unlike Yale and Harvard, MIT doesn’t do legacy admissions and therefore, the Kochs are unlikely to have gotten through their coursework with “gentleman’s C’s.”
It’s “Podunk,” Marie.
And…money buys power in every and any system.
You ain’t noticed?
AG
yes, I’m distinguishing them, the money guys who are trying to install candidates to push their personal agenda, vs. GOP traditionalists, who are trying to protect the party as they know it, the old style GOP, and who know that the scientists are right. I’m not saying the oligarchs didn’t go to college, I’m saying they have different interests than the GOPers trying to protect the party, the oligarchs only care about their own personal $$, so due to flourishing of the oligarchs, those “in control” of the direction of the GOP divide into two groups; presumably the oligarchs fan the flames of populist teabaggers or trump supporters or whatever to the degree it suits their interests. I wouldn’t put trump in with the oligarchs per se (Adelson, Kochs, etc).
I think their strategy consists of reducing the Democratic vote: partly by suppression, but even more so by convincing Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents that voting is so pointless and the system is so irremediably corrupt that it isn’t worth their time.
The utter destruction of American democracy and democratic institutions involved in this strategy? Mere collateral damage.
I think this strategy has, by far, the best chance to succeed of any available to them. In fact, I think its chances of success are well above 50%.
Sure seems to me that the appropriate Democratic response would be to put more possible people out there to vote for and to give voters some good reasons to vote. There is an establishment game being played here of “There is no alternative,” and both parties are no longer playing it because the Republican Party has been highjacked from its current establishment.
I’m assuming that “their” in your first sentence means the RNC and its allies.
my college comment was useless, ignore it
college comment was useless, didn’t say what I meant and has nothing to do with college, ignore, should delete
That’s okay — we all slip up a bit when too quickly and too broadly generalizing.