When I saw that President Obama had remote-psychoanalyzed Trump voters, I knew that the right would go crazy and say that it reminded them of his infamous bitter-clinger comments from 2008. At this point, it’s Pavlovian. What I saw from right-wing blogger Tom Maguire was a little unexpected, however.
He took a screenshot of the New York Times headline, which read: Obama Accuses Trump of Exploiting Working-Class Fears. And then he posed a rhetorical question for all of us:
The headline is baffling – exploiting fears is now a political no-no? – and shows a failure of nerve somewhere in the editorial process.
For a moment it was me who was baffled. It took a second to process what exactly Maguire was getting at. To me, “exploiting fears” is a moral failing. Full stop.
For Maguire, exploiting fears is a given in the political process and unworthy of notice.
At first, I was offended. Then I realized that we’re both probably correct in our own way, but with limitations.
I’m sure if I challenged him, Maguire would recite countless examples of Democratic politicians exploiting the fears of the electorate. These would be fears about the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade, or fears about NSA surveillance, or fears about grandma losing her Medicare or Social Security. No doubt, talking about the bad things that may result if the other party wins is a core element of all political campaigning, and it always has been.
I think this is different in kind, though, than using fear itself as a political tool. It’s hard to draw a hard line, and it’s partly about the merit of the threat you’re talking about. Jim Geraghty tried to get at the distinction in a piece he just wrote at the National Review that complains about Democratic accusations of fear-mongering.
…all of other threats that we’re told are more likely to kill us than a terrorist — other drivers, the ladder at home, the stove, the local swimming pool – aren’t deliberately trying to kill us.
…You may fall off your ladder while putting up the Christmas lights on the roof, but it’s not like there’s a sinister group, al-Laddera, plotting to wobble when you’re leaning over to put that last string up above the gutter. There’s not much the government can to to stop you from falling off a ladder, other than PSAs saying “be careful!” But there’s an awful lot the government can do to target terrorists and mitigate the threat they present.
In other words, for Geraghty, it’s legitimate to continually alarm the electorate about a very low-probability threat to their personal safety because there is at least something the government can do to minimize that threat.
For me, though, the responsible thing to do as a political leader is to calm people’s fears both so that they won’t be needlessly or disproportionately afraid and so that they don’t freak out and make unreasonable demands on their political leaders.
What’s really bad, in my opinion, is to deliberately increase people’s sense of insecurity not primarily so that they will demand policies to keep them safe but to make them more inclined to vote for you and your political party. Making people afraid for political gain is cynical and almost cruel.
So, naturally, I see it as dubious when someone like Donald Trump ramps up people’s anxieties and provides nothing solid as actual policy prescriptions. To me, that’s totally different than arguing that electing Hillary Clinton will result in a Supreme Court less inclined to overturn Roe v. Wade or energy policies less favorable to coal. You can scare and motivate people to vote based on accurate information. That’s not a political no-no, and it never has been.
But “exploiting” fears is a little different, especially when part of your pitch is to create fear when none ought to exist (“The president is a secret Muslim”) or to ramp fear up beyond any rational level, which is what the terrorism vs. wobbly ladder comparison is meant to illuminate.
Basically, the entirety of the Clinton campaign will be fear of the GOP – since she has little positive agenda and even less likelihood of being able to enact it.
At least it’s a rational fear.
The Clinton Campaign has been and likely will be based on positive politically liberal ideals and positions.
It’s what comes after the campaign that matters for governing however. Like with any politician, and probably more so than normal with Hillary but much less so than certain segments would have you believe, skepticism is warranted in exactly how hard the campaign promises will be adhered to.
That being said, Hillary Clinton has always shown herself to be a candidate who at least knows which way the wind is blowing and who exactly is putting a roof over her head. And right now, even if she’s elected, the wind is very much blowing the direction of more and better government and liberal policies. If the voters hold her feet to the fire, she’ll jump where we want her to go. The hard part is keeping people engaged in the process to do that.
The wind is blowing in the direction of more and more wealth concentration and eternal war.
Actually, the government can impose and enforce safety standards for ladders.
Otherwise, I was say there is a real difference between exploiting fears and addressing concerns, and another way to look at it is the effect it has on the nation. Trump’s hate-mongering is clearly toxic and unworthy of defense.
I’ve noticed it’s had a negative effect on me, even though I’m repelled by it. It hasn’t led me to hate and fear Muslims and Mexicans, but I am strongly tempted to hate and fear Trump supporters. And that’s not a good feeling.
I am struggling mightily with this. I have family and some long time friends who are HUGE Trump lovers. Their social media stream is simply rife with all manner of crazy and delusional shit. I have “unfollowed” a couple of them on Facebook, simply because I am not sure I can keep myself, in the long term, from eventually responding to what they are posting. It is a real conundrum for me, as I do enjoy a good political give and take, but what they are gravitating toward is much more sinister than simply an oppositional viewpoint from mine. The are embracing, in some ways unknowingly, proto-fascistic points of view. And it greatly disturbs me. At what point to I confront them? I am still mulling that over in my head. They know I am not a Trump fan at all, but I’m not sure they comprehend the level of loathing I have for the movement that he is perpetuating. I don’t see this ending well for me, as far as maintaining a positive relationship with them.
There a numerous reasons why I do not have an account on Facebook, but what you elaborate is one of the main reasons. Most of my rightwing fundie family has an account, and I hear I enough about the horrors they post the few times per year I see one of my nieces.
It was horrible enough when Palin ran for POTUS, oops, VP. I don’t want to contemplate what this fustercluck is like now. UGH.
My brother and I chose to mutually un-friend one another for the sake of our real life relationship. When we see each other now, we know to not mention politics at all. Nevertheless, if anyone I know supports any fascist policies near me, I will speak out. I probably can’t change their minds, but there are plenty of people listening in who haven’t decided how they feel yet, and need to hear other ideas. In the long run, if fascism takes this country, I need to know that I fought it from the beginning.
I see the difference here: it is legitimate to “exploit” fear of actions the government will take. These may have greater or lesser legitimacy, depending on whether the elected official really will try to take those actions: e.g., yes, the Republicans will try to privatize Medicare; no, (they will say) they will not really try to reduce it to block grants and eliminate it; yes, the Democrats will outlaw acquiring assault weapons; no, they will not confiscate your rifles and handguns.
But what the Republicans in this cycle are doing is exploiting a free-floating fear of the stranger, the foreigner, the other. “We will protect you from Them” – and doing everything they can, whether through dog whistles or through Trumpesque hate speech, to exaggerate your distaste for and fear of Them. It isn’t necessary even to outline policies by which they will do the protecting. It is enough that they raise what may have been a mere discomfort with the Other to a fever pitch of fear, desperate to find a strong non-Other to stand in the breach and hold them off by any means to be specified later.
In short, it is either fascism or crypto-fascism.
Them bring sorrow, tears and blood. Them regular trademark.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tj1wpNuQRaM
I think you do deliberately increase our insecurity to get us to vote the way you want us too without regard for policy. That is, even if we wouldnt support Obama’s policies we should have voted for him (or stop opposing him) because of republican apocalypse. Its more accurate but its still an appeal based heavily on fear and its still irrespective of policy.
So I’m not seeing the difference you’re getting at in the second to last paragraph.
I do think that creating fear where none exists is pretty bad.
I want to add that I dont particularly see you as some moral degenerate because of it.
When hasn’t the meta-message of every GOP and DEM presidential campaign not been a combination of hope and fear? The sum of the two for each candidate can’t equal more than 100%, although many candidates fail to use up that allotment. The trick is getting the combination right in comparison with the opponents combination.
Guesstimates:
For Republicans, “exploiting fears” = “LBJ’s ‘Daisy’ video”
That one event justifies anything ever after.
And just the rumor of it made the emotional tagging of “extremism” stick. It is the ultimate youthful trauma for true believers. Worse even than the reality of Kent State for the lefties.
And Democrats are still dissing them about their cowardice.
When is it OK to remind fearmongers of their fundamental cowardice?
From Juan Cole
Not sure I understand you interpretation of LBJ’s “Daisy” ad. Personally, I think it was the greatest TV political ad of all time. First, very few actually saw it, but it was simple enough that it could be described for those that didn’t. Second, it was an answer to and illustration of Goldwater’s position — use nukes.
Cruz and Trump have opened up a vulnerability to something similar appearing in this election cycle.
Overall, LBJ didn’t run on more fear than JFK had done in 1960. Both lied but so did Nixon and Goldwater.
Of course, it was the greatest political TV ad of all time. But political ads have to push buttons and push them hard because the logic lasts only 30 seconds at most. But two years after the Cuban Missile Crisis and one year after the assassination of JFK, it did exploit residual fear to make its point of due diligence and caution, which LBJ and the military promptly forgot after election.
Who’s the next terrorist group and terrorist place could be the same sort of exploitation of fear to wake people up.
I fundamentally disagree with BooMan that exploitation of fear is off-limits in election ads. Had we known what George W. Bush actually was going to do after election, I would have loved for Gore-Lieberman (actually if you know what the actors were going to do, you would have picked someone other than Lieberman) to have hit Bush hard with a “reckless not modest” fear ad.
Hillary Clinton’s foreign policy team in waiting, especially prospective Secretary of State Patterson, does not allow any policy contrast to attack people like Trump, Cruz, or Jeb! or whoever in the clown car gets the nomination. In the general election, that cuts off the possibility of exploiting fear to gain prudence.
Glad we agree on the “Daisy” ad, and you’re correct to point out the ’61-63 backdrop events. However, instead of exploiting residual fear, I tend to see that exploited the relief of being beyond those scary days.
While Clinton wouldn’t hesitate to lie for an advantage in a campaign, also suspect you’re correct that she’s poorly positioned to pull off a “Daisy 2016” ad.
A majority of Americans seem to prefer no/low drama on the national political stage. Partisan Democrats never seemed to get how that that preference made an idiot like GWB an appealing prospect after eight years of Clinton (or that in campaign mode in ’92 and ’96 Clinton wasn’t high drama), low drama like his Dad (his high drama moments Panama and Iraq were easily forgotten because both were of short duration). Gore personally isn’t high drama, but the GWB campaign successfully turned that into “boring.” On an axis of high drama-no/low drama-boring, “just right” is in the middle.
The Intercept – Clinton, Rubio, Cruz Receive Foreign Policy Advice From Same Consulting Firm.
Whoa. That is some expensive real estate considering what we have and intend to spend over there… Gonna pave it with gold?
But that’s probably cheaper in the long run than making the sand “glow in the dark”. Seems a lot of discussion about exterior decorating.
KDrum has now explicitly addressed your post, speaking in his position as your predecessor… kind of!
http://m.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2015/12/fear-and-loathing-campaign-trail-2015
Worthy third view on this — may be another twenty or thirty other legitimate takes.
Drum is wrong to say that he should jump out of bed and run instead of rolling over and going back to sleep when an earthquake hits. Sure there might be places in a building/home that provide better protection during an earthquake than one’s bed, but that has to be weighed against the risks to get there.
I think he means he should not just go back to sleep. But you’re right about risk evaluation, its a case by case basis. In any case, because of the bone cancer he has greater risks in strenuous movement others might not right now.
Even better reason for him to stay put during an earthquake.
There are both siderism arguments here, and I don’t really like the notion of running on fear no matter what. Legitimate concern can be perceived as a fine line/razor’s edge away from Fear, and I think it’s probably hard to walk that razor’s edge and keep things in perspective.
From where I sit, our “elected representatives” – particularly at the fed level – are the worst in terms of engaging in fear tactics, most of it bogus.
My parents (may they RIP) used to be inundated by rightwing think tank snail mails – which they fell prey to as they aged – adjuring them about all sorts of horrid things that would happen if the Ds got on power.
Well frankly, Obama has definitely tried to cut Medicare – perhaps not completely, but partially. But if not Obama, would RMoney do it more and faster? Who’s to say.
Obama is more quiet about how many people in MENA that he routinely orders to be bombed and killed. This leads the rightwing to view him as a pussy & a weakling and call for ever more killing, boots on the ground, carpet bombs, etc.
Cui bono? As usual, the MIC, the Alphabets, Deep State and all the usual lobbyists who finagle system.
Playing with citizens’ fears in the Prime Directive these days, which is carried out most emphatically by Murdoch’s evil empire, aligned with Hate Radio, the various “Christian” stations, and the usual rightwing online sites.
Sure, they’re all guilty as charged, but what has the D Team actually DONE about this? How have they counteracted it either effectively or ineffectively. Maybe I missed something, but I don’t see fed D pols doing much of anything about it.
Whether D-voters/liberals/progressives/whatever see the Fear card for what it is, as shoved down our throats by the M$M… I don’t see the D-Team doing much of anything that’s really worth mentioning.
Once again, hiding behind each other’s skirts.
Cui bono is the always the main question. JMHO, of course.
LA Weekly – What Went Wrong at Porter Ranch?
Not like Flint, MI where it took a year and a half to turn off that Flint River water that led to dangerous levels of lead contamination and return to Detroit Water. Might have something to do with the fact that Porter Ranch is one of the most affluent Los Angeles communities, but not so healthy with the gas leak.
that’s a pretty good article.
This story interests me personally because that’s just a few miles from where I grew up and a couple of old friends might still have parents living up there. I don’t remember any “gated communities” back then though.
The fact that it’s a neighborhood of rich white people absolutely affects the response. A friend works for the air pollution district and says this issue has the FULL attention of his bosses. But from a public health POV it doesn’t compare to Flint.
If responding to the actually tiny risk of genuine terrorism as if it were a “not much a government can do” threat wouldn’t have left us better off in the long run. If we had respected and enforced the law, tracked down the perpetrators and hosed down the panic we would all be better off and safer too.
Seriously. For the trillions wasted in Iraq and Afghanistan, the moral burden of the dead, the almost psychotic insularity and xenophobia, the jingoism, the received wisdom of a cultural war with Islam; what’s our return on investment? Nada. Bin-Laden may still be dead but we are still reacting as he predicted we would, with predictably disastrous outcomes. He seems to have realised that only we could do ourselves such serious and lasting injury.
Please let’s stop while we can; if Trump’s unexpected ascent is a teachable moment let it teach us this.
But a stunningly interesting process story in the National Review about the Cruz strategy unfolding in early states. All my worst fears about this guy’s grasp of the nomination adroitly articulated by none other than himself.
His comments on the general election are also noteworthy if unconventional; hinting that a cohort of working-class Hispanics can be mobilised against immigration reform. Trump has more-or-less said the same. Is this really at issue? What do our psephologists claim on this point? A lot depends on Cruz and Trump being completely wrong.
I’m not so sure about his grasp of the nomination. Does Trump fold up like a cheap suit before the Iowa caucus?
The Republican electorates in IA and NH are far more different than the Democratic electorate in those two states. While “grassroot” organizing of the fundie churches does make one competitive for the popular vote, that doesn’t automatically translate into convention delegates.
Given how long Papa Cruz and Ted himself have been working the fundie and teabag circuit in Iowa, why was a newbie with no organization able to garner more support than Cruz in the polls through October. Not surprising that the first stop after Carson was exposed for half or more of his support would regress to Cruz. While the demographic was different, we did see something similar in 2012 when Cain crashed. First stop, Gingrich. He was up around 30% at this time, but fell to 13# at the caucuses. Cruz’ support above 15% is probably soft and he not an easy fit with NH.
The one with the largest ground operation was Paul which got him a respectable 3rd place popular vote finish. That ended up translating into the most IA delegates but didn’t boost his competitiveness outside IA. Where are the Paul folks this time around? My guess is with Trump. Perhaps Cruz and Trump are splitting the Gingrich and Bachmann vote. It seems to me to be somewhat more open in IA than Cruz thinks it is.
wrt to Latino vote in the GE, conceptually he’s not off base, but he’s not the guy that can pull it off. Nor can any of the others.
Polls are far from predicting caucuses in terms of who turns out and especially who has influence in the caucus meeting.
Polls are more predictive of primaries, given a good size sample close to the event.
Iowa is unpredictable; New Hampshire more predictable. Trump was able to run with Iowa based on media frenzy; for the parts of Iowa that are not “bowling alone” country, the fundie and teabag networks should deliver. But then in irony of ironies, Cruz and Papa Cruz are Hispanic. Wonder how many points that knocks off his totals. And don’t think that Trump isn’t creating networks as he elaborates his campaign.
Yep, he’s not going to get the votes of people he disses.
Did you read the link? It attempts to address, in some fashion, at least some of your comments. I guess we would all agree this is a primary contest, at least to now, full of surprises.
I am most interested in your comment about the general election however; that “conceptually he’s not off base”. I am concerned that we, as progressives, might be whistling past the graveyard on this exact point. But I don’t know the leaning of this assumed cohort of the Hispanic electorate either.
I did. Latinos are no more a single group than Asians or Europeans are. Latinos may more or less share a common language other than English (Spanish) and religion (Catholicism), they vary widely as to “home” countries and how long their families have been in the US. For some far longer than European immigrants or the western expansion of the US.
Like most immigrants from wherever, once the family is here and they’ve managed to move up a few steps on the economic ladder, they’re okay with closing the border to more immigrants. They probably hold onto their social/cultural inclinations/practices as long as other groups do in the US. However, a “macho” perspective may be retained a bit longer. The women are a bit betwixt and between which can be seen as being conservative and “traditional family oriented.” Perhaps less so when they’re young, but more so when they’re older, church-going wives and mothers. Should also note that evangelical religions seem to attract a higher percentage of those that leave the Catholic church.
It’s tough to gauge if total Latino voter participation will increase in 2016. Would expect to see a bump among women that want to exercise the power to vote for a women. OTOH, Clinton will be less attractive to men than Obama was. OTOH, Trump’s bashing of Latinos and Cruz’s overall persona reduces their chances to be viewed as Latino’s kind of macho men. (They liked Schwarzenegger). And Cuban ethnicity doesn’t carry any weight with them. The default position when neither candidate excites them is not to vote.
It’s not implausible to me in the abstract that a Republican could get 40% or more of the Latino vote, but not. gonna. happen. 2016. Democrats should be concerned about turnout. Dismal in CO 2014. Team Clinton has been signaling an interest in a Latino running mate which would probably be helpful.
That’s about the sanest discussion on the subject I’ve seen. Progressives seem to think they have the Latino vote in the bag and I’m guessing you’re right; it’s conditional on the candidate and context. The reality that “once the family is here and they’ve managed to move up a few steps on the economic ladder, they’re okay with closing the border to more immigrants” really needs to be discussed more among Democrats. We assume too much.
I agree with you about 2016; let’s not learn the wrong lessons, though. It is a demographic we are fortunate to have but which will require effort to retain in the face of an attractive Republican candidate for these voters in future contests. Thank you.
But to your main point of Trump folding up, does it matter when he does as long as it; 1. denies delegates to a moderate and 2. makes them available to an insurgent? Even if he goes all the way to the convention…
Think about that for a while and then start counting on your fingers; this is Marco’s challenge too. It seems to be on everyone’s mind:
Hmmm… On the other hand there’s the long read on other peculiarities of the GOP nomination process:
A dog’s breakfast, as the Aussies say. This is why I think a process obsessive insurgent like Cruz may potentially have a few surprises up his sleeve. I’m long popcorn futures.
Trump may have “people” working to ensure that he gets the number of delegates that his popular vote totals should entitle him to. IOW — coming in first in IA and/or NH and getting few delegates isn’t going to fly with him.
IMHO, it would be suicide for the RNC to hold a brokered convention to deny Trump the nomination should he win most of the votes and states. “Perfectly legal” isn’t going to fly with his base. Nor will scaring them with a Clinton win if they don’t vote for Cruz, Rubio, ?. If they filled out a checklist on the issues, Cruz may be more to their liking than Trump, but they don’t like him and know that even if he wins, he won’t deliver anything they want (not that they actually know what they want).
At this point I think the GOP establishment is pretty screwed unless Rubio suddenly grows massive support in unlikely places.
But I think they are desperate enough to try almost anything; it is in their nature. I assume the delegates are free to vote as they choose (by state?) after the first round; isn’t that what the Ron Paul people were gaming in 2012?
Pundits and reporters don’t seem to see this coming.
Rubio isn’t going to grow a pair. I played with all the combinations of the others except Trump and Cruz dropping out and endorsing X. (Not that it seems remotely plausible that Carson would do that.) Rubio as X didn’t come out any stronger than Jeb? as X and Christie only slightly stronger (but he could be under indictment before the GE; so, that’s too risky).
Their best strategy is to let it play out. If Trump is the voter’s choice, sobeit. He or Cruz might even be the best choice if he loses in a landslide. That will break the teabag fever and yet retain them as GOP voters. OTOH, I don’t think that Clinton is strong enough to win in a landslide even against one of the turd opponents.
That was funny; about Marco’s cojones. Like you I’ve been entertaining myself with various scenarios for the nomination; none of them look great for Rubio. Say what one will about Trump’s miraculous polling invulnerability it suggests that the electorate has different ideas this time around. No more Romneys.
What you say about breaking the Tea Party fever seems very prescient; who else would they vote for? On the other hand I am hearing the phrase “donor class” bandied about with considerable disdain in Right-wing comments and that’s new. I think income inequality is part of the white lower and middle class angst and they are slowly waking up to the schism in their own party. A solid year of Trump campaigning and, say, a stolen nomination just might yield some “Trump Democrats” in elections to come.
If we could only convince our own party to unglue itself from the blood funnel long enough to protect us from increasingly unsustainable financial predation.
If we’re honest, we’d admit that there are enough smart and educated people that also take the time to be informed about government policies for democracies to work all that well. Hence the recurring proposals for a select few that are all those things to choose the candidates, the nominees or even the selected one. Yet, we know that such individual qualities, while necessary, aren’t sufficient because there’s even less goodwill for all peoples within the ranks of elites than there is amongst the general population.
Informally, ordinary people depend on those that they think are smart and not corrupt to tell them how to vote. Generally people are just arrogant enough that the view themselves as being immune to exploitation or manipulation. Decades of mass media has likely increased the level of that self-assessment within the population. It’s extremely difficult for someone that truly means well for all and is smart, etc. enough to carry that off as an elected official to break through the muck and into the the hearts and minds of voters.
Elizabeth Warren is one of those rare people and early on was appreciated for those qualities by just enough people that a run for the Senate was possible. Still, with a top-notch real DEM candidate and in very “blue” MA, the Republican that had none of Warren’s qualities received 46% of the vote. (She’ll win re-election with well over 60%.)
We now have had decades of Democrats blaming Republicans for all our woes and vice versa and it’s reached the point where neither Democrats nor Republicans have much capacity to reflect on how, much less why, their chosen reps aren’t serving them or the general welfare. Not sure that “general welfare” even computes for a majority anymore. They sure don’t seem able to comprehend that the Iraq War sucked four (or more) trillion dollars out of a potential general welfare budget or what we could have had instead (not that there was ever choice between the Iraq War or X; it was the Iraq War or nothing because there’s always money for war and not much for X.)
Miles left to go in Iowa – but Cruz is almost exactly where Huckabee was at this point in 2008. He probably wins it.
The Hew Hampshire electorate is completely different, but the South Carolina electorate looks a lot more like Iowa than New Hampshire.
If Cruz wins Iowa NH becomes a struggle to see if Trump can be beaten, and who the third candidate is from Bush, Christie, Rubio and Kasich.
Careful with that “at this point” comparison. The 2008 and 2012 IA caucuses were on January 3. This election cycle they will be held on February 1. So the appropriate “at this point” comparison is the mid-November polls in 2008 and 2012.
DMR had Santorum at 6% and Gingrich at 25%. By 12/19 Rasmussen (the lead standard) nailed it (+/-1%) for Paul, Romney, Perry, and Bachmann. Too high for Newt by 4 points and Huntsman 3 points and too low for Santorum by 15 points. The other pollsters got there a week or so later and picked up on more of the movement to Santorum, but none were all that close to his actual caucus number.
The thing is that Huckabee was a more natural fit for the IA “fundie” vote than Cruz is and there was no competition for that vote in ’08. In the last two months Huck and Mitt were running neck and neck as Guiliani collapsed. And as in ’12 an extra 5-8% for the most easily identifiable religious conservative materialized at the caucus. Cruz could be that guy this time around — even if I can’t see his religious appear — but that seems to hurt more than help on the next stop.
There are 41 days until Iowa.
On 11/28 (36 days before Iowa) The Des Moines Register had it 29-24 Huckabee.
not to quibble but 38 days.
DMR’s most recent poll is 52 days from the caucus. That’s two weeks earlier than the ’08 poll you’re citing.
In ’08 all of the pollsters had Romney at about 25% for months with no detectable movement to or from him. DMR polled in May and not again until 10/3 (so, internal verification can’t be observed). By 11/28 DMR (the gold standard) was no more accurate than Rasmussen (the lead standard) wrt to Huck and Mitt. (Although being off by 5+ percentage points for leading a candidate isn’t exactly accurate.) DMR had Rudy at 13% — off by 10%. My point is that final breaks/sorting occurred in the last three weeks. Huck didn’t pull into the lead until the last month and DMR only “nailed” it four days before the caucus and four days before 2012 was still far off the mark for Santorum.
At this point, I do think it’s too early to call a “flight to Cruz.” Not too early to project no gains for Carson, but too early to project that he’ll drop further from his 10%. Trump (like Romney) does seem stuck at around 25% and doubt that he’ll do much better than that, but he could do worse.
Check out Q 12/22 poll report page 4. Iowa will differ on the mind made up/might change question – would guess higher on the former and lower on the latter.
Anyway
Trump supporters: “made up” 63% and might change 36%
Cruz supporter: made up 36% and might change 64%
Consistent with how long one has supported a candidate.
Clinton: 59%/38% respectively solid for a candidate with such a large lead.
Sanders: 55%/44% – quite decent. Particularly compared to Cruz who has been in the race longer than Sanders has and doesn’t poll as well among Republicans as Sanders does Democrats.
Remember that since 9/11 there have only been 3 people per year killed by jihadist terrorists in a country of 390 million.
https:/www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2015/12/10/why-do-we-freak-out-about-terrorism-any
way-heres-why-we-shouldnt
Is there ANY mortality statistic that is that low? Choking to death on a toothbrush?
HRW – UN: Rights Council Fails Yemeni Civilians, Saudi Pressure Derails Bid for International Inquiry.
Amb Power – “Grim briefing on Yemen …”
Billmon:
PHUCK.OUTTA.HERE.
They wanna cling to the Whiteness…let them.
not my problem.
Barack Obama has been a better President to them than they deserved…phuck ’em.
Why Obama Must Reach Out to Angry Whites
White America, fast becoming a minority, needs to hear reassurances from somebody other than Trump.
By Issac J. Bailey
December 22, 2015
THIS is what they have produced.
THIS is who they are.
THIS is a damn shame.
And, I still say, juxtapose Muslim with Jew.
America with Germany.
2015 with 1937-38.
And, you will see that there’s not a damn bit of difference.
Except, there were no Nazi Soldiers telling the Jews that they’re not coming for them.
……………………………………….
#IWillProtectYou: U.S. service members soothe scared Muslim girl
8:11 p.m. EST December 22, 2015
U.S. service members are using the hashtag #IWillProtectYou to show support for a young Muslim girl who believed her family would be forced to flee following Donald Trump’s call to ban Muslims from the country.
Melissa Chance Yassini of Dallas, Texas, said she came home Dec. 8, to find her 8-year-old daughter packing her bags, Upworthy reported.
Yassini said her daughter was terrified after she heard Trump call for a ban on all Muslims entering the country following the San Bernardino massacre.
“Sad day in America when I have to comfort my 8-year-old child who heard that someone with yellow hair named Trump wanted to kick all Muslims out of America,” Yassini wrote in a Facebook post on Dec. 9.
In response to Trump’s words, Yassini said her daughter began “collecting all her favorite things in a bag in case the army “came to remove the family from their home.”
“She checked the locks on the door 3-4 times,” Yassini wrote. “This is terrorism. No child in America deserves to feel that way.”
The post quickly went viral, and it wasn’t long before Army veteran Kerri Peek saw it, according to Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
Peek decided to take action.
“Post a picture of you in uniform with the hashtag#IWillProtectYou to let these children know that we will not hurt them,” Peek wrote in a Dec. 17 Facebook post. “That they are safe here in America. That we will protect innocents as we always have.”
I don’t see any point in repeating what has already been written here about Trump’s “exploiting fear” being better described as “hate mongering”.
Instead, I want to raise the issue of politicians exploiting human suffering.
I expect many readers here will remember the cynical use of photos of people jumping to their deaths from the burning Twin Towers to score political points about “terrorism” and why we just had to invade Iraq, say.
Exploiting human suffering for political purposes is beneath contempt.