Bernie Sanders is running a strong campaign but he’s still a long shot. He doesn’t have much margin of error at all. His biggest obstacle from the beginning has been the perception that a self-described socialist cannot win the general election. This hasn’t gone away.
Kathleen Jurgens, an Iowa Democrat, walked into a Clinton rally this week in Council Bluffs torn between the two. But an hour later, she said she was sold on Clinton’s pitch that she was the only candidate who could stop a Republican from winning the White House.
“I really like Bernie. He’s outspoken and he doesn’t seem as political,” Jurgens told CNN. “But at this point, you really have to look at electability and Hillary really impressed me.”
Overcoming this perception won’t be easy, but poll numbers that show him as more electable give him an empirical argument that is invaluable.
Sanders has also seen encouraging polls out of Iowa, where he is running neck-and-neck, and in New Hampshire, where he’s seeing a narrow but persistent lead. If he can win those first two contests and continue to show as the stronger general election candidate in the polls, he has a chance to make this into a long and very competitive process.
However, I’m willing to say that he has to do all three of these things or the campaign will be brief and decisive.
It might not be popular to say, but if Sanders can’t win in Iowa and New Hampshire, he’s very unlikely to win elsewhere. Both states are overwhelmingly white. The caucus process in Iowa favors the candidate with the hottest rhetoric because only a subset of very politically engaged Democrats participate. New Hampshire borders Sanders’s home state of Vermont and is filled with like-minded New Englanders who share Bernie’s worldview.
South Carolina and Nevada are much bigger challenges for Sanders and he is very lucky that those contests don’t come first. If he is going to be competitive there, he’s going to need to change perceptions about him by winning the first two states and showing that he’s still a better bet to beat the Republicans in the general election.
Barack Obama almost pulled off a one-two knockout in 2008, but when he unexpectedly blew a small lead in New Hampshire, it created a months-long battle for the nomination. And Obama had strengths within the Democratic Party that Sanders simply doesn’t enjoy. I do not believe Sanders can afford to stumble and still think he can win the long game. His position is more akin to the position Bill Bradley was in in 2000 or maybe that Howard Dean was in in 2004.
In fact, I am not convinced that Sanders will be even-odds to win even if he does deliver one-two blows in Iowa and New Hampshire. It’s just that this is an absolute prerequisite for him if he is going to have any chance.
Of course, now that he has Tommy Chong on his side, maybe he’ll prove unstoppable.
Whether or not Bernie Sanders wins any of the states is a good question and who knows. By the way with the way that the MSM is ignoring the Sanders Campaign. I find it very likely that the majority of voters will not know for sure for weeks after the elections are over(snark). The MSM is a major issue for the Sanders Campaign and that sad to say is jsut how things are right now.
this seems to be overblown, all the energy in the media is covering the GOP circus
Neither Democratic candidate gets much attention since they’re both 2 sane to be entertaining.
Eh. Right now I think that it’s slightly to Sanders’ benefit that he’s being ignored by the MSM.
If Obama and/or Warren really wanted to, they could’ve squished Sanders like a bug. It’s a little too late to do that now without permanently impacting their credibility, but the fact that Obama likely didn’t see Sanders as a threat and didn’t endorse Hillary Clinton back in Summer or early Fall 2015 is one of the biggest bullets the campaign dodged.
The MSM’s hunger to fill the airwaves will eventually override their fealty to their corporate pimpmasters. So if Sanders does well in Iowa and NH, the dam will break and we’ll really see what he’s got. Because as troublesome as a viable social democrat is to the plutocracy’s propaganda arm, there’s nothing the MSM likes more than to watch a Clinton squirm.
why do you think Obama would support Hillary? she basically betrayed him, going around his authority as CIC and her boss 1, with the email server, 2. not disclosing all foreign donors to the Clinton Foundation and 3 tried to get him into a mess with Russia vis a vis Ukraine. (evidently). I think he was supporting Joe Biden and probably supports Bernie
I think that Obama believes in the dreams and goals of the New Democrats more than he hates HRC. Sort of like how the Republican Party elite would/will swallow their pride and support Trump if he wins the nomination despite the fact that many of them loathe his guts.
completely, completely disagree with your reading of Obama; where to start? foreign policy, for one, he’s working to shift usa fp to a non-hegemonic leadership role (this is the phrasing of international affairs profs with whom I’ve had multiple discussions]. as far as domestic policy goes, imo he’s thoroughly a community organizer which means very pragmatic. Yastreblyansky had an interesting essay on Obama’s strategy using a soccer analogy.
at some point I’ll find Y.’s blog post – I’m supposed to be working right now, but will reply to you upon occasion on this topic. I think Obama’s pragmatism means he rarely takes things personally, that’s just his personality, but I think the Hillary “betrayal” he takes very personally. note how he promoted Joe Biden at White House Correspondents dinner last year – that was after info came out about the Clinton Foundation. will look out for how it plays out this year.
this is interesting
http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/1/11/1468654/-Biden-praises-Sanders-on-Income-Equality-Clinton-
relatively-new-to-the-fight
When Sanders first entered the race, my concern was his age. Seeing his energy level and healthiness along with recognizing how well the older and not as objectively healthy looking Papa Francis, I was able to persuade myself that Sanders is healthy enough. In conversation yesterday with my not as liberal as me Sis, she said that she has trouble getting on board with Sanders because of his age. Not sure after I walked her though my thought process on this if she has reconciled that issue in her own mind.
It doesn’t matter whose side your on, who you like, who you hate, whose curdling your milk. Most of the Nation does not realize the absolute depth of differences between Vermont and NH (unless you’re really interested in politics). If Sanders can’t win in NH, its going to make it REAL tough to explain to the rest of the country why he can win outside his back yard, but not right next door.
I have a delegate estimate (link below) that takes the normal bounce when when a front runner loses and projects each state (making an allowance for the African American vote where Sanders has significant problems.).
Right now it projects Sanders 2030, Clinton 2019 if Sanders wins Iowa and New Hampshire. This is elected delegates only.
It always amazes me how little people actually look at numbers before making statements about primaries.
One thing virtually every analyst is missing: Sanders has problem in the African American Community – NOT in the Hispanic community. Sanders favorables are actually slightly better than Clintons. Moreover the cross tabs among people of color in the last California poll show Sanders at over 30%.
The Hispanic vote becomes critical in Nevada, but also on Super Tuesday (see Texas). People are missing this dimension of the race.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dYGT7kqexlkjtOSyLWH5MYipoCnCS5Kwkr89TEtkMqg/edit#gid=9118138
70
One thing virtually every analyst is missing: Sanders has problem in the African American Community – NOT in the Hispanic community.
Because he’s an unfamiliar name! Also, a lot of the community leaders, if they know the Clintons at all, are afraid of pissing them off.
Kinda puts an exclamation point on the whole thing, doncha think?
Hopefully this changes if Bernie shows them, he like President Obama has the political ability to beat the Clinton Political machine.
I’d be very interested in hearing more about reception of Sanders in the AA community; I’m surprised Hillary has AA support at all after Bill’s racist dogwhistling in 08. What’s the story?
Of note is that 2008 Obama lost every racial category except blacks, and pretty badly. He got 40% of whites, and only about a third of Asians and Latinos.
I think that it’d be delicious irony if Sanders won with a racial demographic margin that 2008 HRC got. Passive demographic growth would’ve made Hillary in 2008 a winner in 2016 — assuming that she didn’t screw up the caucuses, of course.
I’m going with “the campaign will be brief and decisive.” The media, like her friend Chris Matthews, makes it a point to plug her and leave Sanders out. She has money, influence and organization,the bestest ever at being the lesser of two. But I will be happy to be wrong. Oddly, Trump could be an ally if he continues the nonsense against Bill.
It’s gonna be very hard for a professional media sycophant like “tweety” to ignore Bernie if he wins both Iowa and NH.
Never liked tweety much, and like him less over time.
Winners of both Iowa and New Hampshire always win the Democratic nomination, sometimes the presidency as well: