So,
See below for the trips. I am struck by how little Clinton invested in keeping her most likely path to 270 protected (which was always VA, CO, PA and the upper midwest).
It may have been a product of desperation, but Trump was more spread out, and didn’t miss a state decided by less then 5.
Bloomberg has spending through Nov 2.
Clinton didn’t spend in WI until the last week, in Michigan AT ALL, in MN at all, Her heaviest spending was in Ohio, Florida and North Carolina, none of which were in her most likely path to 270.
In both ad spending and in campaign trips she left the back door open, and it cost her the White House.
Here is a link to the spending $.
Clinton’s trips: October 1 to Nov 1:
9 to Florida (lost by 1)
8 to Ohio (lost by 8)
4 to PA (lost by 1)
1 to CO (won by 3)
1 to NV (won by 3)
3 to NC (lost by 5)
2 to IA (lost by 10)
1 to NH (won by 1)
O trips to:
WI – lost by 1
MI – lost by 1
ME – won by 2
MN – won by 2
Trump
7 to FL – won by 1
6 to OH – won by 10
5 to NH and Maine (won ME EV, lost NH by 1)
5 to PA (won by 1)
5 to CO – lost by 3
4 to MI (won by 1)
4 to NC (won by 5)
1 to WI (won by 1)
3 to NV
1 to AZ
Twenty-nine campaign appearances v. forty. The map also highlights how close to home Hillary stayed. Also, their belief that money was the key to winning meant more big dollar fundraisers that took up the candidate’s time. And a lot of that money isn’t appearing in this presentation as it into coffers that spent on her behalf.
My take from the spending and travel schedule is that her team wasn’t focused on getting 270, which they calculated was in the bag, but focused on getting as close as possible to the hoped for landslide.
Even Gore’s unimpressive campaign recognized when to not dump more resources into the lost cause in OH and his loss margin ended being half that of Clinton’s.
However, ultimately she wasn’t the sort of candidate that drew large crowds at rallies. A factor that she has long dismissed as irrelevant. Didn’t help Obama to get more votes than her in ’08 and didn’t help Sanders to it either.
She was fundraising.
I agree – the path to 270 wasn’t at the head of their concerns.
I don’t think they ever believed losing was a possibility.
Partially group-think. They never factored in that Democrats had said no to her in ’08 and she was more wrong in ’16 then she’d been in ’08.
But those of us that didn’t succumb to the Hillary group-think, weren’t inoculated from the “Trump is so ludicrous that he can’t possibly win” group-think. We only got as far as recognizing that her EV margin would be skinny, and some of us never saw more than a thin popular vote margin and considered a Trump thin popular vote margin as a possibility.
A “time for a change” national mood does set in during eighth year of a President’s term in office. If give the opposing party an entering edge; the amount of the edge ranges from slight if the sitting POTUS enjoys favorable ratings as to performance and personality to substantial if she/he falls significantly short on both. How well the two nominees are able to work that edge or overcome the deficit shows up in the election results.
Could you include a map of her travel to high stakes fundraisers? Busy schedule!
Michael Moore analyzes:
That is insufficient data to evaluate the strategies.
How the money was spent makes a difference. Neither side spent much on yard signs this year, for example. And both spent gobs on online commercials, the placement of which has no attributable location unless someone is keeping that data.
Trump used the purchase of ballcaps to finance his campaign and to get out to the grassroots. Hillary’s campaign did the usual swag for sale.
On the visits, it matters where the candidate goes. Hillary went to her strongholds to attract the media attention to large numbers of faithful attendees. Trump went to some lesser places and even to Clinton strongholds that were major cities.
In NC, did Clinton ever get to Greensboro, Greenville, Goldsboro, or Wilmington. Those are places she lost, as well as the hinterlands they contain. Did she ever show up and talk with people in rural areas after Iowa?
In PA, did she go to Harrisburg, Altoona, Allentown, or Wilkes-Barre?
Did she actually do a repeat of the Ohio River campaign tour that she and Bill did in 1992? If she had, she should have picked up on the vibes that underlay what defeated her campaign?
How much funding was overhead in Brooklyn?
Were there any opportunities for people to see other than the media image?
Likely not, because the hostility generated against the Clintons pinned them within the Secret Service bubble.
The PVI showed WI and MI both as blue states. That was deceptive; both states are run by Republicans, and both states have means of voter suppression greater than what they used to have. Their pollsters failed by assuming 2012 patterns.
Trump wasn’t exactly mr. energizer on the campaign trail either. He went where he could get enough people at a big rally that the media would have to report it.
Neither would have fared as well if his/her opponent had been as young as Obama was in ’08. Both are old and overweight. During the primaries I described both of them as being treated like hot-house flower candidates.
Here’s some answers to your questions and wrong suppositions: ProPublica/Truthdig — Alec McGillis Hillary Clinton and Democrats’ Fatal Error: Writing Off White Workers in the Rust Belt .
And you know what, little in McGillis’ report surprised me because it was mostly the same stuff I’d trying to explain here for months. Often roundly attacked for saying so.
Y’all are really wedded to this idea that it was only Hillary’s hubris that caused this result. While there is some truth to your critiques, it misses the big picture.
This election was about the failure of our institutions. The Constitution, Democratic Party, President, FBI, and Media all failed miserably. There are other factors that created this mess but those were the main ones.
Perhaps the biggest one was the media. They gave him $2-3 billion in free advertising. They gave him a free reign until September. They never really made him suffer for his outlandish behavior. I don’t know how many times an AJ Delgado or Boris Epshteyn would get on MSNBC and some clueless Kossack would post a Diary “Joy Ann Reid Eviscerates Trump Stooge.” The first few times I would get real excited and read the diary that had hundreds of recommends, only to find out I had already seen the clip. For one of Delgado’s lies or grossly misleading statements Reid would burrow down and try to get a retraction or point out the inaccuracy. Unfortunately, 5-10 others would be just as egregious, but left to percolate into our subconscious. This is the power of the Big Lie and propaganda. Then Delgado would be on Chris Hayes next show and the process would repeat itself. Instead of banning these spokesmen and Trump from their airwaves back in August of last year, they just allowed themselves to be used and blamed the voters. There was a conflict of interest with NBC entities, since Trump had a business relationship.
I won’t bore you with the other bad actors, except to say Comey’s 3 interjections into the election may have been the only reason she lost, even with the media dereliction of duty. Every time e-mails died down with voters I spoke too, Comey had to give us an update and it was all they could talk about and they hated her again.
I really don’t know how we go forward since No Drama Obama seems perfectly fine with this shit. I cancelled my cable package and subscription to the Washington Post. Not that it makes any difference, but my blood pressure can’t take any more of their disinformation campaigns.
Perhaps the biggest one was the media. They gave him $2-3 billion in free advertising.
The would be 80-95% of the media that currently acknowledges that they were in the tank for Hillary from day one. So why would they give Trump all those freebies? Differentiate between the primary election cycle and the general election cycle and I’m sure you can figure it out.