This is the estimate from key precincts which was very accurate in the first round.
Turnout was down, and the polls understated Macron’s final margin.
The UK polls show a blowout for the Tories, though there is a pretty big spread in the margin. Part of the reason is the collapse of the UK IP Party, for obvious reasons.
Good news that Macron has apparently done a bit better than the polls were predicting. Should be a bit easier for him and his still new-born En Marche party (admittedly I use the term party very loosely) to secure a working majority in Parliament. If nothing else, it appears that in much of the developed world, the firewalls against right-wing nationalism are holding. As for the UK, UKIP’s implosion does not surprise me. Their dirty work is done, and the Tories have essentially absorbed its voters. Labour is looking more and more like it is toast. Ideologically I should love Corbyn, but the poor sod can’t seem to lead his way out of a paper bag.
I don’t think it’s possible for a brand-new, basically fake party to get a working majority in the French Parliament. Given how splintered the electorate is and how much disparity there is between regions even a strong party would have a hard time getting a majority. I’m expecting a profoundly hung parliament, which, given France’s constitution, is workable for a basically status quo government, which is what Macron is probably aiming for.
Last I read in the Guardian, En Marche had only 14 candidates readied for parliamentary elections, although the intention was to field a full slate of candidates – although I too am skeptical of being able to do so in such a short time frame. Macron would have to pull in the more centrist factions of the two major parties as a means of getting any significant work done – at least enough to not become as unpopular as Hollande once all is said and done. You are likely right in asserting this is essentially a status quo government, run by a candidate who (“outsider” status notwithstanding) ran a status quo campaign. In the meantime, LePen is hinting at dissolving Front National and forming a new nationalist party. Maybe that will fool a few folks, but getting rid of the stench of neo-Nazism is going to be a tall order for her.
14, eh? That’s even worse than I thought.
Hollande didn’t become unpopular because he couldn’t get things done. He was pretty effective in terms of legislative accomplishments. The problem was that a lot of what he did was very unpopular – notably making it easier to fire people. With 5 parties corresponding to the 5 major candidates, a jungle primary system, and both the far left and right supporting a number of similar policies it’s really hard to predict what could come out of the French parliament. These messy politics aren’t necessarily bad – the 3rd Republic had notoriously messy politics but still managed overall to reform in the correct direction most of the time.
Taking away benefits from citizens is inevitably a formula for losing political capital. I know there are some structural problems with the EU that seem to favor austerity to one degree or another. If Macron is a more forceful voice for reform on that front, he may be worthwhile as something more than merely the guy who was less bad than the nationalist. Remains to be seen.
It would appear that some predictions made here that the French working class would turn out for Le Pen and elect her president were, uh, a bit off. I await acknowledgment of that.
I don’t know who predicted that.
I predicted a squeaker, but thought Macron would win:
http://www.boomantribune.com/comments/2017/4/18/175429/416/14#14
I think that if you add the “blanc” votes, Macron would be a squeaker or be under 51%.
Your point? This is a very easy one to correctly analyze.
Why do you even respond anymore?
Because you once seemed like a smart young cookie and I liked you very much. While you probably can’t appreciate this today, it pains me to see someone toss aside budding astute observation and analytical skills in favor of sloppy and conformist thinking. When I was your age, I benefited greatly from those in my personal and work circles that kicked my butt whenever I had such a lapse. And I did the same in similar situations with trainees and subordinates. They may not have liked me in the moment, but they always thanked me later.
Being popular is easy. Being respected is a long-term proposition and requires a thick skin.
OK, this was very funny.
Masterful persuasion technique.
That does not count the “blanc” votes. I have been told that they were always counted before but not this time. Also was told that they were very high, but it was a telephone call. No link.
Your link is to a diary and thread on the first round and not the second.
I projected an easy 2nd round win for Macron. (So, easy that it wasn’t even worth a second round diary from me — after I’d done three somewhat comprehensive diaries on the first round.) The debate most likely made it that much easier. French republicans are very conservative, but neo-nazis aren’t their kind of fascists.
But I do know who very much disagreed with me. And if all of you give me credit for calling both rounds (even though it pained me to call the 1st for Macron and Le Pen), I might just share that.
I went back around 150 posts trying to find my prediction. That’s what I found. IIRC, I thought Le Pen might win, not that she would definitely win. If you can find another link, please post it.
Do you mean capital-R Republicans where you wrote “republicans”? In French usage, “republican” would refer simply to values associated with the French Republic and does not refer to a political party.
Can’t let this comment stand. If you’d brushed up and/or studied the French political parties before you wrote multiple diaries on the foregone conclusion of the second round, you would have known exactly what I was saying.
(BTW in blogging when a diarist has put in time and effort on an issue, topic, area of interest, etc. that hasn’t been covered by others and is following developments and posting updates, it’s rude to poach the turf that diarist has developed. Particularly with a crap diary.)
de Gualle is the French party of republicans regardless of the multiple new names the principle party has adopted over the decades and all the splinter parties that trace their roots to Gaullism. They vote and they “come home” to the best of their ability on election day. Le Pen has never been and never will be home to republicans/gaullists.
Well, I have not figured out how to link to a comment, but see the comments by Arthur Gilroy in this thread.
http://www.boomantribune.com/comments/2017/4/24/132342/614/2#2
I got that by right clicking “Parent” in a reply. I got my own from my list of comments. Don’t know how to get anyone else’s if there is no reply, hence no Parent link.
I’ll also stand with this .
And fladem’s comment on it.
I’d like to hear fladem flesh out a bit his statement that Le Pen was worse than Le Donald.
Le Pen isn’t worse than Trump — her politics are just well known in France and Trump has none.
I wouldn’t be too harsh about wrong predictions, not after the sure-thing of Hillary’s election offered by 99% of the punditariat, and Brexit defeat before that.
After the polls in France were rather accurate about predicting 1st-round voting, and after not much happened in the first week of campaigning for the final round, it was fairly clear Macron would win. Only a matter of predicting the size of his victory.
I think I had it probably 65-35 in my non-predictive way, and said I would be surprised if she reached 40%, which would have helped her for 2022 prospects.
LP is supposed to be embarking on a re-organizing of her party, which seems needed as she and her party are perceived as having underperformed expectations. It will have to consist of more than just polishing up some lingering image problems (racism and antisemitism most notably).
Meanwhile I still like Mélenchon’s prospects for ’22, especially if the damaged PS has no one as personally dynamic or fresh waiting in the wings. If not, there does seem an opening for Mél to take his new party and work to absorb the socialist wing of the PS and create something sufficiently appealing and broad-based enough for that party to make it to the final round next time.
On this one, we can be harsh with those that predicted a close race or a Le Pen win.
Difficult to project a scenario that would be more favorable to LP than the 2017 second round.
Mélenchon’s message should resonate better in the coming years, but he may not be the best messenger. He’s in that difficult position that several of the candidates were in (Juppé, Sarkozy, Hollande, and Valls), negatives too high for a candidate that is reasonably well known. Plus, he’s not so young.
Also, didn’t he want to abandon the Euro? That can’t be popular with older voters who remember the unstable franc. The Euro is one of the good things about the EU, although it could probably be a little looser.
You’ve harped on this before, but exactly when was the Franc so unstable? How has that Euro “stability” worked out for Greece, Spain, and Italy? The gripe of the Eu monetarists is that structurally France spends too much of GDP in providing goodies and over-regulates labor. (Macron aims to correct that — likely with some shock therapy.) Will a stable Euro compensate for working for fewer Euros, working longer hours and more years, more out of pocket costs for transport, health, and education? If all that worked as advertised, the US should be a paradise.
When I was a teenager. Hence, when any French voter my age was a teenager. Germany didn’t force France into monetary union. The Mark was much stronger than the Franc. Greece begged to be allowed in. They didn’t want to be Zimbabwe.
Stable money doesn’t mean austerity. It means that politicians can’t buy votes with watered down money. A certain level (varies with the current economy) of taxation is needed to provide that stability. In the USA, it seems that Greenspan’s (and Volcker’s) Fed did that by jacking up interest rates, which is really a tax on debtors paid to the banks instead of the government. Either way it takes money out of circulation.
IOW — circa 1965. The Euro introduced January 1999. Big time gap between those two points in time.
What politician thinks in terms of buying “votes with watered down money?”
There are many disconnects in the taxation, interest rates, and “stable money” (inflation) equation. A major one that you left out is what governments do with tax receipts and you also elided “the economy” and that involves all those factors plus many others. There are also cultural differences that factor into government economic decisions.
Germans/Germany and Switzerland are culturally low debt, high savings, and high stability for basic life necessities. Problem, savers need borrowers to maintain the value of those savers. Interestingly, the home ownership rate in Germany and Switzerland is much lower than in other EU countries, the UK, and US. The opposite of what the ordinary person believes leads to financial stability and notions of saving.
An example worth reading:
Somebody’s Going to Suffer: Greece’s New Austerity Measures
To fully appreciate the Greek trap, what can’t be overlooked is all the cash EU and US bankers threw at Greece and its residents. Bloomberg (a decade late) described one aspect of this How the 2004 Olympics Triggered Greece’s Decline. With a much larger country and economy, Brazil will still suffer economically from the short-term prestige of hosting the summer Olympics.
I liked his campaign, many of his positions (pro-Russia, anti-Nato, tough on Germany’s dominance; high tax on wealthy), his feistiness, and his ultra-modern campaigning style. Sure, he’s not young, but in 2022 would still be viable (if barely) and years younger than Hillary or Bernie if they run again.
And he has a few yrs to flesh out or adjust some of his current positions upon further reflection.
Granted, I might prefer someone younger if s/he is a candidate of substance and spark. Perhaps the Left will produce someone truly of the left in the next 4-5 yrs, maybe another 39 yo of dynamic personality, with eyes bluer than robins’ eggs, a non-banker and not married to a spouse 24 yrs older.
There is time for that someone to come along. Meanwhile, Mél looks poised to build upon the momentum he had at the end and give it another try.
I share your opinion of Melenchon and his campaign. I’m just thinking five years down the road.
Macron is young, but he’s not dynamic or attractive. He has that creepy teacher’s pet persona.
We know how this guy came out of nowhere to capture a run-off spot. The game plan to pit him against a “pied piper” was done more effectively than it was in the US because Le Pen is a known quantity and can’t win. Clever how Fillon was batted down.
One quality that differentiates a true leader from those that gain control of or a substantial amount of public acceptance in any country is recognizing when it’s time to pass the baton and having built a strong bench of others ready for the hand off. That’s one that not even FDR managed to accomplish; although he briefly came close. And by that I don’t mean passing the baton to a son/daughter/wife — that’s only an attempt to continue to rule by proxy or create a family dynasty.
We rubes have the illusion that we choose the next one, but the reality is that those with power and wealth choose who is best to get more for themselves.